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A large order book can support visibility, but it is not automatically guaranteed revenue or profit. Likewise, a reported earnings number can look strong while receivables, contract assets or debt absorb cash. The method below is designed for a specific issuer using its latest annual and quarterly filings; the cited figures are company-specific fiscal-2025 examples, not sector benchmarks.
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Start with the business model, not the multiple
Before calculating a price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-cash-flow ratio, describe how the company earns money. Separate products, software subscriptions, support, consulting, managed services and one-time projects wherever the filing provides that detail. Each category has a different revenue duration, margin profile, billing pattern and cancellation risk.
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Identify the accounting mechanics
- Contract assets: the company has performed before an invoicing or other contingency is satisfied. The balance can rise when work is ahead of billings.
- Contract liabilities or deferred revenue: the customer has paid, or been billed, before the company has delivered the related service. The balance can provide future revenue recognition but is not the same as cash profit.
- Point-in-time revenue: recognition depends on delivery or acceptance of a specific item.
- Over-time revenue: recognition follows progress toward satisfying a performance obligation.
Gartner’s 2025 Form 10-K illustrates why this distinction matters: its disclosures discuss contract assets when performance precedes satisfaction of a contingency and contract liabilities when customer prepayments precede performance. Use the issuer’s own policy rather than assuming every IT company recognizes similar contracts in the same way.
Test whether earnings are turning into cash
Net income is an accounting result; operating cash flow shows how much cash the operating business generated after working-capital movements. Neither measure is sufficient by itself. Compare them over several years and investigate the reasons for any persistent gap.
Build a multi-year earnings bridge
- Record revenue growth, gross margin, operating margin and net income for at least three fiscal years, using the same company-defined periods.
- Place operating cash flow beside net income for each year.
- Track accounts receivable, contract assets, deferred or unearned revenue, capital spending and debt.
- Read the cash-flow and working-capital discussion for the stated causes of year-to-year changes.
- Separate recurring operating effects from one-time collections, acquisitions, restructuring payments or other unusual items disclosed by the company.
A widening difference between net income and operating cash flow is a prompt for explanation, not proof of manipulation. Receivables can rise because customers have not yet paid; contract assets can rise because performance preceded billing; deferred revenue can make cash arrive before revenue. Subscription businesses can therefore show favorable cash timing even when reported revenue is spread across future periods. Conversely, a temporary collection surge can make one year’s cash flow look stronger than its underlying earnings.
Questions to ask about working capital
- Are receivables growing faster than revenue, and does management attribute the change to contract timing, customer mix or collection issues?
- Are contract assets increasing because milestones have been performed but not yet billed?
- Is deferred revenue increasing because customers paid in advance, and when will that balance be recognized as revenue?
- Do capital expenditures consume a meaningful share of operating cash, particularly for infrastructure or data-center operations?
- Does debt require cash interest or principal payments that are not visible in operating earnings?
- Are customer deposits, tax payments or other working-capital movements making cash conversion unusually high or low in one period?
Fortinet’s filing, for example, discusses revenue, deferred revenue, remaining performance obligations and operating-cash-flow-related balances separately. The useful analysis is the connection among those disclosures, not a single earnings score.
Define what “order book” actually means
“Backlog,” “order book” and “remaining performance obligations” (RPO) are labels, not standardized promises. Before comparing two totals, copy the issuer’s definition and identify what is included, excluded and conditional.
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| Term or disclosure | What it can represent | Checks required before comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Backlog | Contracted work not yet delivered; the company may include awarded options, renewals or future delivery orders. | Whether options are assumed, whether the work is funded, cancellation rights, contract duration and expected delivery dates. |
| Funded backlog | The portion supported by appropriated or otherwise committed customer funding. | Funding status, remaining appropriations, termination provisions and the period over which delivery is expected. |
| Remaining performance obligations (RPO) | Contracted revenue for performance obligations that have not yet been satisfied under the company’s revenue-accounting policy. | ASC 606 practical expedients, contracts of one year or less, variable consideration, renewal terms and the schedule for recognition. |
| Unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied obligations | Longer-duration obligations for which the company still owes goods or services. | Original contract duration, exclusions, expected recognition period and exposure to customer changes or termination. |
Backlog can contain conditional work
Telos distinguishes total backlog from funded backlog. Its total backlog can include future delivery orders and option renewals, while funded backlog refers to amounts funded by the procuring agency. Telos says it generally assumes option-year renewals will be exercised and warns: “We also believe that it is difficult to predict future revenue solely based on analysis of backlog.” That government-contract example does not automatically describe a commercial software vendor, but it demonstrates why the funding basis and option assumptions must be stated.
Even awarded work can be delayed, modified, terminated or delivered at a margin below the company’s historical level. A headline total therefore measures potential future activity, not guaranteed revenue, cash collection or profit.
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RPO has accounting exclusions
ASC 606 disclosures can omit certain obligations under practical expedients. Gartner reported $6.4 billion of unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied obligations under contracts longer than one year as of December 31, 2025. The duration qualifier matters: contracts with original terms of one year or less may be excluded from an RPO disclosure.
Oracle reported $137.8 billion of RPO as of May 31, 2025 and provided its own expected-recognition schedule. Its filing notes that seasonality, large contract bookings, foreign-exchange movements and exclusions affect the reported balance. A large RPO number can therefore reflect a particular booking pattern or currency environment rather than a permanent change in demand.
Rimini Street reported $652.9 million of RPO at year-end 2025, while Fortinet reported $7.18 billion as of December 31, 2025. Those figures cannot be ranked by quality or attractiveness without aligning company size, contract scope, duration, recognition rules and disclosure exclusions.
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Measure conversion instead of admiring the balance
The investment question is how much of the disclosed balance will become revenue, when, and at what margin. Treat the reported amount as a point-in-time contractual disclosure rather than a forecast.
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Construct a conversion schedule
- Capture the opening and closing backlog or RPO balance using the same definition.
- Record additions, recognized revenue and disclosed cancellations or reductions.
- Separate the amount expected to be recognized within 12 months from the amount expected later.
- Compare the company’s stated schedule with its historic conversion: how much of prior balances became revenue on time?
- Identify assumptions about renewals, options, appropriations, customer acceptance, implementation milestones or variable consideration.
- Check whether a small number of customers or contracts represent a large share of the balance.
A useful internal roll-forward is opening obligations plus new contracted work, less revenue recognized and disclosed cancellations or adjustments, equaling the closing balance. The filing may not provide every component, but the exercise reveals which movements are observable and which require management assumptions.
Look for concentration and termination risk
- Customer concentration can make a large balance dependent on one renewal decision or procurement program.
- Termination-for-convenience clauses can reduce the practical firmness of an award.
- Option years and renewal assumptions extend visibility but are not the same as irrevocable orders.
- Government work may depend on future appropriations or funding releases.
- Long implementation periods can delay recognition even when the contract is signed.
- Fixed-price projects can convert backlog into revenue while producing disappointing margins if costs rise.
Ask management what portion is expected within a year, what portion is farther out and what would cause the schedule to change. A point-in-time RPO balance is not a guarantee of bookings, delivery, collections or margin.
Use valuation measures that fit the economics
There is no universal “right” multiple for an IT company. A recurring software provider, a labor-intensive consultancy and a hardware or infrastructure vendor can report similar earnings while carrying very different growth, margins, capital needs and contract risk.
Choose the denominator deliberately
- Enterprise value to operating earnings: useful when comparing companies with different debt levels, provided operating earnings are defined consistently and unusual items are treated alike.
- Enterprise value to operating cash flow or free cash flow: useful when cash conversion and capital spending are central to the investment case. State whether free cash flow deducts capital expenditures and how acquisitions or restructuring payments are handled.
- Equity value to net income: relevant to shareholders, but sensitive to interest expense, tax rates, share counts and non-operating items.
Use the same share-price date, fiscal period, currency treatment, debt definition and adjustments for every company in a comparison. Do not mix a trailing denominator for one issuer with a forward estimate for another, or compare reported cash flow for a business with heavy capital spending against a cash-light peer without explaining the difference.
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Align the operating characteristics
Before concluding that one company is cheap or expensive, compare:
- Revenue growth and the durability of that growth.
- Gross and operating margins, including whether services work is replacing higher-margin software or support.
- Recurring-revenue share and the length of customer commitments.
- Operating-cash-flow conversion and the direction of working capital.
- Net debt, interest burden and liquidity.
- Customer concentration, contract termination rights and exposure to funding decisions.
- Backlog or RPO timing, including the share expected within 12 months.
The reviewed filings support this framework but do not establish a sector-wide valuation multiple. A fair-value estimate also requires a current market price and a company-specific forecast; neither can be inferred from an order-book total alone.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.When comparing two IT companies, use the same axes
| Axis | What to align or compare | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Business mix | Product, subscription and support, services, consulting and project work. | Revenue duration, margins and payment patterns differ. |
| Earnings quality | Revenue growth, margins, net income versus operating cash flow and working-capital movements. | Shows whether accounting earnings are converting into cash. |
| Order-book definition | Backlog versus RPO; funded versus unfunded amounts; included options and cancelability. | Headline totals can cover different contractual scopes. |
| Timing and conversion | Expected recognition by period, historic realization, renewal and award assumptions. | Near-term firm work has different value from distant or conditional work. |
| Valuation basis | Enterprise or equity value; earnings or cash-flow denominator; period and adjustments. | Multiples mislead when capital structures or definitions differ. |
| Risk and balance sheet | Customer concentration, debt, liquidity, contract risk and cash collection. | These factors affect durability and equity risk. |
A practical filing-review workflow
- Start with the latest annual report. Note the fiscal year-end, reporting currency, segments and principal products or services.
- Read revenue recognition. Mark point-in-time and over-time obligations, contract assets, contract liabilities and billing terms.
- Extract three years of operating data. Record revenue, gross profit, operating income, net income, operating cash flow and capital spending.
- Reconcile cash conversion. Explain material changes in receivables, contract assets, deferred revenue, taxes, payables and other working capital from the company’s disclosures.
- Find the backlog or RPO note. Copy the definition, date, duration limits, exclusions and expected-recognition schedule.
- Separate firm from conditional amounts. Identify funded work, options, renewals, variable consideration and termination rights.
- Test historic conversion. Compare prior reported balances with revenue recognized in subsequent periods, using consistent definitions where available.
- Check concentration. Look for major customers, contracts, geographies or government programs that could dominate the balance.
- Calculate valuation consistently. Use a common market date, period, currency and denominator for the issuer and its peers.
- Stress the thesis. Consider slower renewals, delayed implementation, weaker collections, margin pressure, higher interest costs and a lower conversion rate.
Common analytical mistakes and their fixes
Treating net income as cash
Mistake: assuming a profitable year automatically produced spendable cash.
Fix: compare net income with operating cash flow and explain receivables, contract assets, deferred revenue, capital spending and debt movements.
Adding backlog totals from different definitions
Mistake: ranking companies by a number called backlog or RPO without reading the footnote.
Fix: align funding status, options, duration, cancellation rights, variable consideration and accounting exclusions.
Calling RPO a sales forecast
Mistake: treating the closing RPO balance as guaranteed future revenue.
Fix: use the recognition schedule, historic conversion and contract-risk disclosures, and distinguish revenue timing from margin and cash collection.
Using a single “industry multiple”
Mistake: applying one earnings or cash-flow multiple to every IT business.
Fix: match the denominator to the business model and compare growth, margins, recurring revenue, leverage, cash conversion and risk.
Ignoring the date and currency
Mistake: comparing a December 31 balance with a May 31 balance as though they were measured on the same day, or ignoring foreign-exchange effects.
Fix: retain each issuer’s fiscal date and currency, then normalize only with a stated method.
What a defensible conclusion looks like
A strong assessment states four separate judgments. First, it explains whether reported earnings are supported by operating cash flow and sustainable working-capital behavior. Second, it defines the order-book measure and identifies firm, funded and conditional components. Third, it estimates the timing and reliability of conversion rather than treating the headline balance as a promise. Fourth, it applies a valuation denominator that matches the company’s growth, margins, recurring-revenue mix, leverage and risks.
For a named issuer, refresh the analysis with its latest annual and quarterly filings, check subsequent events and recalculate market-based measures on one common date. The conclusion should be conditional—what must remain true for earnings, cash conversion and order-book realization to support the valuation—rather than a verdict based on one multiple or one backlog figure.
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