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Build a rolling 13-week cash forecast from the bank balance you actually have, put every receipt and payment in the week it is likely to clear, and extend the same model monthly through your financial year. During a slowdown, run a base case, a downside case and a severe case that combine weaker sales, slower collections and fixed commitments. The first week in which your closing cash falls below its minimum buffer is the point at which to act—not the date an invoice becomes overdue.
What a cash-flow forecast shows
A cash-flow forecast is a time-phased plan of bank movements. It answers a practical question: after expected money in and money out, how much cash will be available on each future date?
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That is different from an accrual profit-and-loss forecast. A sale belongs in the profit-and-loss account when it is earned, but it belongs in the cash forecast when the customer is expected to pay. A supplier bill, payroll run, VAT payment or loan principal instalment belongs in the forecast when cash will leave the account.
Use this calculation for every period:
Closing cash = opening cash + receipts cleared − payments cleared.
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Roll each period’s closing cash into the next period’s opening cash. Business.gov.uk’s guidance is to include all outgoing spend, incoming revenue and expected payment dates. In a slowdown, the payment date assumption is usually more important than the invoice value.
Use two linked forecast horizons
A single horizon rarely does both jobs well. Use a detailed weekly view for immediate liquidity and a monthly view for the whole financial year.
| View | Granularity and horizon | What it catches | How to use it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly liquidity view | One column per week, rolling 13 weeks | Payroll, supplier runs, debt service, late customer receipts and the first buffer breach | Refresh at least weekly; replace estimates with confirmed bank movements, invoices or payment promises |
| Monthly year view | One column per month through the financial year | Annual insurance, loan principal, tax, VAT quarters, rent changes and other lumpy payments | Keep the same assumptions and roll totals from the weekly model where detail is available |
The 13-week cadence is a practical operating recommendation, not a UK statutory requirement. The British Business Bank advises businesses facing uncertainty to maintain a full picture of their finances and be ready to change course.
Do not make the monthly sheet a separate set of guesses. The weekly model should feed the near-term months; the monthly model should expose payments that are outside the 13-week window.
Set up the forecast workbook
Put dates across columns and cash categories down rows. Keep one clearly labelled assumption cell or note beside each material estimate. A spreadsheet, accounting-system report or forecasting workbook can work; the important features are weekly detail, scenario control, VAT-date handling, debtor ageing, collaboration, an audit trail and exportability.
Start with a reconciled opening balance
- List every business bank account, card settlement account and genuinely available cash account.
- Reconcile the opening figure to the latest bank statements. Do not use an unreconciled accounting-system balance.
- Exclude restricted cash, client money, uncleared card batches and funds that cannot be used for the bills being forecast.
- Record the date and the person who performed the reconciliation.
If the opening balance is wrong, every later week is wrong by the same amount. A reconciliation is therefore a control, not an administrative extra.
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Enter customer receipts by likely clearing date
Split receipts by customer, contract, channel or another grouping that helps you test collection risk. For each item, record the invoice or order value, expected clearing date, payment terms, probability of collection and the assumption behind the date.
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- Use the debtor ledger for invoiced work and an order book for contracted work that is not yet invoiced.
- Separate recurring direct debits, card settlements, staged project payments and one-off receipts.
- Apply a late-payment assumption to customers that have a history of paying beyond terms. Move the cash date, rather than simply reducing revenue, when the customer is still expected to pay.
- Remove cancelled orders and invoices in dispute from the base case unless there is evidence they will clear.
Do not put an invoice into this row merely because it has been raised. Put it in the period in which money is likely to reach the bank.
Include only credible other inflows
Other inflows can include a confirmed grant, an asset sale with an agreed completion date or committed borrowing with documented drawdown terms. Enter the expected receipt date and evidence for each.
Never count an application, an unapproved facility, a hoped-for grant or an uncommitted shareholder injection as available cash. Show those possibilities in a separate “not committed” note so a decision-maker can see the potential upside without relying on it to pay a bill.
List committed outflows in cash order
Use separate rows so that an action can be taken against a specific cost. Include:
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- PAYE and National Insurance payments on the dates due to HMRC.
- Rent, business rates, utilities, insurance and other premises costs.
- Supplier invoices, recurring direct debits, leases and critical service contracts.
- Loan interest and principal, overdraft charges and other finance payments.
- VAT and other taxes on the actual payment dates for the business’s scheme.
- Discretionary spending such as hiring, marketing, travel, training and non-essential subscriptions.
- Stock purchases and capital expenditure, distinguishing deposits from final balances.
Mark each outflow as committed, contractual but negotiable, or discretionary. That classification makes the response plan faster when a scenario turns negative.
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Calculate closing cash and test the buffer
After total receipts and total payments, calculate closing cash for each week and month. Add a separate minimum-cash-buffer row. The buffer should reflect the cash needed to protect payroll, essential suppliers, tax and a reasonable contingency; it is a management policy, not a universal statutory amount.
Add a simple test such as IF(closing_cash < minimum_buffer,"BREACH","OK"). Highlight the first breach week, the lowest balance and the payment or assumption that causes the change. Keep the test visible in every scenario.
Build assumptions from evidence
During a slowdown, assumptions drive the result. Write the assumption beside the number, assign an owner and set a review date. A forecast without ownership tends to retain stale optimism.
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| Assumption | Evidence to use | Review trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Sales volume | Signed orders, qualified pipeline and recent conversion rates | New order intake falls below the agreed weekly threshold |
| Average order value | Recent invoices by product or service line | Discounting or mix changes reduce realised value |
| Debtor days and late receipts | Aged debtor report, customer payment history and disputes | A key customer misses its promised date |
| Supplier terms and input costs | Current statements, renewal notices and supplier quotations | A supplier shortens terms or raises prices |
| Payroll | Payroll schedule, planned hires, leavers and pay awards | Headcount or pay date changes |
| VAT and tax dates | HMRC online account and the business’s VAT/tax scheme | A return, payment-on-account or scheme treatment changes |
| Discretionary spend | Approved purchase orders and departmental budgets | A spend is paused, brought forward or re-approved |
Replace estimates with invoices, bank confirmations or written customer and supplier commitments as soon as they exist. Record the reason for every material variance between forecast and actual cash.
Run three slowdown scenarios
Start with a base case built from the order book and debtor ledger. Then make the downside case reflect several pressures at once; a slowdown rarely affects only sales. The severe case combines the most credible shocks rather than inventing an impossible catastrophe.
| Scenario | Sales and receipts | Costs and commitments | Decision question |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Signed work and a cautious conversion of near-term opportunities; normal customer collection pattern | Known payroll, supplier, finance, VAT and tax dates; approved discretionary spend | Can the business meet committed payments if current evidence holds? |
| Downside | Lower new sales, reduced average order value and slower collections | Supplier-price pressure and no relief on fixed commitments; discretionary spend reviewed | Which week first falls below the buffer, and what action prevents it? |
| Severe | The downside sales and collection assumptions together, including late receipts from important debtors | Higher input costs, unchanged payroll and tax dates, and delayed ability to cut fixed costs | What is the earliest cash gap and which external conversation must begin now? |
For each scenario, show sales volume, average order value, debtor days, late receipts, supplier terms, input costs, payroll, VAT and tax dates, discretionary spend and the first buffer-breach week. Give every assumption an owner and a review date. A scenario is useful only if someone is responsible for updating it.
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Build the forecast step by step
- Choose the cut-off date. Reconcile all bank accounts to that date and record uncleared items separately.
- Create the 13 weekly columns. Use week-ending dates consistently, and add monthly columns through the financial year on a second view.
- Enter committed receipts. Load customer receipts from the debtor ledger and contracts using expected clearing dates, not invoice dates.
- Add credible other inflows. Include only confirmed grants, agreed asset sales or committed borrowing with evidence and a drawdown date.
- Load committed payments. Pull payroll, PAYE/NIC, rent, utilities, suppliers, leases, loan interest, principal, VAT and other taxes into their cash periods.
- Add discretionary and lumpy spending. Include marketing, hiring, travel, stock-building, capital expenditure, annual insurance and other irregular bills. Flag what can be postponed.
- Calculate totals. Sum receipts, sum payments, calculate closing cash and roll that figure into the next period’s opening cash.
- Set the buffer test. Compare every closing balance with the approved minimum buffer and identify the first breach.
- Duplicate the assumptions for downside and severe cases. Change only documented drivers so the effect of each shock is visible.
- Review with owners. Have the person responsible for sales, collections, payroll, procurement and tax confirm the dates and assumptions.
- Publish an action list. For each breach, name the action, owner, amount, expected cash date and decision deadline.
Put VAT and tax on the dates cash leaves
For most UK VAT-registered businesses, HMRC says a VAT return and payment are generally due one calendar month and seven days after the accounting period ends. The payment must have cleared HMRC’s account by the deadline, not merely have been initiated. Enter the outflow on the business’s actual online-account deadline.
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- Put the VAT payment in the week of the HMRC deadline, even if the sales occurred months earlier.
- Reserve cash for payroll taxes separately from net wages; a profitable month can still have a tax-date cash squeeze.
- Enter annual or quarterly bills in full when they are due unless an agreed instalment schedule is documented.
- Check HMRC’s online account before each update and replace provisional dates with the displayed liability and deadline.
What to do when the forecast shows a shortfall
Act when the forecast first shows a buffer breach, not after a payment is missed. Rank actions by speed and reversibility so that temporary measures come before decisions that permanently damage capacity.
1. Stop or defer discretionary cash
Pause non-essential hiring, marketing, travel, stock-building, capital purchases and other spending that has not become contractually committed. Record the cash date released by each decision; a percentage reduction in a budget is not useful unless it changes a bank movement.
2. Accelerate customer cash
Invoice immediately when work is complete, correct disputed invoices, send statements and ask customers for deposits or staged billing on new work. Confirm the promised clearing date in writing and move the receipt in the forecast only when the evidence supports it.
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Ask critical suppliers for revised dates, instalments or temporary terms before the due date. Prioritise suppliers that can stop your ability to trade, and document every agreement. Do not silently miss a payment: that can remove options and damage supply.
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4. Prepare an evidence-backed funding or tax conversation
If the gap remains, prepare a short pack containing the latest forecast, the assumptions behind each scenario, aged debtors, committed payments and the specific amount and timing of help requested. Contact lenders, HMRC or suppliers while there is still time to agree a plan; an unconfirmed facility or relief must not be counted as cash until it is approved and available.
5. Protect essential operations
Keep payroll, legally required payments, critical utilities, core suppliers and agreed finance obligations visible as protected commitments. If those cannot be met even after reversible steps, obtain professional restructuring or insolvency advice promptly rather than using customer or tax money to cover unrelated bills.
Why late payment deserves its own scenario
Late-paying customers can create a cash crisis even when reported sales remain stable. The British Business Bank identifies ready cash for suppliers and salaries as vital working capital and points to weak control of customer and supplier payment terms as a working-capital problem.
The Department for Business and Trade’s 2026 overview of the Commercial Payments Bill says: “The bill will tackle late payments between businesses and improve the flow of cash through supply chains.” The same government overview reports a cost of £11 billion per year to the UK economy and 38 UK businesses every day in reported closures associated with late payments. These are government-reported claims; check the bill’s current legislative status before relying on any proposed measure.
In your model, test a late-payment shock by moving selected receipts into later weeks while leaving payroll, suppliers and tax dates unchanged. That exposes the working-capital effect more clearly than reducing annual sales alone.
Controls that keep the forecast trustworthy
- Weekly bank reconciliation: compare every actual bank movement with the relevant forecast row and update the opening balance.
- Estimate replacement: replace assumed dates with invoices, remittance advice, payment confirmations or HMRC figures as they arrive.
- Variance log: record the amount, cause, owner and whether the variance is one-off or recurring.
- Cash/accrual separation: keep the cash date visible even when the accounting system recognises revenue or cost in another period.
- Scenario discipline: change named assumptions rather than overwriting the base case; preserve the prior version so decisions can be audited.
- No double counting: ensure a receipt is not included both in a customer row and in a funding or other-inflow row.
- No unconfirmed liquidity: do not treat unapproved borrowing, grants or reliefs as available cash.
Set a recurring review meeting with a fixed agenda: bank reconciliation, receipts due in the next two weeks, committed payments, first buffer breach, new variances and actions with owners. The cadence matters because a 13-week forecast becomes stale quickly when conditions are changing.
Choose a format that supports decisions
The right format is the one that preserves timing, scenarios and an audit trail without making updates too slow. Compare options against the same requirements rather than choosing on appearance.
| Capability | Spreadsheet | Accounting-system or forecasting workbook | What to verify |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly versus monthly granularity | Usually flexible if dates and formulas are designed carefully | May be built in or require a forecasting module | Can the same assumptions feed a rolling 13 weeks and a financial-year view? |
| Scenario support | Easy to duplicate, but version control can fail | May provide controlled scenario copies | Can base, downside and severe assumptions be changed without overwriting history? |
| VAT and tax-date handling | Manual entry and review required | May import liabilities, but dates still need checking | Does it use the actual HMRC deadline for the business’s scheme? |
| Debtor ageing inputs | Can be pasted or linked from an aged-debtor report | May connect directly to invoices and receipts | Can late-payment assumptions be applied by customer or channel? |
| Collaboration and audit trail | Needs controlled access, named owners and version naming | Often provides permissions and change history | Can another person see who changed a date and why? |
| Exportability | Generally strong | Check export formats and data ownership | Can you produce a lender-, adviser- or board-ready file? |
| Total cost | Low direct cost, but staff time can be high | Subscription, implementation or module costs may apply | Compare the cost of reliable updates with the cost of a missed payment |
A practical weekly review checklist
- Have all bank accounts been reconciled to the cut-off date?
- Which customer receipts are due before the next payroll and tax dates, and which have become late?
- Have any suppliers changed terms, prices or collection dates?
- Are VAT, PAYE/NIC and other HMRC payments entered on the dates funds must clear?
- What is the lowest closing cash in the next 13 weeks?
- What is the first week below the minimum buffer in each scenario?
- Which action releases cash fastest, who owns it and what evidence will confirm success?
- Has every material forecast-versus-actual variance been explained?
A forecast earns its place when it changes a decision early: sending an invoice today, postponing a purchase, agreeing a supplier date or starting a funding conversation before the account is empty. Keep the weekly view live, let the monthly view expose lumpy obligations, and make every assumption traceable to evidence.
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