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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteMelting Antarctic ice raises global mean sea level when ice that was resting on land flows into the ocean. Floating ice shelves already displace seawater, so their melt has little direct effect on sea level; however, shelves can hold back grounded ice, and their thinning or loss can speed its flow into the ocean. The result is a measurable contribution to rising seas, but not the same amount of rise at every coast.
How Antarctic ice loss adds water to the ocean
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is land-based, or grounded, ice. Its contribution to sea level depends on its mass balance: snowfall adds mass, while surface melting and ice flowing out into the ocean remove it. When grounded ice is lost to the ocean, global mean sea level rises; snowfall can partly offset that loss. The IPCC describes this balance in its sea-level change FAQ.
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Ice shelves are different. They are floating extensions of the ice sheet and already displace seawater, so melting them does not directly raise sea level by an equivalent amount. But shelves can buttress the grounded ice behind them. If a shelf thins or disappears, grounded ice may flow into the ocean faster, increasing sea-level rise indirectly.
How much has Antarctica contributed so far?
The IPCC estimated that Antarctica lost 2,670 ± 530 gigatonnes of ice and contributed 7.4 ± 1.5 millimetres to global mean sea-level rise over 1992–2020. These figures describe the Antarctic contribution over that observation period, not the total rise in sea level.
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For context, the IPCC assessed that global mean sea level rose 0.20 metres (0.15–0.25 metres) over 1901–2018, with a rate of 3.7 millimetres per year (3.2–4.2) during 2006–2018. That total reflects multiple causes, not Antarctica alone. The IPCC also found that Antarctic mass loss in 2007–2016 was three times the loss in 1997–2006; this comparison between historical periods is not an annual rate for today.
Will sea level rise equally everywhere?
No. Global mean sea level is an average, not a forecast for every shoreline. The IPCC assessed regional departures of about ±30% around the global mean rise due to land-ice loss and changes in ocean warming and circulation. Local relative sea level also depends on whether the land itself is rising or sinking. A global mean figure therefore cannot be used on its own as a site-specific coastal projection.
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- Polar Ice Melting in Plush Form: This Thunderheads special product shows how melting global ice at the poles and in mountains is accelerating due to climate change. This adorable product is a serious reminder of how meltwater rivers and the loss of ice sheets impacts sea levels, ecosystems, animals, and people worldwide.
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In assessing local consequences, distinguish the global average from regional ocean response, the geographic pattern associated with land-ice loss, and vertical land motion. The cited IPCC assessments establish that regional differences matter, but do not provide a location-by-location forecast in these figures.
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What do projections say about 2100?
The IPCC’s 2019 projections give global mean sea-level rise by 2100 relative to 1986–2005 under two emissions scenarios:
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| Scenario | Global mean rise by 2100 | What the figure represents |
|---|---|---|
| RCP2.6 | 0.43 m (likely range 0.29–0.59 m) | Global mean projection under this scenario, relative to 1986–2005 |
| RCP8.5 | 0.84 m (likely range 0.61–1.10 m) | Global mean projection under this scenario, relative to 1986–2005 |
These are scenario-conditioned projections of total global mean rise, not precise predictions for a particular coast and not amounts attributable to Antarctica alone. Under RCP8.5, the Antarctic contribution could reach 28 centimetres at the upper end of the likely range by 2100, according to the same IPCC assessment.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the projections are uncertain
The range of possible outcomes reflects differences in emissions and in how the ocean and ice sheet respond, as well as limits in modelling ice-sheet processes. The IPCC identifies uncertainty in the timing of ice-shelf loss and the extent of ice-sheet instability. Limited observations and incomplete understanding of interactions among the atmosphere, ocean and ice sheet also affect estimates. Processes involving ice-shelf loss and instability could push Antarctica’s contribution above the likely range on century and longer timescales, but the IPCC assigns low confidence to that possibility.
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Sea level is expected to continue rising for centuries because of ocean heat uptake and ice-sheet mass loss, and to remain elevated for thousands of years. That long-term direction does not mean the rate of rise is fixed: it can change as the underlying processes change.
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What “melting Antarctic ice” does—and does not—mean
- Grounded ice loss raises sea level: land ice transferred to the ocean adds water to the global ocean.
- Snowfall can offset some loss: the net effect depends on the ice sheet’s overall mass balance.
- Floating shelf melt is not the same as land-ice loss: its direct sea-level effect is small, though shelf weakening can accelerate grounded-ice discharge.
- Sea level is not uniform: regional ocean changes and local land movement alter the outcome at a particular coast.
- A projection requires its scenario and baseline: 2100 figures are conditional estimates, not a single certain outcome.
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