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Freedom251 › Blog › markdown strategy

How to Set Seasonal Discounts Without Sacrificing Profit Margins

By Freedom251 Team · · 5 min read

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There is no universally safe seasonal discount percentage. Set an offer from your own costs, gross margin, demand response and inventory goal: calculate the price floor, choose the products and dates where a discount can help, then review results before changing the offer.

Start with a measurable promotion goal

“More sales” is not specific enough to guide a markdown. Choose one primary goal and identify the figures that will show whether the offer achieved it.

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  • Generate incremental demand: Use an offer during a historically slow period and track units and profit against a reasonable baseline.
  • Clear seasonal stock: Track sell-through and remaining inventory before the season ends.
  • Increase basket size: Measure average order value and contribution after any bundle or quantity-off costs.
  • Bring back inactive customers: Track purchases from the intended customer segment, not just total sales.
  • Improve cash flow: Consider how quickly stock converts to cash alongside margin and leftover inventory.

Boston Consulting Group recommends evaluating markdown scenarios against objectives such as gross margin, sales volume and working capital, rather than treating one outcome as the only measure of success (BCG, 2020).

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Calculate the price floor and volume hurdle

Before announcing a discount, work out the current gross margin, markup and break-even point. Gross margin is gross profit as a share of selling price; markup is profit as a share of cost. They are not interchangeable. Business Victoria advises estimating the discounted price needed to remain profitable before running an offer (Business Victoria, “Develop discount strategies”).

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Then account for costs that change with each sale, such as payment processing, fulfillment, packaging, returns and promotion expenses. Gross margin alone may overstate what a discounted order contributes if those costs are material.

Estimate the sales lift needed to preserve gross-profit dollars

For a simple estimate, let m be the current gross margin as a decimal and d the discount rate as a share of the original selling price. Assuming unit cost is unchanged and ignoring other effects, the required unit increase to preserve the same gross-profit dollars is d ÷ (m − d).

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For example, with a 40% gross margin and a 5% discount, the volume hurdle is 0.05 ÷ (0.40 − 0.05) = 14.3%. Business Victoria gives this same illustrative example; it is a calculation under those assumptions, not a forecast that any particular sale will produce that lift. If costs, product mix, channel fees, returns or customer behavior change, the result changes too.

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A discount reduces gross profit per unit unless another part of the economics changes. If the price reduction leaves little room above cost, the volume increase required to compensate can be very large. Do not use the example as a blanket discount rule for other margins or products.

Choose products and timing from sales and stock evidence

Use sales history and current performance to find the products or periods where an offer addresses a real need. Review regular sales dips, sales against plan, stock on hand, expected replenishment and time remaining in the season. A discount may make sense for slow-moving or soon-to-be out-of-season stock; it may be unnecessary for an item selling well at full price.

For larger assortments, consider price response at the SKU level rather than assuming an entire category reacts the same way. BCG describes modeling factors including seasonality, promotional intensity, traffic and stock-outs when forecasting response and comparing markdown scenarios (BCG, 2020). That is a planning approach, not a guarantee about how any SKU will perform.

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Scope the offer to the items, channels, locations or customer segments that fit the objective. McKinsey identifies broad, one-size-fits-all markdowns as a common mistake and recommends considering which items, locations, timing and price depth merit a markdown (McKinsey, 2023). A calendar event or competitor’s sale date is not, by itself, evidence that the same offer fits your inventory.

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Choose a discount format and depth

Pick the offer that fits the product’s demand response, stock position and goal. A smaller price cut may be enough for an item with responsive demand; a cut on a product whose buyers are less price-sensitive can sacrifice margin without generating much extra volume. These are modeling considerations, not certain outcomes for an individual item.

Offer format Can suit Cost or trade-off to check
Percentage or fixed amount off A direct price incentive on selected products or dates Lower revenue per unit; check the resulting margin and required volume lift.
Bundle Increasing basket size or pairing seasonal stock with another item Include the cost and margin of every item in the bundle.
Quantity offer Encouraging a larger purchase when stock and demand support it Check the effective per-unit price and whether the added units would otherwise sell at full price.
Value-add, such as free shipping or gift wrapping Giving customers an incentive without reducing the displayed item price Shipping, wrapping and fulfillment still have costs.

Business Victoria lists bundles, quantity offers, free shipping, gift wrapping and other value-adds as alternatives to a direct price cut (Business Victoria). None is cost-free by default: assess its effect on contribution, not just the headline price.

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Stage the offer and set a review rule

Write down the promotion’s dates, eligible products or segments, maximum discount and review trigger before launch. Depending on the inventory and time left in the season, you might begin with a controlled offer and deepen it only if actual sell-through or another chosen measure falls short.

Review results at intervals your product, sales cycle and operations can support. McKinsey discusses phased markdowns and the risk of leaving underperforming offers unreviewed; a peer-reviewed model by Bitran and Mondschein examines periodic reviews for seasonal pricing over time. Neither establishes one cadence that suits every retailer (McKinsey, 2023; Bitran and Mondschein, 1997).

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Measure results against the goal

Compare the outcome with the objective you chose, and include both sales and economics. Useful measures include gross profit or contribution, units sold, sell-through, leftover stock and working capital. Also check whether the promotion discounted purchases that would likely have happened at full price, shifted sales from another product, or added meaningful execution and communication costs. These are practical evaluation considerations; their effect will depend on your business and offer.

Published figures from consulting work are not promises for an individual retailer. BCG reported a 10%–20% gross-margin increase from its experience with more than 20 projects in the preceding 18 months involving analytics-supported in-season and end-of-season sales programs; this is project experience, not a controlled universal effect size (BCG, 2020). McKinsey reported 400–800 basis points of margin-rate improvement attributed to markdown optimization in its 2023 article; that range should likewise be read as the article’s reported finding, not as a result every retailer can expect (McKinsey, 2023).

Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.

markdown strategyprofit marginsretail pricingseasonal discountssmall business

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