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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteThe forecast cone and the wind-field map answer different questions. The cone shows uncertainty about where the tropical cyclone’s center may travel. The wind-field map shows where sustained tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds could extend, based on the latest forecast wind radii. Neither graphic is a guaranteed impact boundary or a personal safety forecast.
Use the cone for track uncertainty, the wind field for the potential geographic reach of wind thresholds, the separate probability products for your location’s odds, and official watches and warnings for action.
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What does the hurricane forecast cone show?
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) track forecast cone is a graphic for the probable path of a tropical cyclone’s center. It is not a map of the entire circulation, the storm’s damaging-wind area, rainfall, storm surge, or every place that could feel effects. The NHC’s definition of the track forecast cone describes it as an uncertainty region around forecast center positions.
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At each forecast time, NHC places a circle around the predicted center. The circles are joined to form the cone. Their radii are calculated from historical official forecast errors so that two-thirds of the errors in a five-year sample fall within the circle at that lead time. The circle is therefore an uncertainty estimate for the center location, not a statement that two-thirds of the storm or its winds will remain inside the boundary.
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Forecast points are spaced along the projected track, so the cone is a time-dependent corridor rather than one giant circle around the current storm. Near-term circles are generally smaller because the center’s position is easier to estimate over a short interval. Farther-out circles are larger because small differences in steering currents and forecast assumptions accumulate. A broad five-day cone does not mean the cyclone has grown physically larger. A compact storm can have a broad cone, while a large storm can have a comparatively narrow one.
The cone also does not show every possible center location with equal likelihood. It summarizes historical error around the official forecast track. The center could be near the forecast line, near an edge, or outside the cone altogether. Treat the shape as an uncertainty aid, not as a probability heat map.
What the cone’s percentages do—and do not—mean
NHC’s interactive cone guidance says the full five-day center path has historically remained inside the cone about 60–70% of the time. That statement concerns the complete forecast path and is not identical to the two-thirds construction used for individual forecast-point circles. Both figures describe track-error performance, not the chance that your location will receive hurricane winds.
The NHC product guide summarizes the key limitation this way: “It is important to remember that tropical cyclones are not a point.” The center can stay inside the cone while tropical-storm-force winds, hurricane-force winds, rainfall, tornadoes, or surge spread well outside it. Read the cone as a track-uncertainty aid, never as the edge of the danger zone.
2026 operational cone radii
For the 2026 Atlantic and Eastern/Central Pacific operational cone, NHC uses official forecast-error statistics from 2021–2025. The values below are radii used to draw the center-track cone; they are not measurements of storm diameter or wind-field size.
| Forecast lead time | Atlantic radius | Eastern and Central Pacific radius | What the number represents |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | 39 nautical miles | 37 nautical miles | Uncertainty radius around the forecast center at that lead time |
| 120 hours | 200 nautical miles | 138 nautical miles | Uncertainty radius around the forecast center at five days |
These basin-specific values come from NHC’s 2026 cone methodology and radii table. They should not be interpreted as a forecast that winds stop at 39, 200, 37, or 138 nautical miles. The numbers only describe the historical uncertainty used to draw the center track at those lead times. Other forecast times have their own radii, and the values can be revised for future seasons as the error sample changes.
What does the wind-field map show?
The NHC Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Field graphic maps the potential extent of sustained wind thresholds around the storm. Orange shading represents areas potentially affected by sustained tropical-storm-force winds; red shading represents areas potentially affected by sustained hurricane-force winds. The display is based on wind radii in the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory, as described in the NHC graphical product descriptions.
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A wind radius is the maximum distance from the center at which a specified sustained-wind threshold may occur in a particular quadrant. Forecast advisories can therefore describe different north-east, south-east, south-west, and north-west extents rather than one circular storm size. The resulting shaded area may be lopsided. Stronger winds on one side can result from storm motion, vertical wind shear, land interaction, or other structural changes, so symmetry should never be assumed.
Because the radius is a maximum extent, the shaded shape does not say that every point inside it will receive that threshold. NHC explicitly cautions that not all locations in the orange or red areas will experience the indicated sustained winds; local terrain, storm asymmetry, forecast error, and changes in the wind structure all matter. A point close to the outer edge may experience less than the threshold, while a later advisory may expand, contract, or shift the area.
How timing differs from the cone
The cone represents uncertainty in future center positions at a sequence of forecast lead times. A wind-field graphic represents wind-radius information for the time or forecast position shown in the current advisory. Wind radii can be very different from one side of the storm to another, and they can change as intensity, shear, forward speed, and structure change. A single shaded wind field is therefore not a guarantee that the same area will be exposed throughout the forecast period.
When comparing products, first check the valid time and advisory number. A cone may display several future positions, whereas a wind-field panel may depict the radii associated with a particular position or advisory interval. Comparing a new cone with an older wind field can create an apparent mismatch that is simply a timing difference.
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The cone tracks a point: the forecast center. The wind field maps an area around that point. If the circulation extends beyond the cone’s edge, a location outside the cone can still experience tropical-storm-force or hurricane-force winds. This is the most important reason not to use the cone as an impact boundary.
The reverse is also possible. A location inside the cone may be on the weaker side of an asymmetric circulation, or the center may pass nearby without hurricane-force winds reaching that point. Center-track proximity alone does not determine the wind experienced at a particular address.
Forecast cone vs. wind-field map: the practical difference
| Reader’s question | Best graphic | What it can tell you | What it cannot establish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Where might the storm’s center go? | Forecast cone | Uncertainty around forecast center positions and the likely track corridor | The full area of wind, rain, surge, tornado, or other impacts |
| How far could threshold winds extend? | Surface wind field | Potential geographic extent of sustained tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds from forecast wind radii | That every shaded location will receive those winds |
| What is the chance my location gets a threshold wind during a period? | Surface wind-speed probability graphic | Cumulative, point-specific probabilities for specified sustained-wind thresholds and forecast intervals | A guarantee of conditions or a replacement for warnings |
| Is my area under official protective action? | NHC watches and warnings, plus the applicable official graphic | Whether authorities have issued a watch or warning for your area | A promise that conditions will remain below or above a threshold outside the alert area |
These products are complementary, not competing versions of the same map. The cone is center-focused and emphasizes uncertainty over time. The wind field is threshold-focused and emphasizes spatial reach around the storm. The probability product is location-focused and summarizes the chance of a threshold occurring during a defined period. Watches and warnings are decision products issued for protective action.
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Does the cone show where the wind will hit?
No. It shows where the center may travel. The cone is useful for judging track uncertainty, but it does not show the storm’s complete wind envelope. A location can be inside the cone and miss the strongest winds, or outside the cone and still receive dangerous winds from the outer circulation.
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Likewise, the wind-field map is not a probability map. Orange or red shading means the forecast wind radii reach that area as a potential maximum extent; it does not mean the location has a 100% chance of experiencing the threshold. For a point-specific chance over a defined period, use NHC’s surface wind-speed probability products, which combine the forecast track, intensity, wind structure, and historical forecast errors. NHC explains these calculations in its graphical product descriptions.
How to use both graphics without misreading them
- Start with the latest advisory time. Confirm that the cone and wind field come from the same current NHC advisory. Older graphics can show a previous track, intensity, or wind structure.
- Use the cone to frame center-track uncertainty. Ask whether your area lies near possible center positions during the forecast period. Do not treat the cone edge as a safe line.
- Overlay the wind field mentally or on the same map. Look at the orange and red extents around each forecast position. Consider that the wind field may reach beyond the cone and may be asymmetric.
- Check a location-specific probability product. If the question is “What are the odds my town receives a given sustained wind?”, use the cumulative wind-speed probability graphic rather than shading alone.
- Check watches and warnings. NHC graphics provide guidance; official watches and warnings are the actionable products for preparation and evacuation decisions. Follow instructions from local emergency management.
- Recheck after each advisory. Track forecasts, wind radii, and probabilities can change as new observations arrive. A changed cone does not mean the earlier graphic was a guarantee; it reflects updated uncertainty.
For a household decision, also note the forecast window. A point can be inside a wind radius at one advisory time but outside it later as the storm weakens, strengthens, accelerates, or changes direction. Plan for the full period covered by local alerts rather than focusing on one snapshot.
What changed for the 2026 season?
During the 2026 hurricane season, NHC is issuing an experimental cone graphic that uses ellipses rather than the established circular construction. The experimental design separates two components of track error:
- Along-track error: the center is ahead of or behind the forecast position.
- Cross-track error: the center is to the left or right of the forecast position.
The established operational cone uses circles based on the 67th percentile of absolute track errors over the previous five years. The experimental version uses ellipses to represent the different along-track and cross-track behavior. Both graphics concern uncertainty in the center track; neither is a wind-impact map.
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An ellipse’s longer axis should not be read as a larger storm or as a directional wind plume. It reflects the direction in which historical center-position errors have differed, not the radius of sustained winds. The same separation between center uncertainty and wind extent applies whether the display uses circles or ellipses.
If you are comparing screenshots, news reports, or forecast pages from 2026, identify which version you are viewing. NHC documents the experimental design on its Experimental Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone Graphic page. Do not describe the ellipse as a new wind-field boundary or assume its larger dimension indicates storm size.
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Common mistakes and the correct interpretation
| Mistake | Why it is wrong | Correct reading |
|---|---|---|
| “The cone is the area the hurricane will affect.” | The cone encloses center-track uncertainty, not all hazards. | Use it to understand where the center might go, then consult wind, surge, rainfall, tornado, and warning products. |
| “Outside the cone means safe.” | The storm’s circulation and hazards can extend far beyond the center track. | Check wind-field extents, probabilities, watches, warnings, and local guidance. |
| “Everything inside the orange or red shading gets those winds.” | Wind radii are maximum extents by quadrant. | Treat shading as potential reach, not a point-by-point guarantee. |
| “The shaded wind field is a percentage chance.” | It is based on forecast radii, not cumulative location probabilities. | Use the separate surface wind-speed probability graphics for probabilities. |
| “A wider cone means a larger storm.” | Cone width reflects track uncertainty. | Use wind radii and intensity information to evaluate storm size and wind reach. |
| “The 2026 ellipse and operational circle are the same graphic.” | They use different representations of track error. | Label which NHC version you are interpreting. |
| “The cone edge is a sharp cutoff.” | Historical error statistics cannot guarantee where the next center will remain. | Expect uncertainty on both sides of the boundary and monitor updates. |
| “A wind radius is the storm’s average size.” | It is a maximum threshold distance in a particular quadrant. | Read each shaded area as potential reach for that threshold and time. |
Can a place outside the cone still get hurricane winds?
Yes. The cone’s boundary concerns the center, while hurricane-force winds can extend outward from that center. A large or asymmetric circulation may place a location outside the cone but within the red wind-field area at a forecast time. Conversely, a location inside the cone may remain outside the hurricane-force wind radii.
Because the cone and wind field answer different questions, there is no contradiction when the red wind field crosses the cone edge. That pattern is expected whenever the storm’s wind envelope is wider than the track-uncertainty corridor. The same principle applies to tropical-storm-force winds, which commonly cover a larger area than the hurricane-force core.
Which graphic should you use for a specific decision?
If you are following the likely path
Use the operational cone to see the range of possible center positions. Pay attention to the forecast times and basin-specific uncertainty; the five-day portion is substantially broader than the 24-hour portion. If a forecast line shifts, compare the new and old cones as uncertainty updates rather than treating either line as a promise.
If you are estimating wind exposure
Use the surface wind field to see whether the potential tropical-storm-force or hurricane-force wind radii reach your region. Remember that the graphic shows maximum extents, not certainty at every shaded point. Look at the quadrant nearest your location and the valid advisory time, because the shape may be asymmetric and may evolve.
If you need a probability for one location
Use the cumulative surface wind-speed probability graphic for the threshold and period you care about. This is the appropriate product for a question such as whether a specified location has a measurable chance of experiencing a given sustained wind speed during the forecast interval. Probability values incorporate uncertainty in track, intensity, and wind structure; shading alone does not.
If you need to decide whether to act
Use official watches and warnings and follow local emergency-management instructions. The cone and wind field are explanatory forecast graphics; they should not replace an evacuation order, shelter guidance, or other official direction. A location outside a current alert can still be affected later if the forecast changes, so continue monitoring official updates.
Why the cone cannot be treated as a precise boundary
Forecast error is not uniform in every direction or at every lead time. The operational cone summarizes historical error with circles, which makes the graphic easy to read but does not capture every directional difference. The experimental 2026 ellipses address along-track and cross-track differences explicitly, yet they still describe center-position uncertainty rather than exact storm impacts.
The 60–70% historical full-path figure also means that some center tracks fall outside the cone. A boundary drawn from historical error statistics cannot guarantee that the next storm will remain within it. This is why official guidance emphasizes repeated updates and why the cone should be read together with other hazard-specific products.
Even a highly accurate center forecast cannot specify local wind conditions by itself. Wind speeds vary with quadrant, terrain, exposure, and the storm’s evolving structure. That is why NHC publishes separate wind radii and point-specific probabilities instead of asking users to infer wind risk from the center line.
Frequently asked questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the hurricane cone show?
It shows historical uncertainty around forecast positions of the tropical cyclone’s center. It does not show the full circulation or every area that could experience wind, rain, surge, or tornadoes.
Does the cone show where the wind will hit?
No. Use the surface wind-field graphic for potential wind-threshold extent and the surface wind-speed probability graphic for a location-specific chance during a stated period.
Can a place outside the cone still get hurricane winds?
Yes. Hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds can extend beyond the center-track uncertainty corridor. Check wind radii, probabilities, watches, and warnings rather than assuming the cone edge is a safety line.
Does orange or red shading guarantee those winds?
No. The shading is based on maximum wind radii by quadrant. NHC cautions that not every shaded location will experience the indicated sustained threshold.
Why is the five-day cone much wider than the 24-hour cone?
Center-position uncertainty accumulates with forecast lead time. For 2026, the operational radius is 39 nautical miles in the Atlantic at 24 hours and 200 nautical miles at 120 hours; those are uncertainty radii, not storm-size measurements.
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It uses ellipses that distinguish along-track error from cross-track error. The established operational cone uses circles based on the 67th percentile of absolute track errors from the previous five years.
Which map should I use to decide whether to prepare?
Use the latest NHC advisory, location-specific wind probabilities, and official watches or warnings, then follow local emergency-management instructions. The cone and wind field explain forecast uncertainty and potential reach but are not substitutes for protective-action guidance.
The Bottom Line
Bottom line: The forecast cone answers “Where might the center go?” The wind-field map answers “How far could specified sustained winds extend?” The cone is not a wind boundary, and wind-field shading is not a probability or guarantee. For your location, combine the latest advisory with point-specific wind probabilities and official watches or warnings.
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