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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesBuild your grocery budget from your household’s own receipts, then adjust it using local prices and a regular review—not a blanket inflation percentage. In August 2026, U.S. food-at-home prices were unchanged from July and 2.2% higher than a year earlier, while food-away-from-home prices were 3.4% higher year over year. Those national figures describe different categories and do not predict what your household or nearby stores will charge.
1. Decide what your grocery budget includes
Choose a weekly or monthly budget period and use it consistently. Define “groceries” before you total receipts so that later comparisons are meaningful.
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- Keep food bought for home separate from restaurant meals and takeout. USDA’s food-at-home price measure is distinct from its food-away-from-home measure.
- Decide whether household supplies, pet food, and prepared meals bought at a grocery store belong in your household category. If you include them, keep that definition consistent; an all-purpose shopping receipt is not directly comparable with an official food-only index.
- Choose a period that fits how you shop and get paid. A weekly target can make shopping decisions easier; a monthly target can suit households that shop less often or want to align with monthly bills.
2. Set a starting target from your own spending
Gather several weeks of grocery receipts, card statements, or transaction history. Sort out spending according to the boundary you chose, then calculate the average per budget period. This observed amount is a baseline, not an obligation: set the target to fit the money available and the household’s actual food needs.
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Note the foods you buy regularly and any large, unusual purchases. If a total looks high, check whether it reflects higher prices, buying more, a different mix of products, a one-off stock-up, or a change in who is eating at home. Those factors affect spending differently, so an overall total alone cannot identify the cause.
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Use USDA Food Plans as context, not a household prescription
USDA’s Thrifty, Low-Cost, Moderate-Cost, and Liberal Food Plans describe modeled market baskets for nutritious food at home at four cost levels. They can provide a national reference point, but they are not personalized budgets: household size, location, dietary needs, shopping access, and what you count as groceries all matter. For example, USDA’s July 2026 report listed the Thrifty plan at $58.60 per week for a female adult aged 20–50; that is a dated reference-plan figure, not a predicted bill for every adult.
USDA says it updates all four plans’ cost levels monthly for food-price inflation using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The underlying baskets do not all have the same update history: the Thrifty Food Plan market basket was last reevaluated in 2021, while the other three plans’ cost levels were last set in 1983 and their baskets last reevaluated in 2007. USDA cautions that market baskets from different methodological periods should not be combined into a single continuous time series. See USDA Food Plans: Monthly Cost of Food Reports.
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3. Turn the target into meals and a shopping list
Before planning, check the pantry, refrigerator, and freezer. Build meals around food already on hand, household preferences, and ingredients that are good value locally. USDA MyPlate recommends using a weekly meal calendar and making the grocery list as the plan takes shape.
- List the meals you expect to prepare during the budget period.
- Mark ingredients you already have and plan ways to use them before they go to waste.
- Write down only the remaining ingredients and quantities needed for those meals.
- Identify a few flexible alternatives for ingredients whose price or availability can change. Choose a substitute that fits the meal and household needs, rather than buying a cheaper item that may not be used.
A calendar or notebook can help keep the plan and list together, but neither is required. USDA MyPlate’s meal-planning guidance also recommends planning around foods on hand, family preferences, and good buys.
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4. Track local prices without assuming every food moves alike
Use national price statistics for context, then make shopping decisions using prices at stores you actually use. A national index measures average movement, not the price of a particular item in your neighborhood. USDA ERS notes that price changes vary by food category and geography, and retail prices reflect more than farm commodity costs. Its interactive visualization compares food-price changes by category, region, and other selected categories. Explore USDA ERS’s Food Price Environment visualization.
For a short list of frequently purchased staples, note the product, package size, and unit price. Compare like with like: a lower shelf price may still mean a higher cost per ounce or pound if the package is smaller. You do not need to track every item; a handful of regular purchases can reveal whether your own local prices are changing.
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Category changes can diverge sharply. In August 2026, egg prices rose 3.5% from July but were 23.0% below August 2025. A national food-at-home average or broad inflation adjustment cannot capture that contrast for every item. The USDA ERS August observations and outlook are reported in its Food Price Outlook summary.
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USDA ERS’s September 2026 forecast projected food-at-home prices to rise 2.4% over calendar 2026, with a forecast interval of 1.8% to 3.0%. For calendar 2027, it projected 1.8%, with a much wider interval of -5.0% to 9.2%. These are forecasts, not observed results or promises: ERS compares average prices across all months of one year with the average across all months of the prior year, and the interval communicates uncertainty. Do not add the forecast mechanically to every item or treat it as a prediction of your total grocery bill.
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5. Review actual spending and adjust the next period
At the end of each week or month, compare what you spent with your target. If you were over or under, check what drove the difference: price changes, quantities, substitutions, one-off purchases, or changing household needs. Then decide whether to adjust the next target, the meal plan, or the shopping list.
Make changes based on your records and local prices. If a regular item has become more expensive, consider a suitable substitute, a different meal, or a different store only if the change works for your household. If the budget is repeatedly too low for the foods and needs you have, revise the target to a realistic amount rather than relying on an inflation statistic that may not match your basket. USDA updates Food Plan cost levels monthly, so the official reference can be checked periodically alongside your own spending.
A practical recurring checklist
- Keep the budget period and grocery definition consistent.
- Use receipts or account history to establish and refresh your household baseline.
- Check food on hand before planning meals; list only what the plan requires.
- Compare unit prices for a short set of regular purchases and allow for flexible substitutions.
- Review spending at the end of each period and adjust the next one when prices, needs, or buying patterns change.
USDA’s national price figures are useful context, but your household’s receipts and local shelf prices are the evidence to use when setting its grocery limit.
Quick Recap
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