Estimate the conversion from the AI tenant backward, not from the mining site’s historical hash rate or electrical nameplate. Define the critical IT load, rack density, cooling, redundancy, schedule and commercial delivery model; verify what power and equipment the site can legally and reliably provide; price every work package; then divide the stated scope by critical IT megawatts. A 2026 MMCG Invest model for a 100 MW Garden City, Texas conversion totals $998.15 million, or about $9.98 million per MW of critical IT load, but that is a single set of assumptions—not a universal price or a vendor bid.
What a meaningful per-MW estimate includes
“Cost per MW” is useful only when the denominator and scope are explicit. Use critical IT load—the power delivered to servers and networking—as the denominator, rather than utility service, substation nameplate, or total facility load. State whether the numerator includes land, acquisition, interconnection rights, shell buildings, electrical and mechanical plant, redundancy, financing, construction carry, tenant fit-out, and compute hardware.
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Keep four budgets separate:
- Landlord infrastructure: site control, utility/interconnection work, buildings, electrical distribution, generators, cooling plant, fire protection, security and commissioning.
- Tenant fit-out: rack manifolds, in-row or rack-level connections, IT network, racks, controls interfaces and other items assigned to the occupant.
- Compute: servers, GPUs, storage and the software stack. These can exceed the facility budget and have different utilization and refresh risks.
- Financing and carry: interest during construction, deposits, insurance, taxes and reserves. Show them separately from hard construction cost.
Without these boundaries, two projects can both claim “$10 million per MW” while delivering very different assets.
Step 1: Define the AI product before pricing the site
Write a one-page performance brief that a utility, engineer and tenant can all price. Include the following decisions.
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Critical capacity, phasing and dates
Specify initial and ultimate critical IT MW, the energization date for each phase, commissioning sequence, and whether capacity must be firm on day one or can ramp as utility and tenant equipment arrive. A 100 MW ultimate design with four 25 MW phases has different switchgear, financing and revenue exposure from a single 100 MW block.
Rack density and cooling architecture
Record average and peak rack kW, the percentage of liquid-cooled racks, coolant temperature and flow requirements, allowable inlet temperatures, and residual air-cooling load. The Garden City model assumes direct-to-chip liquid cooling at approximately 130 kW per rack. That is a tenant-program assumption, not a requirement for every AI deployment.
Availability and maintainability
Choose the target topology—such as N+1 concurrent maintainability, 2N, or another contractual standard—and define what must remain online during maintenance. Redundancy affects transformers, medium-voltage paths, UPS modules, generators, automatic transfer and paralleling gear, controls, pumps and heat rejection. Do not infer an availability level from the mine’s former operating practice.
Connectivity and delivered product
Define fiber route diversity, carrier count, meet-me rooms, cross-connects and required capacity. The modeled tenant calls for two diverse fiber carriers. Also decide whether the transaction delivers a powered shell, a landlord-funded finished data center, a tenant-fitted facility, or a GPU cloud service. Those products place capital and operating risk with different parties.
Reference design assumptions
The Garden City case uses 100 MW of critical IT, N+1 concurrent maintainability, direct-to-chip cooling at about 130 kW per rack, two diverse fiber carriers and an annual design PUE of 1.28. Treat each figure as a stated model input. Your tenant may require a different PUE, density, redundancy or network design.
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Step 2: Establish a verified site baseline
Obtain evidence before assigning reuse value. A nameplate or a mining-era peak load does not prove firm, non-curtailable AI capacity.
Power and utility documents
- Single-line diagrams, substation and switchyard drawings, transformer test reports, protection settings and maintenance records.
- Interconnection agreements, transmission or distribution service documents, queue status, assignment rights and any change-of-use conditions.
- Retail supply contracts, utility bills, interval load history, curtailment records and demand-charge structure.
- Written confirmation of firm service, available MW, energization milestones and the utility or transmission-provider determination required for the proposed load.
Separate five values in the model: nameplate MW, energized MW, utility-approved MW, firm service MW and critical IT MW. They are not interchangeable. MMCG Invest’s account of the Garden City transaction reports 200 MW of nameplate capacity and 132 MW energized at sale in 2024, while noting that transformer condition, capacity and several as-built details were not publicly verified. The case therefore treats written firm service and a grid determination as project conditions.
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Physical, legal and operational records
- Equipment inventories, serial numbers, condition assessments, remaining useful life and spare-parts availability.
- Permits, certificates of occupancy, fire-system records, environmental reports, geotechnical data, flood risk and structural/slab loading.
- Title, lease, easements, lender consents, assignment restrictions and obligations to remove or relocate mining equipment.
- Fiber-route maps, carrier letters, right-of-way permissions and meet-me-room locations.
- Current mining operations, shutdown liabilities, reclamation requirements, employee and security arrangements, and insurance history.
Require an engineer and the utility to sign off on the baseline. A spreadsheet that simply copies historical mining load into an AI pro forma is not a capacity study.
Step 3: Build a reuse-and-gap register
For every asset, assign one disposition: reuse as-is, upgrade, replace, demolish, or investigate. Record capacity, condition, code compliance, ownership, lead time and the cost of keeping it in service. Value reused equipment separately from new construction so that an acquisition premium is not mistaken for conversion savings.
Electrical assets that may be reusable
Substations, switchyards, transformers and medium-voltage distribution can shorten the path to service if their ratings, protection, ownership and utility approvals align with the AI load. A mine may still need a second main transformer, a medium-voltage ring, data-center switchgear, UPS and batteries, N+1 generators, automatic transfer and paralleling gear, grounding, lightning protection and an electrical power-management system.
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Mechanical assets and the liquid-cooling gap
Mining sites are commonly air cooled. In the Garden City model, the existing mining mechanical equipment is assumed unable to serve the liquid-cooled design, so the project adds coolant-distribution units (CDUs), primary and secondary loops, pumps, heat rejection, residual air cooling, containment and controls. A site with suitable chilled-water or dry-cooler capacity could avoid some replacement, while a site without water rights, pipe corridors or structural support may incur additional civil work. Never credit a fan wall or mining ventilation system as AI cooling without a thermal and controls analysis.
Buildings and structures
Inspect slab loading and vibration, clear heights, roof loading, crane and loading access, fire separation, egress, envelope weatherproofing, security and space for electrical rooms, CDUs, pumps, fuel and network rooms. Demolishing containers, racks, fan walls and air-cooled buildings may be cheaper than adapting them, but salvage value and disposal obligations belong in the register.
Step 4: Price the work packages bottom-up
Use a quantity-based estimate with a written scope, design maturity, escalation date, contingency basis and owner for each line. The following package list covers the items that commonly determine the conversion budget.
| Work package | Include in the estimate |
|---|---|
| Acquisition and site control | Land or leasehold, interconnection assignment, title, surveys, environmental work and transaction costs. |
| Demolition and salvage | Removal of mining containers, racks, fan walls and air-cooled buildings; hazardous-material handling and salvage credits. |
| Electrical | Transformers and bays, MV distribution and switchgear, UPS and batteries, PDUs or busway, generators and fuel yard, ATS/paralleling, grounding, lightning protection and EPMS. |
| Mechanical and liquid cooling | CDUs, primary/secondary loops, piping, pumps, dry coolers or other heat rejection, residual air cooling, containment, controls, water and site work. |
| Buildings and structure | Data halls, envelope, slabs, loading areas, administration/NOC, fire detection and suppression, and physical security. |
| Network | Diverse fiber laterals, meet-me rooms, cross-connects and the boundary between landlord and tenant network work. |
| Soft and other hard costs | Engineering, permits, general conditions, commissioning, builder fee, contingency, taxes during construction, insurance, owner costs and legal fees. |
| Schedule and carry | Long-lead deposits, construction interest, utility or security deposits, temporary revenue, phased commissioning and delay reserves. |
Garden City modeled allowances
MMCG Invest’s 2026 model for a 100 MW Garden City conversion assigns the following amounts:
| Modeled category | Amount | Approximate per critical-IT MW |
|---|---|---|
| Electrical upgrades | $292 million | $2.92 million/MW |
| Mechanical and liquid cooling | $267.9 million | $2.679 million/MW |
| Buildings | $104 million | $1.04 million/MW |
| Other hard cost | $168.9 million | $1.689 million/MW |
| Site acquisition | $80.55 million | $0.8055 million/MW |
| Financial cost | $48.8 million | $0.488 million/MW |
| Total landlord project | $998.15 million | about $9.98 million/MW |
The same case defines hard conversion—demolition, electrical, mechanical, building and other hard costs—as $836.8 million, or about $8.37 million per MW. These are modeled allowances for one site and scope, not bids, appraisals or a benchmark that can be transplanted to another mine.
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How much does liquid cooling add?
There is no universal premium because the answer depends on rack density, coolant architecture, heat-rejection choice, water availability, pipe routes, controls, residual air load and redundancy. Price the entire thermal chain rather than a CDU as a standalone item:
- Define liquid-cooled rack count, peak kW per rack, supply and return temperatures, flow, water chemistry and leak detection.
- Size CDUs and primary and secondary loops for the selected redundancy while preserving maintenance paths.
- Price pumps, valves, filtration, expansion equipment, controls, monitoring and leak-response systems.
- Choose heat rejection—dry coolers, cooling towers, chilled water or another design—and include structural, electrical and water-related site work.
- Retain residual air cooling for non-liquid loads, rooms and transitional equipment; include containment and the BMS/EPMS interfaces.
- Commission the system at design density and document the tenant/landlord connection point.
In the Garden City model, the mechanical and liquid-cooling allowance is $267.9 million, or $2.679 million per critical-IT MW, including CDUs, loops, pumps, heat rejection, air cooling, containment and controls. That figure is a project allowance, not a retail CDU price or a guaranteed incremental premium over air cooling. Modular Capital’s 2026 analysis describes approximately $10 million per MW for a fully liquid-cooled conversion; it is an analysis, not a project quote.
Normalize the estimate before comparing projects
Publish a cost stack that lets a reader remove or add scope without ambiguity.
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Total project cost | All stated landlord costs, with acquisition, financing, owner costs, contingency, taxes and carry identified. |
| Landlord cost per MW | Total landlord project cost divided by critical IT MW, not utility or nameplate MW. |
| Hard conversion per MW | Demolition, electrical, mechanical, building and other hard costs divided by critical IT MW. |
| Tenant fit-out per MW | Tenant-funded racks, manifolds, network and related work divided by critical IT MW. |
| Compute per MW | GPU, server, storage and software capital shown separately; do not bury it in facility cost. |
| Excluding land and interconnection | A comparison view for disclosures that omit acquisition or utility rights. |
State the pricing date, escalation, taxes, contingency percentage, design maturity, financing rate, construction duration and owner costs. The SEC-filed Atlantic HPC Group Inc. presentation compares shell retrofit, full conversion and greenfield ranges, but its categories and timing differ; use those figures only with attribution and scope caveats, never as a universal benchmark.
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| Model | Landlord typically delivers | Primary risk |
|---|---|---|
| Powered shell | Site, utility service, shell and a defined power handoff; tenant funds most mechanical, electrical fit-out and IT. | Tenant bears fit-out cost, schedule integration and equipment procurement. |
| Landlord-funded full conversion | Power, buildings, cooling plant, redundancy and commissioning to an agreed handoff. | Landlord carries construction and financing risk but needs credible tenant credit and lease term. |
| Tenant-funded fit-out | Landlord funds infrastructure to the handoff; tenant funds racks, manifolds, network and operations-specific systems. | Boundary disputes and delayed tenant capital can postpone revenue. |
| GPU cloud | Operator supplies the facility and owns or finances compute. | Highest exposure to GPU prices, utilization, refresh cycles, power cost and customer credit. |
In the Garden City example, the landlord funds the shell, power and cooling plant to the CDU, plus redundancy. The tenant funds rack manifolds, IT network, racks and all compute. The modeled tenant fit-out is $90 million excluding compute—$0.9 million per critical-IT MW—and sits outside the landlord loan basis. Put the handoff point, testing obligations, metering and change-order rights in the lease and technical exhibits.
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Add operating economics without confusing them with capex
Conversion feasibility depends on recurring costs and revenue, but these should remain separate from the capital estimate. Build an operating model for:
- Electricity energy, demand charges, losses and PUE; show any pass-through formula and audit rights.
- Water, treatment, discharge and drought-related restrictions where applicable.
- Staffing, security, network service, maintenance contracts, spare parts, generator testing and fuel.
- Property tax, insurance, permits and lifecycle replacement reserves.
- Lease term, rent commencement, escalators, tenant-funded capital, utilization and GPU refresh if the operator owns compute.
- Debt service, coverage ratios, deposits, guarantees and the effect of delayed energization.
The Garden City study models electricity pass-through, property tax, insurance, staffing, maintenance, lifecycle reserve, lease terms and debt coverage as assumptions. Financing outcomes depend on the lease and backstop structure; none is a market guarantee.
Stress the assumptions and set diligence gates
Run sensitivities before approving a purchase or signing a lease. At minimum vary:
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- Reuse versus replacement of transformers, switchgear, generators and cooling equipment.
- Rack density, liquid-cooling share, PUE and redundancy topology.
- Long-lead equipment pricing and delivery, construction duration and commissioning productivity.
- Power price, water cost, contingency, financing rate and construction interest.
- Lease commencement, tenant credit, utilization and GPU ownership.
Use explicit stop/go gates: written utility and transmission-provider confirmation; assignable interconnection rights; generator and emissions authorization where required; completed structural, geotechnical, environmental and fire reviews; a defined tenant scope; and budgetary or firm supplier bids for long-lead equipment. Requirements are jurisdiction-specific, so do not copy Texas permitting or grid assumptions to another state or country.
Worked interpretation of the Garden City case
The Garden City example is best read as a transparent model, not as a market quote. It assumes a 100 MW critical-IT conversion and totals $998.15 million, including acquisition, reused-plant value, financing and carry—approximately $9.98 million per MW. Removing acquisition, financing and other non-hard elements leaves the modeled $836.8 million hard conversion, or about $8.37 million per MW. Electrical upgrades account for $292 million and mechanical/liquid cooling for $267.9 million because the model assumes new redundancy and a new cooling plant rather than direct reuse of mining air-cooling equipment.
The reported 200 MW nameplate and 132 MW energized figures show why a baseline audit matters: neither number alone establishes 100 MW of firm critical IT. Transformer condition and as-built details require verification, and the model conditions feasibility on written firm service and a grid determination. The tenant’s separate $90 million non-compute fit-out demonstrates why a landlord-only figure can understate the capital needed to operate AI racks.
What a conversion estimate excludes unless you add it
- GPUs, servers, storage, software licenses and tenant financing.
- Tenant racks, rack manifolds, IT network and other work beyond the agreed CDU or utility handoff.
- Unconfirmed utility upgrades, transmission reinforcements, curtailment remedies or new interconnection deposits.
- Unknown contamination, structural remediation, flood work, demolition surprises and disposal liabilities.
- Escalation after the estimate date, schedule delay, temporary power and lost mining revenue unless expressly modeled.
- Operating electricity, taxes, insurance, staffing, maintenance, water and lifecycle reserves unless shown in a separate pro forma.
A credible budget labels each exclusion and gives the decision-maker a way to add it. A real investment-grade estimate requires current supplier bids, engineering design, permitting review, utility confirmation and inspections of the target site; the Garden City assumptions cannot resolve those site-specific costs.
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