A prediction-market hedge is worth placing only when the cash flow in every covered outcome remains positive after the actual fills, venue fees, spread and book impact. Start with the contracts’ settlement rules, not their labels. Then price the exact quantity by walking the order book, calculate fees separately for every fill on every leg, include any exit trade, and stress the result against worse execution. A compact test is:
net hedge result = combined payout − purchase outlay − fees on all fills − slippage versus the reference prices − other documented transaction costs
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If one outcome is uncovered, or if the contracts resolve differently, the position is an expected-value trade or a residual-risk hedge—not guaranteed arbitrage.
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What “worth it” means in a prediction-market hedge
A hedge can serve two different purposes:
- Guaranteed arbitrage: the contracts’ written rules cover every relevant outcome with matching payouts and settlement timing. After all costs, each outcome produces a positive net cash flow.
- Expected-value or residual-risk hedge: the trade has a positive result only under probability assumptions, or leaves exposure because the contracts do not settle identically.
Do not call a trade risk-free merely because a YES price on one market plus a NO price on another is below $1. Labels can hide different event definitions, cutoff times, resolution sources, void rules, or payout units. A price gap is evidence to investigate, not proof of an arbitrage.
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“Worth it” also depends on execution. A displayed best offer may represent only a few shares. Buying a larger quantity can move through several price levels, turning an apparent margin into a loss. Explicit platform fees, the bid-ask spread and order-book impact are separate costs and should not be counted twice.
1. Write the payoff and settlement rules before looking at the spread
Create a payoff map for every leg. For each contract, record what one share pays, the outcomes that trigger payment, the resolution source, the closing time, and what happens if the market is voided or ambiguous.
Build an outcome table
| Item | Leg A | Leg B |
|---|---|---|
| Position and quantity | For example, 1,000 YES shares | For example, 1,000 NO shares |
| Cash paid at execution | Price per share × filled quantity | Price per share × filled quantity |
| Payout if event occurs | Write the exact settlement amount | Write the exact settlement amount |
| Payout if event does not occur | Write the exact settlement amount | Write the exact settlement amount |
| Resolution date and source | Use the contract rulebook | Use the contract rulebook |
| Void, cancellation or dispute treatment | Use the contract rulebook | Use the contract rulebook |
A valid guaranteed hedge requires matching quantities and complementary payouts under every rule-defined state, including unusual states such as a delayed announcement, a changed event, or a void. If one leg pays on a different date, uses a different data source, or defines the event differently, model that exposure explicitly.
Check settlement timing and capital lock-up
Capital can remain committed until both markets resolve. Compare that duration, and the possibility of a leg being filled while the other is not, with the size of the expected edge. A small theoretical margin may not compensate for capital tied up or for the risk that the second order never fills.
2. Use executable prices for the quantity you actually intend to trade
Use the visible order book, not the midpoint or top-of-book quote. For a buy, consume asks from the cheapest level upward; for a sell, consume bids from the highest level downward. Stop when the target quantity is filled or when available depth runs out.
Walk each level and calculate the weighted average
For fills with prices pi and quantities qi, calculate:
average fill price = Σ(pi × qi) ÷ Σqi
The amount paid is Σ(pi × qi). If the initial hedge estimate used a reference price pref, estimated slippage for a buy is:
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slippage cost = (average fill price − pref) × quantity
For a sell, reverse the sign so that a worse, lower sale price is a positive cost. Keep this slippage line separate from explicit trading fees.
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Illustrative order-book calculation
Suppose you plan to buy 1,000 shares on each leg. The reference estimate used $0.56 for Leg A and $0.38 for Leg B.
| Leg and level | Quantity | Price | Level cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leg A ask 1 | 300 | $0.56 | $168.00 |
| Leg A ask 2 | 400 | $0.57 | $228.00 |
| Leg A ask 3 | 300 | $0.58 | $174.00 |
| Leg A total | 1,000 | $0.570 average | $570.00 |
| Leg B ask 1 | 500 | $0.38 | $190.00 |
| Leg B ask 2 | 300 | $0.39 | $117.00 |
| Leg B ask 3 | 200 | $0.40 | $80.00 |
| Leg B total | 1,000 | $0.387 average | $387.00 |
The reference outlay was $940 ($560 + $380), while the executable outlay is $957. Estimated slippage is therefore $17: $10 on Leg A and $7 on Leg B. The gross payout if exactly one leg pays $1 per share is $1,000, so the gross margin at these executable prices is $43 before fees.
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Capture the book immediately before sending orders
Record the timestamp, side, target quantity, displayed levels and the reference price used in your original calculation. If the book changes while you are placing the two legs, recalculate rather than assuming the earlier margin remains available.
3. Calculate fees for every fill and every leg
Apply the venue’s current, market-specific formula to each executed quantity and price. Do not apply a generic percentage to the headline spread.
Polymarket’s published fee treatment
The Polymarket Help Center article “Trading Fees”, published July 10, 2026, states that taker fees apply only to certain markets, makers are not charged, and fees are set by protocol and applied when an order matches. It gives this formula:
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Cis the number of shares traded.pis the share price for that fill.feeRatedepends on the market category and current schedule.
The same article says fees are rounded to five decimal places and the minimum charge is 0.00001 USDC. It also states that geopolitical and world-events markets are fee-free under the schedule described in that article. Those exclusions and rates can change, so open the live fee terms for the individual market immediately before trading. The article’s exact wording is: “Makers are never charged fees.” That statement should be read within the markets and schedule covered by the article, not as a universal rule for every future market.
Kalshi’s schedule must be checked live
Use Kalshi’s official Fee Schedule for the current rate and market treatment. A historical PDF, Fee Schedule for Feb 2026 – 2.5.26 Update, effective February 5, 2026, describes fees on immediately matched orders, explains the general calculation mechanics and directs users to the current schedule for active rates and market-specific changes. Do not present rates from that historical document as current without checking the live page.
Apply rounding and minimums at the required stage
If the venue specifies per-fill rounding, calculate and round each fill separately, then add the rounded amounts. A single calculation on the total quantity can differ from the platform’s charge when prices vary by level. Include maker or taker status for each fill: a partially filled order can have a different treatment from an order that crosses the spread, depending on the venue’s rules.
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Include the exit if you may unwind
If the hedge will be closed before settlement, add the fees and execution cost for both exit trades. Estimate exit prices from the opposite side of the book at the likely exit size; do not reuse the entry quote. If you cannot specify an exit plan, state clearly that the calculation covers settlement only and excludes an uncertain future unwind.
4. Combine payouts, outlay, fees and slippage
For each outcome, calculate the payout from every leg, subtract the cash paid, subtract the fees charged on all fills, and subtract any execution cost measured against your reference prices. Add other documented transaction costs if the venue imposes them.
Worked example with an illustrative fee rate
Using the order-book example, the executable outlay is $957 and the gross payout is $1,000. To demonstrate the mechanics only, assume a 0.02 fee rate for both fills; this is not a statement of any venue’s current rate.
| Leg | Quantity | Average price | Illustrative fee calculation | Fee before rounding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leg A | 1,000 | $0.570 | 1,000 × 0.02 × 0.570 × 0.430 |
$4.90200 |
| Leg B | 1,000 | $0.387 | 1,000 × 0.02 × 0.387 × 0.613 |
$4.74462 |
| Total | 2,000 | $9.64662 |
At that assumed rate, the net result is approximately $33.35 ($43 gross margin minus $9.65 in fees). The $17 slippage is already reflected in the difference between the $940 reference outlay and the $957 executable outlay; do not subtract it a second time from the $43 margin. Alternatively, starting from the reference estimate, the same result is $60 theoretical margin − $17 slippage − $9.65 fees.
Replace the illustrative rate with the live rate for each market and apply the venue’s rounding rule to each actual fill. If the two legs use different categories or platforms, calculate them independently.
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Distinguish guaranteed and expected results
For a guaranteed hedge, write a net cash-flow line for every covered outcome:
| Outcome | Leg A payout | Leg B payout | Less outlay, fees and costs | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event occurs | Use settlement rule | Use settlement rule | Use actual transaction totals | Calculate |
| Event does not occur | Use settlement rule | Use settlement rule | Use actual transaction totals | Calculate |
| Any void, delay or special state | Use settlement rule | Use settlement rule | Use actual transaction totals | Calculate |
Every net column must remain positive for a guaranteed profit. If one row is negative or cannot be evaluated from the written rules, the position is not guaranteed. For an expected-value trade, state the probability assumption for each outcome and calculate the probability-weighted payout separately from the guaranteed cash-flow test.
5. Stress-test the apparent edge
A hedge that wins only at one snapshot price is fragile. Recalculate under adverse but plausible conditions:
- Increase each entry price by one or more visible tick increments.
- Remove the first available book level to represent a cancellation or competing order.
- Reduce available depth so that the order walks farther into the book.
- Apply a higher fee rate or an unfavorable rounding outcome where the schedule permits changes.
- Include both exit legs if settlement is not certain or if you may need to unwind.
- Delay the second leg and model the exposure created while only one side is filled.
In the worked example, adding $0.01 to the average price of both 1,000-share legs increases outlay by $20. The illustrative $33.35 net margin would fall to about $13.35 before any additional fee effect. If a small price or depth change removes the margin, describe the hedge as execution-sensitive rather than locked-in.
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6. Compare alternative hedge routes on the same basis
When several contract pairs appear to hedge the same event, compare the complete cost and risk profile, not just the sum of quoted prices.
| Comparison axis | Questions to answer |
|---|---|
| Total fees | What does the current schedule charge at each leg’s actual quantity and price? Are fees rounded per fill? |
| Maker or taker treatment | Will the order rest and risk non-fill, or cross the spread and execute immediately? What fee category applies to each fill? |
| Spread and depth | How many shares are available at each level for the intended size? What weighted average price results? |
| Legging risk | Can one leg fill while the other moves or disappears? What is the maximum unhedged exposure? |
| Payout equivalence | Do definitions, resolution sources, cutoffs, void rules and payout units match in every outcome? |
| Capital duration | How long is cash locked until both positions settle, and what happens if resolution dates diverge? |
Exact settlement equivalence must come from the rulebooks for the contracts being compared. A fee calculator cannot establish that two markets are interchangeable.
7. A repeatable pre-trade procedure
- Copy the rules. Record the event definition, resolution source, cutoff, payout, void policy and settlement date for each leg.
- List every relevant outcome. Include special or disputed states, not only the headline YES and NO cases.
- Set the target quantity. Match quantities to the payout map and define the maximum unhedged amount you will tolerate.
- Choose the reference prices. Note whether they are midpoint, top-of-book or a prior fill; use them only as an estimate.
- Walk the live book. Multiply each level’s price by the quantity filled there and compute the weighted average for each leg.
- Calculate slippage. Compare the weighted average with the reference price, keeping spread and explicit fees as separate lines.
- Read the live fee terms. Confirm market category, maker/taker treatment, rate, rounding and minimum charge on every venue.
- Compute fees per fill. Apply the exact formula to each executed quantity and price; add any exit fees if an unwind is possible.
- Enumerate net cash flows. Subtract outlay, fees, slippage and documented transaction costs from each outcome’s payout.
- Stress the trade. Re-run the calculation with worse prices, less depth, a higher fee assumption and a delayed second leg.
- Set an execution rule. Define a maximum acceptable average price and cancel the other leg if the hedge cannot be completed within the rule.
- Save the audit trail. Keep the rule versions, order-book snapshot, fills, fee receipts and calculations so the result can be checked after settlement.
Common calculation errors and fixes
Using the best quote for the whole order
Error: multiplying the top ask by the desired quantity.
Fix: walk every available level and use the weighted average fill. If depth is insufficient, mark the unfilled quantity rather than assuming it executes.
Calling the price gap a fee-adjusted profit
Error: applying a fee percentage to a midpoint while ignoring spread and book impact.
Fix: calculate executable prices first, then add explicit fees as a separate line.
Charging one fee for a two-leg hedge
Error: calculating fees on only the cheaper leg or on a single combined notional.
Fix: apply the venue formula to every fill on every leg, with the correct market category and rounding.
Assuming maker status guarantees a fill
Error: choosing a resting order because it may avoid a fee, then treating the unfilled order as part of a completed hedge.
Fix: model fill probability and legging exposure. A lower fee is not useful if the hedge cannot be completed at the required size.
Ignoring an exit trade
Error: calculating only entry costs when the strategy may be unwound before settlement.
Fix: estimate both exit books and include exit fees, or state that the calculation assumes holding to settlement.
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Error: pairing contracts because their titles describe the same broad event.
Fix: compare the written definitions, data sources, cutoffs, void rules, payout units and settlement dates. If any mismatch remains, label the position residual-risk or expected-value.
Using an outdated schedule
Error: carrying forward a rate from a historical document or a third-party calculator.
Fix: check the venue’s current market-level terms immediately before trading. Third-party methodology pages can explain concepts, but official schedules control the charge.
When the calculation says “do not trade”
Reject the hedge when the worst-case net cash flow is zero or negative, when the second leg cannot be filled within your maximum price, when the contracts do not cover the same outcomes, or when a small plausible execution change erases the margin. Also reject it when you cannot verify the current fee treatment or settlement rule. A missed trade costs nothing; a partially filled, mis-specified hedge can leave the entire directional risk on one leg.
Bottom line
Calculate a prediction-market hedge from settlement rules and executable fills, not from headline quotes. Walk the book for the intended size, charge each fill and each leg under the venue’s current terms, include any exit, and test every outcome under worse execution. Only a positive result in every covered outcome after those costs is a guaranteed hedge; anything else should be evaluated and described as an expected-value or residual-risk position.
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