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Squawka’s projected 2026/27 Championship table
Source and date: Squawka model projection published in August 2026. These are predicted finishing positions, not official standings or projected points.
| Position | Club | Projected outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | Champions; automatic promotion |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | Automatic promotion |
| 3 | Southampton | Play-offs |
| 4 | Wolves | Play-offs |
| 5 | Millwall | Play-offs |
| 6 | Burnley | Play-offs |
| 7 | Wrexham | — |
| 8 | Birmingham City | — |
| 9 | Norwich City | — |
| 10 | Derby County | — |
| 11 | Sheffield United | — |
| 12 | Bristol City | — |
| 13 | Stoke City | — |
| 14 | Swansea City | — |
| 15 | West Bromwich Albion | — |
| 16 | Queens Park Rangers | — |
| 17 | Watford | — |
| 18 | Preston North End | — |
| 19 | Cardiff City | — |
| 20 | Blackburn Rovers | — |
| 21 | Portsmouth | — |
| 22 | Lincoln City | Relegation |
| 23 | Charlton Athletic | Relegation |
| 24 | Bolton Wanderers | Relegation |
Full source: Squawka’s 2026/27 Championship projection.
Who is projected to win promotion?
West Ham are the clear favourite
Squawka ranks relegated Premier League club West Ham as champion. Its cited market snapshot had West Ham at 7/4 for the title, while the independent Statz model projects 92.3 points, about 101 goals and a title in roughly 70% of its simulations. Those are a bookmaker-market signal and model outputs, not guarantees.
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Middlesbrough, Southampton and Wolves lead the chase
Middlesbrough are Squawka’s second automatic promotion side. Southampton and Wolves occupy the next two play-off places, followed by the notable outsider pick of Millwall and then Burnley. A play-off place is not a promotion probability: the table shows where a club is forecast to finish, not whether it will win the play-offs.
Who is predicted to be relegated?
Squawka places Lincoln City, Charlton Athletic and Bolton Wanderers in the bottom three. All three entered the Championship as 2026/27 promoted clubs, indicating that the model heavily discounts the typical gap between League One and an established Championship or relegated Premier League squad.
Rank #2
Statz reaches the same bottom three, although it places Cardiff City and Preston North End immediately above them and describes the survival race as tightly compressed. A club’s predicted position is not the same as its probability of relegation, and small changes in team strength can reorder a crowded lower table.
Squawka versus Statz
The two published models agree on West Ham and the bottom three but differ in the promotion and play-off order:
| Question | Squawka | Statz |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | West Ham | West Ham |
| Second | Middlesbrough | Wolves |
| Third | Southampton | Southampton |
| Fourth | Wolves | Middlesbrough |
| Fifth | Millwall | Burnley |
| Sixth | Burnley | Sheffield United |
| Bottom three | Lincoln, Charlton, Bolton | Lincoln, Charlton, Bolton |
Squawka uses a transparent weighted ranking: 50% bet365 outright title odds, 30% previous-season points and 20% recorded net transfer spending from fee-known deals announced since 1 June, with fixed adjustments for relegated and promoted clubs. Statz says it simulates the season 10,000 times using team-strength ratings, then aggregates the outcomes. Neither source publishes enough detail to independently reproduce every result, so “AI” should be read as shorthand for publisher-built football modelling, not proof that a generative-AI chatbot calculated the table.
Rank #3
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The biggest surprises
Millwall fifth
Millwall are Squawka’s most conspicuous outsider in the play-off positions. Their inclusion shows how a weighted model can elevate a club that receives less attention than the relegated Premier League names.
Wrexham seventh
The newly promoted club is forecast to avoid a relegation fight comfortably and finish just outside the play-offs, a much more optimistic call than the bottom-three assumption applied to Lincoln, Charlton and Bolton.
Sheffield United 11th
Squawka’s projection is notably colder on Sheffield United than Statz, which places them sixth. That six-place gap is a reminder that an exact ranking can hide substantial uncertainty.
Birmingham eighth and Cardiff 19th
Birmingham are projected to make a solid return rather than struggle immediately. Cardiff, returning from League One, are instead placed 19th and remain close to the relegation group.
Stoke as a possible outperformer
Squawka flags Stoke as a team that could beat its model because of substantial transfer activity. Transfer fees alone do not establish player quality, tactical fit or availability.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What “AI prediction” means here
- Market-based projection: odds and squad information converted into a ranking.
- Statistical simulation: fixtures modelled repeatedly with team-strength ratings.
- Machine learning: a narrower term requiring evidence of a trained predictive system, which these reports do not provide.
- Generative AI: a chatbot producing a narrative or guess, not what the cited sources demonstrate.
The available evidence supports the first two descriptions. Calling the output “AI” is useful search language, but it should not imply objective certainty or an official EFL forecast.
What could change the projection?
- Transfers completed after the models’ data cut-offs.
- Managerial changes, injuries and suspensions.
- Opening-weekend results and subsequent form.
- Fixture difficulty and tactical adjustments.
- Revised betting odds or an updated model.
- Any EFL disciplinary deduction.
The season began on 14 August 2026, with the opening round running through 17 August; the scheduled final day is 1 May 2027. Opening results may already have changed live probabilities, so the forecast should be time-stamped and separated from the actual table. Sky Sports lists the season context and fixtures at this Championship guide.
How to judge a table prediction
- Transparency: inputs, weightings and data cut-offs are disclosed.
- Reproducibility: another analyst can understand how the ranking was produced.
- Freshness: transfers and opening matches are reflected.
- Uncertainty: probabilities or ranges accompany an exact order.
- Calibration: the publisher shows how previous forecasts performed.
- League context: the model accounts for Championship variance and the play-off format.
An exact 1–24 table is easy to read but creates false precision. Market odds incorporate broad information but also bookmaker margin and public sentiment; previous points are objective but can become stale; transfer spending measures fees, not guaranteed performance.
Bottom line
West Ham are the strongest consensus champion pick, and Squawka and Statz independently put Lincoln, Charlton and Bolton in the bottom three. The meaningful uncertainty is in the order of the promotion contenders, the play-off line and the congested middle and lower sections. Treat this as an August 2026 snapshot, then compare it with the live standings and any updated model at the official EFL Championship page.
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