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Climate change can slightly lengthen Earth’s day. A 2026 climate-model study projects that warming-driven shifts in atmospheric winds and pressure will increase the atmosphere’s angular momentum, balanced by a small slowing of the solid Earth’s rotation. The result is a modeled contribution—not evidence that climate change is the only or dominant cause of changes in day length.
How can the atmosphere change the length of a day?
Earth’s atmosphere has angular momentum: it comes from both the motion of air around the planet and the distribution of atmospheric mass. The solid Earth and atmosphere exchange angular momentum. In the accounting used by the study, when atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) increases, the solid Earth’s rotation slows correspondingly, making the length of day (LOD) slightly longer.
LOD means the time Earth takes to rotate once relative to the Sun-based day convention. The modeled change is tiny: the reported sensitivities are fractions of a millisecond per degree Celsius, not minutes or hours.
What did the 2026 study project?
Satpathy and coauthors analyzed simulations under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario, comparing the period through 2100 with an 1850–2014 baseline. They used large ensembles—100 members of CESM2-LE, 40 of ACCESS-ESM-1.5, and 50 of MIROC6—to separate the ensemble-mean externally forced signal from substantial variation among individual simulations. The study derives AAM from atmospheric winds and surface pressure. Read the study in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
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The authors estimate these ensemble-mean sensitivities for the AAM-driven LOD response:
| Climate model ensemble | Estimated LOD sensitivity |
|---|---|
| CESM2-LE | 0.0901 milliseconds per °C |
| ACCESS-ESM-1.5 | 0.1113 milliseconds per °C |
| MIROC6 | 0.1119 milliseconds per °C |
These are model-derived estimates published by Satpathy and coauthors in 2026 for the specified scenario and analysis; they are not direct measurements of a climate-caused change in Earth’s day.
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Which atmospheric changes drive the modeled effect?
Winds contribute most
The larger part of the projected AAM increase comes from atmospheric motion. The study associates it with warming-related circulation changes: the Hadley cell expands poleward, subtropical jets strengthen, upper-tropospheric westerlies strengthen, and tropical easterlies weaken. Together, these shifts alter how much angular momentum the moving atmosphere carries.
Pressure-related mass changes also contribute
The atmospheric mass component also increases, but its contribution is smaller. The authors associate it with stronger subtropical high-pressure systems around 30° north and south. A companion explanation discusses changes in mountain and friction torques, which affect momentum exchange between the atmosphere and solid Earth. The paper treats torque diagnostics as approximate support rather than an exact accounting: climate models do not fully represent subgrid-scale momentum exchange.
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How large is the projected signal?
For 2050–2099, the study projects an AAM-driven LOD contribution equivalent to an additional 10–18% of the lunar tidal-friction trend across its three models. That comparison provides a scale for this particular modeled contribution; it does not mean tides dominate all rotation changes on every timescale, nor does it describe all causes of LOD variability. The author’s explanation of the result notes that the atmospheric contribution depends on the emissions scenario and could be larger under higher-emissions pathways.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the projection does—and does not—show
- It is a scenario-based projection. The result comes from simulations under SSP3-7.0, not an observational attribution of a measured day-length trend to global warming.
- It isolates one contribution. The study estimates the atmospheric AAM effect separately from changes associated with ice-sheet melting, terrestrial water storage, and other barystatic processes.
- It does not remove natural variability. Individual ensemble members vary substantially; the ensemble mean is used to estimate the externally forced trend.
- It is not a complete rotation forecast. Core–mantle processes are expected to remain a dominant driver of future rotational variability, alongside other exchanges and mass redistribution.
Earth’s rotation responds to several processes operating on different timescales, including exchanges among the atmosphere, solid Earth, and core–mantle system, lunar tides, and redistribution of mass such as ice melt. The climate-driven atmospheric signal should be understood within that broader picture, not as a replacement for it. A review of lunar recession and length-of-day changes discusses this wider context.
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