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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteEvaluate a data center investment by converting every headline megawatt and contracted dollar into operating, billable cash flow. Reconcile the site’s utility supply with usable customer IT load, separate operating capacity from capacity still being built, verify how and when power will be delivered, and read each customer agreement for payment obligations, delivery conditions, cancellation rights and remedies. A long lease can reduce demand risk while leaving construction, energization, financing and counterparty risks unresolved.
Start with the denominator: what does “occupancy” mean?
Data center occupancy is not a single standardized number. One operator may report occupied building area; another may report leased critical IT load; a third may call reserved or contracted future capacity “occupied.” Those measures produce very different pictures of cash flow. Your first task is to identify the reporting date, the unit, and the point in the development process represented by the figure.
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Keep these capacity measures separate
| Measure | What it describes | Why it matters to an investor |
|---|---|---|
| Gross utility or site capacity | Power available to the property under utility, generation or interconnection arrangements, often before facility overhead and redundancy. | Shows the upper limit of the site, not the load a tenant can operate or be billed for. |
| Installed and operating IT load | Commissioned electrical and cooling systems capable of serving live customer equipment. | Closest to present operating revenue, but still needs a lease and an invoicing start date. |
| Leasable customer IT capacity | Critical IT megawatts the operator can contract after reserving capacity for electrical losses, cooling, redundancy and operating constraints. | Useful for comparing sales inventory, but it may include vacant or unbuilt space. |
| Contracted or reserved load | Megawatts promised to a customer under a signed agreement, sometimes in phases that have not been delivered. | Signals demand only when the contract is enforceable and the facility can meet its delivery conditions. |
| Capacity under construction or in development | Future load that depends on permits, equipment, financing, interconnection and commissioning. | Requires additional capital and carries schedule and cost risk before rent can start. |
| Revenue-generating capacity | Load that is both delivered and producing recognized rent or usage revenue under the applicable accounting policy. | Best anchor for current cash flow; it can be much lower than contracted capacity. |
Ask management for a site-by-site bridge from gross utility megawatts to customer-usable IT megawatts. The bridge should show electrical losses, cooling and other overhead, redundancy design, phased delivery, operating status, contracted status and the date each tranche is expected to begin billing. Without that bridge, a portfolio’s “occupancy” percentage can combine live tenants with a reservation for a building that is not yet energized.
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Use a phase-by-phase occupancy schedule
For every campus, create rows for land and shell, powered shell, fit-out, commissioning and customer acceptance. In each row record total critical IT load, load under construction, load contracted, load delivered, and load producing revenue. Add the expected rent-commencement date and the remaining capital required. This schedule prevents a signed contract for a 2028 delivery from being treated as 2026 operating occupancy.
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Verify the power path, not just the power claim
Power is a delivery chain. A brochure may quote the maximum utility allocation while the tenant can receive only a fraction after interconnection limits, substation work, redundancy requirements and facility overhead. Underwrite each link in the chain and identify who pays for it.
Evidence to obtain
- Utility service agreement: contracted capacity, tariff or demand charges, term, security requirements and curtailment provisions.
- Interconnection record: queue position, studies, deposits, approved scope and remaining conditions.
- Permits and approvals: generation, transmission, substation, environmental and building approvals, with expiration dates.
- Infrastructure schedule: transformer and switchgear orders, substation construction, transmission work, testing and the planned energization date.
- Usable-load calculation: customer IT megawatts after cooling, electrical losses, redundancy and operating reserves.
- Reliability design: topology, backup generation, fuel arrangements, maintenance windows and any single points of failure.
- Price structure: fixed and variable power costs, pass-through rights, demand charges and exposure to market or fuel prices.
- Funding plan: committed debt or equity, customer contributions, utility deposits and contingency for overruns.
Separate current, contracted and optional power
Model three buckets independently: power already energized and usable; power contractually promised for a defined delivery date; and power that is merely planned, optional or subject to approval. Give each bucket its own probability, capital schedule and cash-flow start. A forecast increase should not improve the value of today’s operating asset until the permitting, construction and energization milestones are credible.
Ionic Digital’s Ward County disclosure demonstrates the distinction. It says the property currently has 234 MW of energy capacity under a 126-month lease, while an additional 89 MW is expected in the second half of 2027. The expansion is subject to regulatory approval, delivery is not guaranteed, and the agreement has no penalty if the additional capacity cannot be supplied. The 89 MW therefore belongs in a risk-adjusted future case, not in current operating occupancy.
Check the commercial consequences of a shortfall
Read whether a customer can suspend rent, terminate, reject a phase, claim damages or buy replacement power when the landlord misses a milestone. A utility delay may leave the operator paying financing and labor costs without revenue. If the lease imposes no meaningful remedy, the tenant has less incentive to absorb delay risk and the owner bears more of it.
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Read customer commitments as contracts, not headlines
“Contracted revenue” is meaningful only after you understand who owes it, when the obligation begins, and what conditions can prevent it from arising. Obtain the executed lease and every amendment rather than relying on a press release, investor presentation or letter of intent.
Questions for each anchor customer
- Identity and credit: name the legal tenant, guarantors, parent support, security package, credit rating or other evidence of payment capacity, and concentration as a percentage of site and portfolio revenue.
- Agreement status: distinguish a definitive signed lease from a memorandum, reservation, capacity award or announced partnership.
- Load and phasing: record contracted IT megawatts, delivery tranches, ramp profile, acceptance tests and the customer’s rights to expand, reduce or defer later phases.
- Commencement: identify the exact trigger for rent—lease signing, substantial completion, energization, customer acceptance or another event—and whether a delay moves that date.
- Economics: capture base rent, escalators, power pass-throughs, one-time fees, tenant improvement contributions, taxes and operating-expense recoveries.
- Term and options: record the base term, renewal options, notice periods, extension pricing and any rights to relocate or assign the lease.
- Cancellation and termination: identify termination-for-convenience rights, default rights, force-majeure language, insolvency provisions and the amount actually payable after termination.
- Delivery obligations: list construction, permitting, interconnection and performance conditions, along with acceptance standards and outside dates.
- Remedies: quantify liquidated damages, rent abatements, make-whole payments, replacement-power rights and termination rights if capacity or power is late or unavailable.
- Credit support: verify letters of credit, parent guarantees, deposits, prepayments and step-down schedules.
Take-or-pay does not eliminate delivery risk
Applied Digital describes its executed leases this way: “Each lease is a direct, long-term agreement with CoreWeave or an investment-grade hyperscaler, is structured on a take-or-pay basis, and is non-cancellable, such that a termination for convenience would require payment of the full remaining contractual value.” That is a strong description of the tenant’s payment obligation as reported by the company for its fiscal year ended May 31, 2026. It does not, by itself, prove that every contracted megawatt is already operating.
The same filing reports that expected delivery remains subject to construction, permitting, interconnection and other execution risks. Thus, payment protection and delivery certainty are separate underwriting questions: a contract may be difficult for a tenant to cancel while the owner still must spend capital and meet milestones before rent can begin.
Optional capacity needs its own valuation
Do not value an optional expansion as if it were a firm lease. Ionic Digital’s disclosure states: “We cannot guarantee that the power generation at our Ward County property will be expanded as currently contemplated and there is no penalty under the Nscale Agreement if we are unable to provide Nscale with the additional 89 MW of capacity.” The absence of a shortfall penalty means the owner may incur planning or construction costs without receiving compensating revenue if the expansion fails.
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Bridge contracted revenue to cash flow and returns
A headline revenue figure over a long base term is not a return calculation. Build a monthly or quarterly model by delivery tranche. Revenue should start only when the contract says it starts and the required capacity is actually available.
Capital items to include
- Land acquisition, site preparation and permitting.
- Shell construction and structural work.
- Utility deposits, transmission, substation, transformers and switchgear.
- Electrical distribution, generators, fuel systems, cooling and fire protection.
- Network connectivity, security, monitoring and commissioning.
- Customer fit-out, tenant improvements and equipment supplied by the owner.
- Interest during construction, financing fees, taxes, insurance and working capital.
- Contingency for equipment inflation, schedule delay, redesign and interconnection changes.
Cash-flow timing tests
For each phase, calculate the date of first capital draw, the date of energization, customer acceptance, rent commencement, stabilized operating expense and free-cash-flow break-even. Then stress the schedule by delaying energization, increasing construction cost, reducing usable IT load and moving the customer’s ramp. A project that produces an attractive nominal return after a 15-year term may destroy value if two years of financing and operating costs precede rent.
Equinix’s 2025 Form 10-K illustrates why obligations outside the rent roll matter. At December 31, 2025, it reported approximately $6.3 billion of unaccrued capital-expenditure contractual commitments and approximately $2.1 billion of other non-capital purchase commitments, including selected power purchases. The filing said most capital commitments were payable within the following 12 months and most other purchase commitments within two years. In your model, align those cash calls with debt maturities, customer contributions and expected rent rather than treating contracted revenue as immediately available liquidity.
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Measure returns on incremental capital
Calculate unlevered and levered cash flow separately. For each expansion, show total remaining capital, annual stabilized revenue, operating margin, maintenance capital, taxes and the time to free-cash-flow break-even. Include refinancing risk when debt matures before the lease produces steady cash. Equinix identifies required investment and lead time to free-cash-flow break-even among its expansion considerations; those are useful questions for any operator, not a universal guarantee of performance.
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Use disclosed examples without mixing definitions
Published figures from different operators are not directly comparable. They use different dates, denominators, contract definitions and development stages.
| Operator and date | Reported figure | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Applied Digital, May 31, 2026 | 1,410 MW of contracted critical IT load across five campuses; approximately $36.2 billion of total contracted revenue over initial 15-year base terms; approximately 100 MW operating and revenue-generating. | The revenue figure excludes renewal options. Delivery remains subject to construction, permitting, interconnection and other risks. Contracted load is far larger than operating, revenue-generating load. |
| Ionic Digital, 2026 filing | 234 MW of current Ward County energy capacity under a 126-month lease; approximately $1.95 billion estimated total contracted revenue. | Fixed monthly payments were scheduled to begin in August 2026. The revenue estimate is company-reported and not independently verified here. |
| Ionic Digital, 2026 filing | Additional 89 MW expected in the second half of 2027. | Subject to regulatory approval; delivery is not guaranteed and the agreement provides no penalty if the capacity cannot be supplied. |
| Core Scientific, December 31, 2025 | Approximately 1.4 GW of gross utility capacity and approximately 920 MW of leasable customer power capacity across ten data centers. | These are different denominators. The surfaced filing excerpt should be checked against the company’s filing before relying on the figures; neither number alone states occupancy or revenue generation. |
Compare projects on consistent underwriting axes
When choosing among assets or public companies, use the same definitions and reporting date for every candidate. A comparison that mixes operating megawatts at one site with gross utility megawatts at another will overstate the apparent advantage of the latter.
| Axis | Questions to answer | Evidence to request |
|---|---|---|
| Operating status | How much load is energized, accepted and producing revenue today? | Site schedule, commissioning certificates, invoices and rent roll. |
| Occupancy quality | Is the percentage based on occupied area, delivered IT load, contracted load or reservations? | Definition, denominator bridge and site-by-site reconciliation. |
| Power certainty | Is capacity firm, approved, under construction or merely planned? | Utility agreement, interconnection approval, permits and energization milestones. |
| Customer quality | Who pays, how concentrated is revenue, and what support exists if the tenant weakens? | Executed leases, guarantees, deposits and credit analysis. |
| Contract enforceability | Can the tenant cancel, defer or reject a phase? What remedies apply to owner delay? | Termination, acceptance, force-majeure and liquidated-damages clauses. |
| Remaining capital | What must still be spent before each tranche earns rent, and how is it funded? | Independent cost estimate, committed financing, capex schedule and contingency. |
| Cash-flow timing | When does each phase reach free-cash-flow break-even? | Integrated construction, debt, operating and lease model. |
| Strategic fit | Can the location provide network access, power reliability, cooling and design suitable for the target workload? | Network maps, reliability studies, design specifications and customer requirements. |
Equinix lists customer demand, power availability, design quality, network and cloud access, required investment and time to free-cash-flow break-even among its expansion criteria. Treat those disclosures as a practical checklist, not as proof that a particular project meets the criteria.
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Red flags that commonly inflate apparent value
Contracted megawatts exceed deliverable megawatts
If contracted load is several times operating load, ask whether the difference is normal phased construction or evidence of an aggressive sales claim. Require dates, milestones and remaining capital for every tranche.
Gross utility power is presented as customer capacity
Gross supply may include redundancy, losses, cooling and capacity reserved for future buildings. Recalculate the tenant-usable IT load using the operator’s own engineering assumptions.
Revenue is quoted without rent commencement
Ask whether the number is a maximum over the full base term, a present-value amount, or recognized revenue. Exclude renewal options unless they are contractually committed and priced.
“Non-cancellable” language hides conditions
Inspect delivery conditions, force majeure, outside dates, acceptance tests, landlord defaults and insolvency provisions. A tenant may owe a make-whole payment after convenience termination but still have rights if the facility is late or defective.
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An optional megawatt tranche with no shortfall penalty should not receive the same probability as energized capacity under a firm agreement.
Capital commitments are omitted from liquidity analysis
Unaccrued construction and power-purchase commitments can consume cash before a project reaches break-even. Reconcile them to debt covenants, revolver availability and customer funding.
A practical diligence sequence
- Fix the date and definitions. Write down the reporting date and define gross, usable, contracted, operating and revenue-generating capacity.
- Build the site bridge. Reconcile utility or generation capacity to customer IT load, showing overhead, redundancy and phased delivery.
- Map the power path. Verify utility rights, interconnection, permits, equipment orders, energization milestones, price and curtailment risk.
- Inventory every customer agreement. Classify each as signed lease, amendment, reservation, letter of intent or pipeline, then extract load, term, rent start and remedies.
- Test tenant credit and concentration. Model default, downgrade, parent-support failure and the cost and time to re-lease specialized capacity.
- Model capital and timing. Include all infrastructure, fit-out, financing, taxes, operating costs, contingencies and customer contributions by phase.
- Run downside cases. Delay energization, reduce usable load, remove an optional expansion, increase capex, stress power prices and assume a customer default.
- Obtain independent validation. Use current audited filings, executed leases and utility documents, an independent engineering review, the local permitting record, debt and covenant schedules, and a sensitivity analysis.
- Set an investment hurdle. Require adequate return for delivery, power, tenant, financing and residual-value risk; do not substitute a long contract term for a risk assessment.
What this framework can—and cannot—tell you
This process can reveal whether reported capacity is operating or prospective, whether power is actually deliverable, whether customer obligations are binding, and how much capital and time stand between a contract and cash flow. It cannot determine fair value without a current market price, regional power costs, comparable transactions, tax assumptions and asset-specific financing.
There is no single market-wide occupancy benchmark that makes every data center comparable. Define the geography, facility type, redundancy standard, capacity denominator and date before using an occupancy, yield or cap-rate comparison. For an actual investment, rely on current filings and executed documents rather than a headline megawatt or revenue figure.
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