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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsTrack diesel prices and bond yields as two separate planning inputs. Use the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly on-highway diesel series to measure the fuel-cost environment, then compare it with your own invoices or fuel-card transactions. Use the U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve to frame borrowing-cost scenarios over the maturity of a planned loan. Do not combine the series into a single fuel-price forecast: the published sources define them differently and do not establish a predictive relationship.
A workable system records the benchmark, your realized purchase price, gallons, route or location, and the relevant financing yield on a repeatable schedule. Fuel scenarios are calculated from gallons and an assumed price per gallon; financing scenarios use the borrowing terms and a maturity-matched Treasury reference.
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What to track—and what each number means
A useful dashboard begins by separating market references from your company’s actual costs. The following streams answer different questions and should not be plotted as though they were synchronized measurements.
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| Stream | Cadence and unit | Geographic or maturity detail | Best use | Important limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EIA weekly on-highway diesel price | Weekly; U.S. dollars per gallon, including taxes | U.S., regional and state series | Track broad retail diesel movement and set fuel-price scenarios | Weighted survey average, not a quote for your station, route or negotiated contract |
| Your transaction records | Every purchase; dollars per gallon, gallons and total dollars | Vehicle, route, site, vendor and date | Measure the price your operation actually paid | Records are specific to your business and cannot represent the wider market by themselves |
| U.S. Treasury par yield curve | Daily; annualized yield by maturity | Multiple maturities for a financing horizon | Provide a broad market reference for borrowing-cost sensitivity analysis | Not an individualized loan offer or a forecast of diesel prices |
| FRED DGS10 series | Daily, not seasonally adjusted; percent | 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield | Convenient chart or data feed when a 10-year reference fits the decision | Federal Reserve data can be revised, and one maturity may not match your loan term |
The EIA diesel benchmark
EIA’s retail on-highway diesel estimate is the average price paid at sampled retail outlets, with taxes included. It is a survey-derived estimate weighted using sampling information and annual sales-volume weights. That makes it useful for identifying direction and regional differences, but it does not tell you the price at a particular truck stop or the rate in a fleet fuel agreement.
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EIA publishes a national figure and lower-level geography. A single-region operator should normally follow the regional or state series that matches its routes. A fleet that crosses several regions should monitor each operating region rather than relying only on the national average.
Your realized fuel cost
Invoices, receipts and fuel-card exports are the control total for budgeting. Record the purchase date, location, vehicle or route, gallons, price per gallon and total charge. Keep taxes, fees, discounts and rebates identifiable so that a sudden difference from the EIA benchmark can be investigated instead of hidden in an average.
Treasury yields
Treasury’s par yield curve relates a par yield to a maturity. Treasury describes the curve as being based on closing market bid prices for recently auctioned Treasury securities; indicative inputs are obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at approximately 3:30 p.m. each business day. Select the maturity closest to the period over which you expect to borrow or refinance.
A Treasury yield is a market reference, not the rate your company will receive. Your lender’s pricing, credit assessment, collateral, fees, amortization and other terms can make the all-in borrowing cost different from the Treasury observation.
Build a tracker that can be audited
Choose the operating scope first
Write down the geography and business activity the tracker is intended to represent. For a local fleet, that may be one state or EIA region. For a multi-region carrier, create a line for each region and assign purchases to the region in which they occurred. A national average can remain a reference line, but it should not replace the series that best matches where fuel is consumed.
For financing, record the decision horizon separately: for example, a short equipment note, a multi-year vehicle loan or a planned refinancing. The maturity used for the yield comparison should be documented beside the financing scenario.
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Use one row per observation
A spreadsheet or database is sufficient if each row can be traced to a source or transaction. Include these fields:
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- Observation date and the date the value was released
- Source name and series identifier
- Geographic area for diesel or maturity for a yield
- Benchmark diesel price in dollars per gallon, or yield in percent per annum
- Vehicle, route, station or vendor for an actual purchase
- Gallons purchased, price paid per gallon and total fuel cost
- Loan, refinancing or budget scenario associated with the yield observation
- A short note for holidays, unusual routes, supply interruptions, methodology changes or data revisions
Keep diesel dollars per gallon and yield percent per annum in separate columns and separate charts. This prevents a percentage from being mistaken for a fuel-price unit.
Set the update calendar
EIA says its weekly diesel estimates are released at about 5 p.m. each Monday, or Tuesday when Monday is a federal holiday, and represent prices for Monday. Schedule the weekly import after that release window. Treasury observations are daily, so collect them on business days relevant to your financing decision. A monthly management review can summarize gallons, weighted-average purchase price and the change from the selected EIA benchmark.
How do I track diesel prices for my business?
- Open the current EIA weekly on-highway diesel table. Confirm the release date and select the national, regional or state series that matches your operation.
- Save the observation with its unit and geography. Store the value in dollars per gallon, note that taxes are included, and retain the release date rather than copying only the number.
- Enter your purchases for the same period. For each transaction, capture gallons, paid price, total cost, date, location and vehicle or route.
- Calculate your realized average. Divide total dollars by total gallons for the period. Do not average station prices without weighting by gallons.
- Compare like with like. Compare a regional or state benchmark with purchases made in that geography. Explain differences caused by negotiated discounts, card fees, taxes, remote locations or route mix.
- Annotate exceptional weeks. Record storms, planned maintenance, route changes, a large one-time fill or a data-method change so a future budget review does not interpret it as a normal trend.
The EIA figure is an external reference. Your transaction ledger remains the source for what the fleet actually spent.
How can I forecast fuel costs for my fleet?
Start with gallons, not a market chart
The core calculation is:
Fuel expense = gallons used × expected purchase price per gallon.
Estimate gallons from route plans, historical consumption or dispatch projections, then apply a price assumption. If gallons are uncertain, show that uncertainty separately instead of burying it in the price.
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Use low, base and high price cases
Set a low, base and high diesel-price assumption using the latest matching EIA benchmark, recent realized prices and the operational conditions you can defend. Label each assumption with its geography and date. For example, a fleet may hold expected gallons constant and vary only the price in three cases; another fleet may combine a higher price with additional emergency miles in its high case. The assumptions should be visible to the person approving the budget.
When new weekly EIA data arrive, update the base case and decide whether the low and high boundaries still cover the observed spread. Do not silently replace a prior budget assumption: retain the old value so the variance can be explained.
Use weighted averages for monthly reporting
For a monthly result, add all fuel dollars and divide by all gallons. A route that purchased twice as many gallons must have twice the influence on the average. Compare that weighted result with the matching EIA geography, then investigate the difference at the vehicle, route or location level.
Keep financing sensitivity in its own section
If a fuel purchase is funded with a loan or line of credit, show the financing assumption separately from the diesel-price case. A higher borrowing rate can increase total operating cost, but it does not change the arithmetic of gallons multiplied by the price per gallon. Present fuel expense and financing expense as separate lines before calculating a combined cash requirement.
How do bond yields affect business borrowing costs?
Match the maturity to the decision
Use the Treasury maturity that most closely resembles the period being planned. A short-term working-capital need and a long equipment loan are different exposures; using a 10-year yield for every decision can obscure that difference. Record the selected maturity and the reason for choosing it.
Read the yield as a reference point
Track the daily Treasury par yield and compare its movement with the rate assumption in your financing model. The comparison can show whether the market reference moved before a refinancing date or whether a proposed borrowing scenario is becoming more or less sensitive to rates. It cannot determine the final business loan rate.
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For a practical daily series, FRED’s DGS10 is the daily, not seasonally adjusted, 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield, expressed as a percent and sourced from the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release. FRED warns that observations are subject to revision. As a dated illustration, the page displayed 5.22% for October 8, 2026, with the page updated October 9, 2026. Treat that figure as a historical observation, not a current quote after the page has changed.
Translate a yield move into a financing scenario
Keep the loan’s principal, amortization, term and lender spread in the financing worksheet. Change the Treasury reference within a low, base or high case, then recalculate the assumed borrowing rate and payment under the terms your lender has specified. If the lender quotes a fixed rate, the relevant risk may be the rate available when the loan is locked rather than every daily fluctuation. If the rate is floating, document the reset rule and index actually used by the contract.
Can I use Treasury yields to predict diesel prices?
No reliable relationship is established by the EIA and Treasury definitions described here. EIA’s series is a weekly, survey-based retail diesel estimate; Treasury’s curve is a daily market quotation benchmark by maturity. Different units, sampling methods, release times and economic exposures mean that a chart showing both lines moving together does not demonstrate that one predicts the other.
Use the diesel series to set fuel-price scenarios and the yield series to set financing scenarios. If your company develops a statistical model that links them, test it on your own data, document the variables and out-of-sample performance, and label the output as a company-specific model. Do not present co-movement alone as a causal forecast.
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EIA data feeds
EIA’s Petroleum & Other Liquids portal organizes weekly updates, petroleum supply reports and price tools. The data.gov catalog description for EIA petroleum price data says weekly, monthly and annual data are available and that API users need a key. That catalog metadata was last updated August 3, 2015, so it is useful for finding the API route but not for assuming that an old endpoint, field name or release schedule remains current. Check EIA’s current API documentation before writing an integration.
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Treasury and FRED feeds
Use Treasury’s current Interest Rate Statistics information for the par curve and its daily-rate definitions. FRED is convenient for charting DGS10, but a dashboard should display the observation date and allow for revisions. Do not overwrite a historical value without recording when your system retrieved the revision.
Separate charts and clocks
Plot weekly diesel observations in one chart and daily yields in another. If a report places them on the same page, show their different frequencies and label the axes clearly. Do not compare a single daily yield with a weekly diesel average as if both represented the same instant.
Data-quality issues that can change your interpretation
Survey weighting and imputation
EIA weights surveyed outlet prices using sampling and annual sales-volume information. Some nonresponses are imputed. The methods documentation describes sampling and nonsampling errors, and EIA may withhold an average when the share of weighted volume based on imputed prices reaches its stated threshold. A missing or revised weekly value is therefore a data-quality event to document, not a zero price or a reason to substitute an unverified station quote.
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The June 2022 methodology break
EIA notes that the June 13, 2022 diesel estimate is not directly comparable with June 6, 2022 because of a methodology change. Do not describe a jump across that boundary as purely market-driven. Mark the break in long-term charts or adjust the comparison using a method you can explain.
Revisions and release timing
A value should be tagged with both the observation date and the date you retrieved or published it. This is particularly important for FRED, which warns that data can be revised, and for any API process that refreshes historical records. A dashboard that silently changes the past can make a budget variance impossible to reproduce.
A monthly operating workflow
- After the weekly EIA release, add the matching regional or state diesel value and record the release date.
- Import purchase transactions, check gallons and total dollars, and investigate missing locations or duplicate invoices.
- Calculate the weighted-average paid price for the month and compare it with the benchmark that matches where fuel was bought.
- Update the gallons forecast using current dispatch, mileage or route assumptions.
- Refresh the financing view with the Treasury maturity relevant to an upcoming borrowing or refinancing decision; use DGS10 only when a 10-year reference is appropriate.
- Run low, base and high cases for fuel and separate sensitivity cases for borrowing costs.
- Write a short variance note covering route mix, negotiated pricing, unusual purchases, methodology breaks, revisions and changes in the financing plan.
This workflow gives operations a current fuel view while giving finance a documented rate reference without pretending that either series is more precise than it is.
Common mistakes and how to correct them
- Using the national diesel average for every route: switch to the EIA region or state where the gallons were purchased, and retain the national line only as context.
- Treating the EIA number as a station quote: compare it with actual invoices and investigate the spread rather than budgeting as though every purchase will equal the survey average.
- Averaging daily yields into a fuel-price signal: keep yield observations in the financing worksheet and use price-per-gallon data for fuel scenarios.
- Mixing release dates: label Monday diesel observations and the Monday or Tuesday release clearly; do not align them with a random daily yield close.
- Ignoring taxes and fees: confirm that the EIA benchmark includes taxes, then decide how card fees, rebates and other transaction adjustments are represented in your own ledger.
- Hard-coding old API documentation: verify current EIA API requirements and release behavior before deploying an automated feed.
- Reading a methodology break as a market shock: flag the June 13, 2022 change and qualify any trend that crosses it.
- Calling a Treasury yield a loan offer: add the lender-specific spread and contractual terms before estimating payments or cash flow.
What a decision-ready report should show
A concise management report can contain four blocks:
- Fuel market: the latest EIA benchmark for each operating geography, with release date and unit.
- Fleet reality: gallons, total dollars, weighted-average paid price and the largest route or location variances.
- Financing context: the Treasury maturity selected for each borrowing plan, the observation date and the assumed business borrowing rate.
- Scenarios: low, base and high fuel expenses plus separate financing sensitivities, with assumptions stated beside every result.
That layout lets an owner ask whether a variance came from market diesel movement, where the fleet purchased, how many gallons it used or how financing terms changed. It also leaves an audit trail for the next weekly and monthly update.
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