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Evaluate Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) in three separate stages: determine whether revenue growth is repeatable, test profitability using GAAP results before adjusted figures, and then ask whether the share price already assumes an exceptionally strong future. The latest figures reviewed here are Palantir’s quarter ended June 30, 2026 (Q2 2026), its first-half 2026 filing, FY2025 results, and a market snapshot at the October 12, 2026 close. They provide a framework for research, not a personalized buy-or-sell recommendation.
A fast-growing business and an attractive stock are different judgments. Palantir’s valuation requires assumptions about future growth, margins, customer retention, contract conversion, dilution and the period over which those results arrive. Keep historical GAAP results, management-defined adjusted measures and market-derived multiples in separate columns of your analysis.
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Start with a repeatable evaluation framework
Use the same sequence every time Palantir reports:
- Measure growth and mix. Compare year-over-year revenue across annual, quarterly and year-to-date periods. Then split the change by U.S. commercial, government and international activity when the filing provides those details.
- Check operating quality. Put GAAP gross and operating margins first. Reconcile adjusted margins to show exactly what the company removes, especially stock-based compensation (SBC) and related payroll taxes.
- Examine per-share economics. SBC is an expense even when it is described as noncash for an adjusted metric. Track dilution and the number of shares used in per-share calculations.
- Assess contract visibility. Separate remaining performance obligations (RPO), contract liabilities and management guidance. They describe different things and carry different risks.
- Price the assumptions. Record the share price, market capitalization and valuation multiples on a dated basis. A high multiple can be justified only if future growth, margins and cash generation support it.
- Stress-test risks. Focus on renewal and expansion, customer concentration, sales-cycle length, implementation, competition, contract cancellation and AI-related liability or reputation issues.
Refresh every market multiple after a material price move or new earnings release. Forward ratios change when either the share price or analysts’ estimates change.
Revenue growth: speed, durability and mix
What the reported periods show
| Period | Revenue | Year-over-year change | How to use it |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $4.5 billion | 56% from FY2024 | Full-year baseline |
| Q2 2026, quarter ended June 30 | $1.9 billion | 93% | Latest quarterly comparison; do not treat one quarter as a long-run forecast |
| First half of 2026 | $3.6 billion | 89% | Year-to-date view that reduces reliance on one quarter |
The reported comparisons accelerated from FY2025 to the 2026 periods. That is evidence of recent momentum, not proof that the same rate will persist. A single quarter can contain unusually large contracts, timing effects or an easy comparison with the prior year. Use the first-half figure and subsequent quarters to test whether the acceleration broadens and endures.
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Look beneath the aggregate
Aggregate revenue can conceal very different trajectories. Break out, when disclosed, U.S. commercial, government and international revenue, and distinguish commercial from government contract timing. Palantir’s Q4 2025 release said U.S. commercial revenue grew 137% year over year in that quarter and gave FY2026 revenue-growth guidance of 61% year over year on February 2, 2026. Alex C. Karp, co-founder and chief executive officer, said in that release: “We are also announcing a 2026 revenue growth guide of 61% year-over-year.” This was management’s guidance on that date, not an achieved result or a current forecast. Compare it with later guidance and reported revenue before relying on it.
Customer count is a supporting indicator, not a quality score
Palantir reported 1,049 customers at June 30, 2026, compared with 849 one year earlier. More customers can widen the base, but the count does not reveal contract size, retention, profitability, implementation status or concentration. Pair it with net expansion, renewal rates, large-customer exposure and the share of revenue from commercial, government, U.S. and international accounts.
Questions that make growth investable
- Are new deployments converting into recurring production usage, or are they pilots and short projects?
- Is growth spread across many customers and regions, or driven by a small number of unusually large awards?
- Do renewals and expansions keep pace with new bookings?
- Are implementation capacity and customer support scaling without eroding GAAP margins?
- Does reported revenue arrive as contracts are performed, rather than merely being announced?
These questions turn a headline growth rate into a test of durability. They also help distinguish a temporary acceleration from a business that can compound over several years.
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Q2 2026 margin snapshot
| Q2 2026 measure | Reported result | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| GAAP gross margin | 85% | Includes SBC and other costs recognized under GAAP |
| Gross margin excluding SBC | 86% | Management-defined adjusted measure; removes SBC from the calculation |
| GAAP operating income | $912 million | Approximately 48% of $1.9 billion revenue, calculated from rounded reported figures |
| Adjusted operating margin | 62% | Excludes SBC and related employer payroll taxes |
The gap between GAAP operating profitability and the adjusted operating margin is economically important. Adjusted figures can help compare operating trends after specified exclusions, but they do not replace the cost of labor paid through equity. Present both columns whenever you assess margin expansion.
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FY2025 provides a longer comparison
| FY2025 measure | Reported result |
|---|---|
| GAAP operating income | $1.4 billion |
| Adjusted operating income | $2.3 billion |
| GAAP gross margin | 82% |
| Gross margin excluding SBC | 84% |
The FY2025 filing states that non-GAAP measures should be considered alongside, not instead of or in isolation from, GAAP measures. A widening reconciliation deserves scrutiny: determine whether the excluded cost is recurring, whether it results in dilution, and whether the business could maintain reported profitability without issuing as much equity.
Stock-based compensation and per-share economics
For the six months ended June 30, 2026, Palantir recorded $466.8 million of SBC expense, compared with $315.3 million in the same period of 2025. SBC does not require a cash payment in the period in which the expense is recorded, but it compensates employees with equity or equity-linked awards. Existing shareholders can bear the cost through dilution, and the expense belongs in an assessment of the resources required to produce revenue.
Analyze SBC in three places:
- Income statement: compare GAAP operating expense with the adjusted version that removes SBC.
- Share count: review basic and diluted weighted-average shares, shares outstanding and the effect of options or restricted awards.
- Cash-flow interpretation: do not treat cash flow that adds back SBC as entirely distributable without considering the equity issued to generate it.
A company can report impressive adjusted margins while per-share value grows more slowly if the share count rises rapidly. Track revenue and operating income per diluted share, not only total-dollar growth.
Valuation: document what the price assumes
Dated market snapshot
| Metric | Value at October 12, 2026 close | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $209.00 | Point-in-time closing price |
| Market capitalization | Approximately $502 billion | Market-data figure attributed to S&P Global Market Intelligence and reported by StockAnalysis |
| Trailing P/E | 178.75 | Based on trailing earnings; changes with price and reported earnings |
| Forward P/E | 109.98 | Depends on forecast earnings estimates, not guaranteed results |
| Price-to-sales | 81.59 | Uses market value relative to sales; does not by itself show profitability or cash conversion |
These are high-multiple, dated observations rather than an intrinsic-value estimate. Do not turn them into a target price without stating a method and assumptions. A valuation model should specify the revenue path, operating margin, SBC and dilution, taxes, reinvestment, cash generation, terminal growth and discount rate.
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Use a scenario framework instead of a single multiple
Build at least three cases:
- Upside case: growth remains high for several years, commercial expansion broadens, renewals are strong and GAAP margins approach adjusted margins without excessive dilution.
- Base case: growth decelerates toward a sustainable rate, implementation and sales cycles normalize, and the GAAP-to-adjusted gap remains material.
- Downside case: large contracts slip or terminate, customer concentration hurts results, competition raises acquisition costs and the share count expands faster than earnings.
For each case, calculate an implied future market capitalization from revenue and an assumed price-to-sales ratio, or from earnings and an assumed P/E. Then discount that value to today and compare it with the dated market capitalization. The exercise is not precise; its purpose is to reveal how much growth and margin expansion the current price requires.
Peer comparisons need matching definitions
If you compare Palantir with another software or data company, align fiscal periods, GAAP versus adjusted accounting, revenue recognition, growth rates, SBC treatment, customer mix and government exposure. A lower P/S multiple is not automatically cheaper if growth or margins are also lower. No independently verified peer valuation set or analyst-consensus dataset is established here, so do not present one as settled evidence.
Contract visibility: RPO is not guaranteed revenue
Remaining performance obligations
| RPO detail at June 30, 2026 | Amount or share | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Total remaining performance obligations | $4.9 billion | Noncancelable contracted revenue not yet recognized, as described in the filing |
| Expected recognition in the next 12 months | Approximately 43% | Management’s expected timing, subject to contract and execution conditions |
| Expected recognition in the following 13–36 months | Approximately 36% | Longer-dated expected recognition |
RPO improves visibility but is not a promise that every dollar will be realized on schedule. The filing notes that many arrangements may be terminable for convenience, and government options can depend on future appropriations and agency decisions. Check whether RPO converts into revenue at the expected rate and whether cancellations or scope changes rise.
Contract liabilities are a different measure
Contract liabilities were $1.1 billion at June 30, 2026, compared with $0.8 billion at December 31, 2025. They represent deferred revenue and customer deposits. They should not be described as revenue already earned, nor treated as interchangeable with RPO. Analyze the balance together with billings, recognized revenue and cash collections.
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Risks to put at the center of the thesis
Growth and sales execution
Palantir’s 10-K identifies the inability to sustain growth and long, unpredictable and costly sales cycles as risks. Enterprise and government deployments can require extensive proof-of-concept work, procurement steps and implementation. A strong pipeline can therefore produce uneven quarterly revenue. Monitor time from initial engagement to production, implementation capacity and the proportion of pilots that become paying deployments.
Customer concentration and contract realization
Concentration means one delayed renewal, reduced scope or lost account can affect growth disproportionately. The company also warns that it may fail to realize the full value of announced deals. Track the largest customers, renewal and expansion performance, average contract duration and the difference between headline deal value and recognized revenue.
Government and international exposure
Government revenue depends on budgets, appropriations, procurement rules and political priorities. International activity adds currency, regulation and geopolitical considerations. Compare the mix over time rather than assuming that a government award or international contract creates an identical economic profile to U.S. commercial expansion.
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Competition can pressure pricing, lengthen sales cycles or force higher spending on product development and support. Lengthy implementations can delay revenue and make customer satisfaction critical. Watch churn, expansion, service reliability, implementation duration and whether sales and marketing expense grows faster than durable revenue.
AI-related liability and reputation
The company warns that AI systems can create legal, regulatory, reputational and other liabilities. Errors, biased outputs, misuse, security incidents or changing rules could increase costs or reduce customer adoption. Evaluate contractual allocation of liability, security controls, customer safeguards and the concentration of revenue in sensitive use cases.
Quarterly volatility and operating expenses
Quarterly results can fluctuate because of contract timing, customer decisions and variable spending. Rising operating expenses may be rational investment during expansion, but the return should appear in durable bookings, deployments and revenue per employee rather than only in adjusted metrics.
Read the company’s risk language literally
Palantir’s FY2025 Form 10-K states: “Investing in our Class A common stock involves a high degree of risk.” That is the issuer’s required disclosure, not an independent rating. Treat it as a checklist for questions to verify in subsequent filings.
A practical quarterly checklist
- Update the scorecard. Record revenue, year-over-year growth, customer count, commercial and government mix, U.S. and international mix, GAAP gross margin and GAAP operating margin.
- Reconcile adjustments. Capture adjusted margins, SBC, employer payroll-tax exclusions and the dollar gap between GAAP and adjusted operating income.
- Check per-share progress. Compare diluted shares and revenue, operating income and cash flow per diluted share.
- Test contract conversion. Reconcile opening RPO with additions, recognition, cancellations and closing RPO. Keep contract liabilities in a separate line.
- Review customer durability. Look for renewal, expansion, churn, concentration and implementation disclosures.
- Refresh valuation. Date the share price, market capitalization, trailing P/E, forward P/E and P/S. Replace stale estimates after each earnings release.
- Run downside cases. Model slower growth, lower margins, delayed contracts and higher dilution. Identify which assumption causes the valuation to fail first.
- Read the new risk factors. Note changes involving government budgets, competition, AI liability, security, regulation and customer satisfaction.
How to reach a disciplined conclusion
Conclude in separate sentences. First, state what the operating evidence says: recent revenue growth, customer expansion, GAAP profitability and contract visibility. Second, state what remains uncertain: durability of the growth rate, mix, renewals, conversion timing, SBC dilution and government or customer concentration. Third, state what the valuation requires: the future growth and margin path that would make the dated multiples reasonable.
This structure prevents a common error—calling a strong company a cheap stock. Palantir can continue to execute operationally while the shares underperform if expectations embedded in the price are higher than the results delivered. Conversely, a future price decline can reduce the multiple without changing the underlying business. Re-run the framework after each filing and market reset rather than relying on a single headline number.
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