Assess reliability and safety as separate, evidence-based questions: check whether the system meets clearly defined performance requirements under stated conditions, and whether hazards have been identified, reduced, and accepted by the proper authority across the system’s lifecycle. A successful demonstration alone cannot establish either conclusion.
Reliability and safety answer different questions
Reliability concerns whether a system performs its required functions under specified conditions. Safety concerns the risks of harm arising from hazards during design, testing, production, use, and disposal. They can overlap—for example, a component failure may create a hazard—but success on one measure does not prove success on the other.
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| Assessment | Core question | Evidence to examine |
|---|---|---|
| Reliability | Does the system perform its specified functions consistently in the conditions for which it is intended? | Measurable requirements, failure records, reliability analyses, test results, and evidence that design changes address observed problems. |
| Safety | Have hazards been eliminated where feasible, and have remaining risks been controlled and accepted by the authorized decision-maker? | Hazard analyses, mitigation and verification records, and documented residual-risk decisions. |
There is no universal reliability percentage or safety threshold established by the sources cited here for every missile type. An assessment must be tied to the actual system, requirements, operating conditions, and acceptance criteria.
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Before weighing test results, specify the function or mission profile behind the reliability claim, the conditions under which performance is expected, and which lifecycle hazards the safety claim covers. Require measurable requirements and stated acceptance criteria. Without a denominator, defined conditions, or an identifiable evidence source, claims such as “highly reliable” are difficult to compare or verify.
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Requirements also need to be realistic. In its 2020 review, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) identified seven recurring reliability practices among commercial companies it examined, including early and sustained reliability-engineering involvement, realistic requirements, attention to suppliers, and reliability engineering throughout design. GAO found that seven selected Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs did not consistently follow those practices. It reported that the programs often prioritized schedule and cost, and that their systems generally were not as reliable as promised. The seven-program finding describes those selected programs, not all DoD systems. Read GAO-20-151.
Examine how reliability is engineered and demonstrated
Trace engineering work from requirements to design changes
Look for evidence that reliability engineers were involved early and remained engaged, that suppliers had clear reliability responsibilities, and that failures were recorded, analyzed, and connected to corrective design decisions. A reliability growth plan should connect the intended improvement process to the test strategy. The Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation’s TEMP Guidebook 3.1 page lists a Reliability Growth Plan appendix alongside test-and-evaluation strategy and implementation material.
Read test results with their conditions and limitations
A test count or success rate means little on its own. Ask how the test conditions represent the stated requirements, which failures occurred, whether any results were excluded and why, and how the evidence supports the claimed reliability level. The program should explain the statistical basis and uncertainty behind its conclusion; do not infer a pass mark from a percentage without the applicable requirement and rationale.
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- Does the evidence cover the functions and conditions named in the claim?
- Are failures, anomalies, exclusions, and corrective actions documented?
- Do later tests show whether changes resolved the problems they were intended to address?
- Is the evidence sufficient for the required reliability level, with its uncertainty explained?
Review safety as a lifecycle risk-management process
The Defense Logistics Agency’s ASSIST catalog lists MIL-STD-882, Revision E Change 1 as active. The listed revision is dated September 27, 2023. The catalog describes the standard’s approach as eliminating hazards where possible and minimizing risks where hazards cannot be eliminated. Its scope covers hardware and software through design, development, test, production, use, and disposal.
Follow hazards through analysis, mitigation, and verification
Ask for the hazard analyses and records showing what was done in response. Where feasible, hazards should be eliminated through design; where they remain, the evidence should identify controls and show that those controls were verified. A control that exists on paper but has not been shown to work is not the same as verified mitigation.
Check who accepted any remaining risk
For hazards that cannot be eliminated, request the documented residual-risk decision and the identity or role of the authority that accepted it under the applicable rules. The ASSIST catalog says DoD instructions define risk-acceptance authorities; it does not determine whether the risk of any particular system is acceptable. The decision must be judged in the system’s actual context, not inferred from compliance with a standard.
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Judge whether testing can support the claim
Check who shaped the test strategy and how it evolves
Testers should have a meaningful role early enough to influence acquisition and evaluation strategy. Look for iterative testing, continuing user feedback, and clear plans for using digital twins or digital threads where applicable. If models or linked digital records are used, ask what evidence validates them for the specific questions they are intended to answer.
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GAO’s report published December 11, 2025, found that these leading practices were not fully reflected in DoD-wide policies and selected program documents, particularly in major capability and middle-tier acquisition pathways. GAO made 13 recommendations. Its report page showed differing agency positions and policy-update plans as of March 2026, with planned work extending into 2026, 2027, and 2028. Those are agency plans reported by GAO, not proof that the reforms have been completed. Read GAO-26-107009.
Distinguish developmental tests from operational evaluation
Developmental testing can verify requirements and expose design problems; it is not automatically evidence of operational suitability or effectiveness under realistic use conditions. Check whether the evaluation is independent where required, whether conditions are representative of the intended use, and whether unresolved deficiencies have owners and retest plans. A successful demonstration is a data point, not a complete assessment.
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Compare alternatives on common evidence
If there are multiple genuine options, compare them against the same mission profile, operating conditions, and evidence standards. This is a practical comparison framework, not a standardized scorecard or universal ranking.
| Comparison axis | What to compare |
|---|---|
| Reliability | Requirements, demonstrated growth, failures, and how well test conditions support the claims. |
| Safety | Hazard severity, mitigation, verification, and documented residual-risk decisions. |
| Maturity | Technology maturity and the maturity of interfaces between system elements. |
| Testing | Representativeness, independence, iterative coverage, and treatment of deficiencies. |
| Support burden | Maintainability and the support needed to sustain the system. |
| Limitations | Known constraints, unresolved issues, and the evidence still needed to address them. |
What a defensible assessment should contain
A reader or reviewer should be able to trace each conclusion to records and decisions, rather than relying on a headline claim. Request the following material for the system being assessed:
- The applicable requirements, operating assumptions, and acceptance criteria.
- Reliability plans, failure and anomaly records, corrective actions, and test evidence with conditions and limitations.
- Lifecycle hazard analyses, mitigation verification, and residual-risk acceptance records.
- Developmental and operational test findings, including unresolved deficiencies and planned retests.
- Independent assessments and the authorized decisions that govern acceptance or deployment.
If these records are unavailable, incomplete, or not tied to the claim, the responsible conclusion is that the evidence is insufficient to establish reliability or safety—not that the system has passed or failed. The cited sources describe acquisition practices, a safety standard, and policy findings; they do not provide a named missile’s test record or a system-specific verdict.
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