To compare natural gas, coal, wind, and solar fairly, use one consistent measure—usually levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)—for the same place, project year, financing assumptions, and policy treatment. LCOE estimates a plant’s lifetime cost per unit of electricity, but it does not tell you the full value or system cost of the power. For a sound comparison, pair it with measures of market value, output timing, and flexibility.
Start with a like-for-like LCOE comparison
LCOE expresses the revenue a generator would need to recover its costs over a specified cost-recovery period. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses that framing for generators; the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) describes levelised cost as the lifetime cost per megawatt-hour generated by a generic plant. The definitions are related, but each dataset has its own methodology. Use the methodology attached to the figures you choose rather than treating estimates from different sources as interchangeable.
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Before comparing numbers, set a common basis:
- Project type: Compare new-build plants with new-build plants, and existing plants with existing plants. For renewables, match technology class, such as utility-scale solar PV with utility-scale solar PV.
- Geography and year: Specify the market and the year the project is assumed to enter service. Fuel prices, resource quality, construction costs, and policy vary by location and time.
- Units and currency: Put costs in the same currency and energy unit, such as dollars per megawatt-hour, and check whether figures are nominal or adjusted to a common price year.
- Financing: Use consistent assumptions for cost of capital and project life.
- Policy: State whether tax credits, subsidies, taxes, and carbon costs are included. Do not compare subsidized figures for one technology against unsubsidized figures for another.
The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2026 models U.S. generators entering service in 2031 and provides regional values and ranges. DESNZ’s 2025 electricity generation cost report, published in January 2026 and updated in March, gives generic-plant estimates. These sources answer different questions; choose one dataset for a matched comparison rather than combining their numbers into a single ranking.
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LCOE is shaped by the investment required, how much electricity a plant produces, and the costs of running it. The same factor can affect technologies differently, so inspect the assumptions behind each estimate.
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Capital cost and financing
Construction costs must be recovered over the electricity a plant generates during its cost-recovery period. A higher cost of capital increases the financing burden. In its Global Energy and Climate Model inputs, the International Energy Agency (IEA) uses weighted average cost of capital assumptions of 4–7% for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind, 5–8% for offshore wind, and 8–9% for coal and gas plants. These are model inputs that vary with development context, not universal market rates.
Capacity factor and expected output
Capacity factor is the average output of a plant relative to its rated capacity. If a project produces fewer megawatt-hours while carrying the same capital costs, its LCOE rises, all else equal. Resource quality, weather, plant design, and operating conditions therefore matter when comparing wind and solar projects or estimating output from conventional plants.
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Fuel, operations, and maintenance
Natural gas and coal plants incur fuel costs, which can change with market prices and scenario assumptions. All four technologies also have operating and maintenance costs. Check whether a source includes fuel, operations and maintenance (O&M), and any carbon price consistently across the estimates.
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Policy treatment can change a reported cost. A tax credit may lower an after-policy estimate; a carbon cost or tax may raise one. Label the treatment clearly and avoid mixing policy-inclusive and policy-exclusive values.
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Use figures only within their stated scope
As global context—not as a four-way, regional comparison—the IEA reports 2024 global weighted-average LCOE of USD 0.034/kWh for onshore wind and USD 0.043/kWh for solar PV in its 2025 Breakthrough Agenda report. Those figures do not provide matched gas and coal estimates. They should not be used to rank all four technologies against one another.
Likewise, the IEA’s financing assumptions above describe a model, not what every project pays. When quoting any estimate, keep its publisher, year, geography, project class, and scenario alongside the number. The EIA, DESNZ, and IEA figures described here differ in purpose, scope, and methodology.
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LCOE is not the same as electricity value or system cost
A low plant-level LCOE does not necessarily mean the electricity is available when it is most valuable, or that it can supply demand on its own. Wind and solar output depends on weather and resource availability; gas and coal units can generally be scheduled, subject to operating and fuel constraints. Electricity prices and grid needs change through the day and year, so when generation arrives matters.
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The IEA cost inputs for solar and wind cited above exclude storage. They should not be presented as costs that include batteries, firming, or other measures to balance variable output. A system-level comparison must define which flexibility and grid costs are included rather than assume they are part of plant LCOE.
Best Value
- SAFETY YOU CAN TRUST WITH UL CERTIFICATION: With Emporia Energy, your home energy monitoring is safe, reliable, and certified. The Emporia Vue is UL Listed, meaning it has met rigorous safety standards for electrical products in the U.S. and Canada. This certification ensures that every component has been thoroughly tested to prevent hazards, such as overheating, short-circuiting, or fire, offering you peace of mind as you manage your home’s energy consumption.
- INSTALLS IN CIRCUIT PANEL of most homes with clamp-on sensors. Supports Single phase, Single-split phase, and 2-wire systems. 3-wire systems; 3-phase, 4-wire Wye systems with earthed (TN or TT) neutral (no-Delta) are supported with an additional 200A sensor (sold separately).
- 24/7 ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING: Automate, manage and control your home's real power anywhere, anytime to prevent costly repairs, conserve energy, and save costs. Monitor solar / net metering. PROTECTED BY A 1-YEAR WARRANTY.
- LOWER YOUR ELECTRIC BILL: Configure settings in the Emporia Energy App to automate energy management for time of use, peak demand, excess solar, and rewards programs. You can even see live reporting and invaluable savings opportunities instantly. Gauge real-time spending and get actionable notifications and automated energy management to help you reduce costs.
- REAL-TIME ENERGY DATA: REQUIRES 2.4 GHz WIFI WITH AN INTERNET CONNECTION to monitor energy use with iPhone / Android / Web app. Vue sensors collect energy data and are accurate from ±2%. The Vue is UL and CE Listed for your safety. 1 second data is only available in the app (when actively open) and retained 3 hours. Minute and hour data are retained in the cloud. 1 minute data is retained 7 days, 1 hour data is retained indefinitely. Export cloud data whenever you want in the app.
To consider value as well as cost, the EIA uses LACE, or levelized avoided cost of electricity, to estimate the value or revenue available from electricity a generator displaces. The agency says, “The relative difference between LCOE and LACE is a better indicator of economic competitiveness than either metric alone.” Its comparison remains a simplified measure: actual construction choices also depend on policy, technology, and geographic factors.
Keep new-build costs separate from existing-plant operating costs
A new plant’s LCOE is not the same as the short-run marginal cost of generating from an existing plant whose construction costs have already been recovered. Lazard’s 2025 analysis explicitly distinguishes new-build costs from the marginal cost of operating existing plants. The comparison can shift with gas prices and plant utilization. Make clear which decision you are examining: what to build, or whether to operate a plant that already exists.
Quick Recap
A practical checklist for comparing four technologies
- Choose the decision: Compare new construction, existing-plant operation, market value, or system-level supply; do not mix these questions.
- Select one regional dataset: Set the geography and project or commissioning year, then use figures calculated with a consistent method.
- Match the plant classes: Identify the type and scale of each generator, including the renewable resource and technology class.
- Align the assumptions: Check currency, energy unit, project life, financing, capacity factor, fuel prices, O&M, taxes, subsidies, and carbon-cost treatment.
- Read beyond LCOE: Assess output timing, dispatchability, and any storage or flexibility needs relevant to the decision.
- Label every number: Include the source, year, geography, and scenario, and do not combine unmatched estimates into a league table.
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