For a current storm’s position, forecast track, advisories, watches and warnings, use the National Hurricane Center (NHC) tracker. For Atlantic water temperatures and broader ocean-atmosphere conditions, use NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) hurricane monitoring page. These maps answer different questions: the NHC cone forecasts a storm center’s likely track, while CPC maps show basin conditions—not whether a particular town will be hit.
Which hurricane season map should you use?
| Map or product | Purpose and time horizon | Geography | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHC live storm tracker | Current storm positions, advisories, forecast tracks, watches and warnings | Individual storms and areas covered by NHC products | Operational; check for the latest advisory |
| CPC hurricane monitoring | Sea-surface temperature and atmospheric conditions | Atlantic basin context | Monitoring maps and animations; observations change over time |
| CPC seasonal outlook | Probabilistic estimate of overall basin activity for the season | Season-wide basin activity, not a local community | Seasonal outlook; not a landfall forecast |
For immediate local risk, pair the NHC forecast with local National Weather Service information and local officials’ guidance. A seasonal outlook or an environmental map cannot substitute for a storm-specific forecast or local warning.
Where to track a current storm and its official alerts
The NHC is the official source for tropical cyclone forecasts, advisories, cone graphics, and current watches or warnings. Start at hurricanes.gov and open the storm’s latest advisory and map. Storm status changes, so a map captured earlier is not a reliable current update. On October 3, 2026, the NHC page showed no Atlantic tropical cyclone at the captured moment; that is a dated observation, not a season summary or an indication of future risk.
For a particular place, also check local NWS forecasts and alerts and your local government’s evacuation-zone information. NOAA guidance distinguishes a watch, when an impact is possible, from a warning, when it is expected or happening. Follow local officials’ instructions, including evacuation orders.
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What the hurricane cone does—and does not—show
The operational cone represents the forecast path of the storm’s center over the forecast period. It is not a boundary around all dangerous conditions, and NOAA states that “The cone does NOT represent the size of the storm in any way.” Tropical-storm-force winds, rain, surge and other hazards can extend beyond the cone; serious impacts can also reach well inland.
For 2026, the NHC operational display includes coastal and inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in covered U.S. areas: the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. It uses one shading across the five-day cone. Treat those alert layers as separate official products, not as proof that all places inside the cone face the same effects.
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The experimental cone is a separate product
The NHC is testing an experimental ellipse-based cone anchored on forecast points. It represents 90% of track possibilities, compared with the traditional cone’s basis in 67% of past forecast errors. Those percentages describe how track uncertainty is represented; neither is the probability that a particular location will be struck. NOAA also warns that technical issues can affect the experimental product’s timeliness or availability, so keep its experimental status in mind and use operational advisories for official information.
Where to see Atlantic water temperatures and other conditions
NOAA CPC’s Monitoring Hurricane Potential page links to Atlantic sea-surface-temperature (SST) maps, animations and recent-week views. It also provides products for winds, vertical wind shear and precipitable water. Together, these graphics help show the environment across the basin; they are not a single-number threat score for a coastal town, and SST alone does not determine whether a storm will form or where it will go.
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The monitoring page’s footer says it was last modified May 27, 2015. Its linked maps and observations are the changing information to examine, rather than the page’s footer date as a timestamp for every graphic. Read the product dates and labels on the maps themselves.
What the 2026 seasonal outlook says—and what it cannot say
NOAA CPC updated its 2026 Atlantic outlook on August 6, 2026. It assigned a 75% chance of below-normal activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity and a 5% chance of above-normal activity. The outlook’s ranges were 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes, with a 70% probability for each activity range. The ranges included the two named storms recorded by that time. For comparison, CPC lists 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes as the 1991–2020 averages.
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These are probabilistic estimates of total basin activity, not forecasts of how many storms will make landfall or which communities will be affected. CPC explicitly says its outlook is not a seasonal landfall forecast and does not predict activity for any particular location. A season forecast cannot establish whether your area is safe; use storm-specific NHC forecasts and local alerts as conditions develop.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Read the hazard, not just the track
A storm’s forecast center track is only one part of the risk. Different hazards require attention to different warnings and local information:
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- Storm surge: Coastal inundation can be life-threatening. Use official surge forecasts and local evacuation guidance.
- Heavy-rain flooding: Flooding can occur far inland and well away from the forecast center.
- Destructive wind: Wind impacts are not limited to the cone’s center line or coastal areas.
- Tornadoes: Tropical systems can produce tornado threats; heed local watches and warnings.
- High surf and rip currents: Dangerous coastal water conditions can affect areas beyond the immediate storm track.
Do not infer safety from a location outside the cone, a lower seasonal outlook, an empty tracker, or a storm’s category. NOAA recommends acting before a storm, keeping multiple ways to receive forecasts and alerts, and preparing an emergency kit. A kit supports—not replaces—a household plan, local warnings or evacuation instructions.
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