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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteIn the UK, neither system is always cheapest. In the Government’s worked example of a well-insulated three-bedroom detached home, a gas boiler cost about £2,000 a year to run and an air-source heat pump about £1,900, a difference of roughly £100. That result used Octopus Cosy smart-tariff prices, the Ofgem cap in force from July 2023 to July 2024, a heat-pump seasonal performance factor (SPF) of 3.13 and no gas standing charge in the heat-pump case. Change the tariff, building, system design or carbon value and the ranking can change.
A heat pump uses much less purchased energy—UK policy material describes it as 2.5–3 times more efficient than a gas boiler—but UK electricity has historically cost more per kilowatt-hour than gas. Pricing emissions improves the heat pump’s relative position, yet the saving and payback still have to be calculated for the particular house.
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What the comparison is actually measuring
A fair comparison starts with the same useful heat delivered to the rooms and hot-water cylinder. Comparing a gas bill directly with an electricity bill, without accounting for efficiency, can produce a misleading result.
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Gas boiler energy input
If a home needs a known amount of useful heat, divide that heat demand by the boiler’s seasonal efficiency to estimate the gas required. A boiler operating at 90% seasonal efficiency needs approximately 1.11 kWh of gas for each 1 kWh of useful heat.
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Heat-pump electricity input
For a heat pump, divide useful heat by its seasonal coefficient of performance (SCOP). A SCOP of 3.13 means 3.13 kWh of heat is delivered for each kWh of electricity averaged over the season, so the electrical input is useful heat divided by 3.13. Real performance depends on flow temperature, outdoor temperature, defrost cycles, hot-water operation and controls.
Add all relevant costs
For each system, add the energy charge, standing charges and routine maintenance. Then add a monetary value for emissions:
carbon cost = energy input (MWh) × emissions factor (tCO2/MWh) × carbon value (£/tCO2)
Use the same accounting boundary for both options. If the gas standing charge disappears after a gas connection is removed, include that saving; if the connection remains for cooking or backup, retain the charge. The Government example omitted the gas standing charge in its heat-pump case, so its £100 difference is not a universal result.
What the UK Government example found
The consumer modelling cited by the UK Government compares a well-insulated three-bedroom detached house. Its published averages are useful as an illustration, not as a quote for every property.
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| Item | Gas boiler | Heat pump |
|---|---|---|
| Modelled annual running cost | About £2,000 | About £1,900 |
| Difference | Heat pump approximately £100 cheaper per year in this model | |
| Electricity pricing | Not applicable | Octopus Cosy smart-tariff prices used in the model |
| Gas pricing reference | Ofgem price cap from July 2023 to July 2024 | Ofgem cap period used for the comparison where applicable |
| Heat-pump seasonal performance | Not applicable | SPF 3.13 |
| Gas standing charge in heat-pump case | Omitted in the published heat-pump scenario | |
The policy explanation behind the modelling says heat pumps are “significantly (2.5 – 3x) more efficient than gas boilers and may get even more efficient, therefore requiring much less energy to run.” That efficiency advantage does not guarantee a lower bill because the price of each unit of electricity, gas-network charges and policy costs matter.
Three ways the answer changes
The following scenarios show how to structure a decision. Only the first has a published household cost in the cited evidence; the other two require your actual tariff and emissions assumptions rather than an invented national average.
| Scenario | What to enter | Annual operating cost | Simple payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard or representative tariff | Use the Government model’s tariff period, building and system assumptions. | Gas about £2,000; heat pump about £1,900; heat pump advantage about £100 a year in that example. | incremental installed cost ÷ £100 for the modelled saving. This is an illustration, not a forecast. |
| Smart or time-of-use electricity | Use your heat pump’s electricity consumption and the exact peak, shoulder and off-peak rates, plus any tariff-specific standing charge. | Not stated in the evidence; calculate by multiplying consumption in each time band by that band’s rate, then add charges and maintenance. | incremental installed cost ÷ (gas cost − heat-pump cost). A larger off-peak share shortens payback; a higher peak share lengthens it. |
| Carbon-priced case | Add emissions factors and a carbon value to both energy inputs. DESNZ guidance gives 0.45 tCO2/MWh for the fossil-fuel electricity factor used in its 2024 calculation and a £53.19/tCO2 UK ETS reference price for scheme year 2026–27. | Not stated as a complete household bill. The heat-pump carbon add-on under those reference values is about £23.94 per MWh of electricity input (0.45 × £53.19); gas needs the applicable gas emissions factor. | Recalculate the annual difference after adding both systems’ carbon costs. Do not treat the UK ETS reference price as a charge that automatically appears on a household bill. |
For a carbon-priced calculation, keep the factor and price attached to the year and accounting method. Electricity can be assigned an average, marginal or supplier-specific emissions factor, and those choices produce different results. The 0.45 tCO2/MWh figure is a policy/reference value, not a promise about the marginal emissions of every kWh you buy.
Installation cost is the main short-term disadvantage
Heat pumps generally cost much more to install than replacement gas boilers. A UK strategy assessment cited an average heat-pump installation of around £10,000. A 2024 Public Accounts Committee summary said an average heat pump was four times as expensive as a gas boiler at that time. These are broad averages: the actual quote depends on heat loss, cylinder work, electrical upgrades, emitters, access and whether the property already has suitable pipework.
Grants can change the capital gap
The policy material describes grants of £5,000 for air-source systems and £6,000 for ground-source systems in the scheme context it cites. Eligibility, qualifying equipment, installer requirements and grant values can change, so verify the current rules before treating a grant as part of your budget.
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| Capital item | How to use it |
|---|---|
| Heat-pump quotation | Use the complete installed price, including design, cylinder, controls, emitters, electrical work and commissioning. |
| Boiler quotation | Use a like-for-like replacement price, including flue, controls and any required system changes. |
| Grant | Subtract only a grant for which the property and equipment are confirmed eligible. |
| Incremental cost | (heat-pump price − confirmed grant) − boiler price |
Simple payback is the incremental cost divided by the annual saving. It ignores financing, maintenance differences, component replacement, energy-price changes, discounting and the value of cooling or lower emissions. If the extra installed cost were £7,500 and the annual operating saving were £100, the arithmetic payback would be 75 years; that calculation demonstrates why a small running-cost difference cannot by itself justify a large capital premium.
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Why efficiency does not automatically mean a lower bill
A gas boiler converts fuel to heat at roughly its seasonal efficiency, while a heat pump moves heat from outside into the building. That is why the heat pump can deliver several units of heat for each unit of electricity. However, the household pays for electricity at a much higher price per kWh than gas in many UK tariffs, and electricity bills have historically carried policy costs that gas bills do not carry in the same way.
The balance improves when a heat pump achieves a high SCOP, when the home can use cheaper time-of-use periods, when gas prices rise, or when a carbon value is applied to combustion emissions. It worsens when the heat pump runs at high flow temperatures, the property has high heat loss, electricity is bought mostly at peak rates, or a gas connection charge remains in place.
Building and design checks before choosing
Running-cost figures assume the system can meet the building’s demand efficiently. The UK Government strategy cautions that insulation, heat storage and heat emitters may need work and that heat pumps are not suitable for every building.
Insulation and heat loss
Loft, wall, floor and window performance affects the heat load. Reducing heat loss can lower the required heat-pump size and improve its seasonal efficiency. Ask for a room-by-room heat-loss calculation rather than sizing from the old boiler’s output.
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Radiators and flow temperature
Heat pumps normally work most efficiently at lower flow temperatures than boilers. Existing radiators may be adequate in some rooms, but undersized emitters can force higher flow temperatures and reduce SCOP. A design should show proposed emitter outputs at the intended flow temperature.
Outdoor space and noise
An air-source unit needs an appropriate external location, airflow clearance and a route for condensate. Check planning, lease, boundary and noise requirements for the property rather than assuming every wall or garden is suitable.
Hot water and storage
Most domestic heat-pump systems use a hot-water cylinder rather than a combi boiler’s instantaneous supply. Allow space for the cylinder and confirm recovery time, immersion-heater operation and the household’s peak hot-water pattern.
Controls and commissioning
Weather compensation, correctly balanced emitters and low-temperature operation are central to performance. Require commissioning records, control instructions and an explanation of how the system will respond to your tariff’s cheaper periods.
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- Measure useful heat demand. Use a heat-loss calculation or reliable historic consumption, separating space heating from hot water where possible.
- Choose realistic efficiencies. Use the boiler’s seasonal efficiency and the proposed heat pump’s design SCOP, not a headline laboratory COP at one temperature.
- Convert heat demand to purchased energy. Divide useful heat by boiler efficiency for gas and by SCOP for electricity.
- Apply your tariff. Multiply gas and electricity inputs by the actual unit rates. For a time-of-use tariff, split electricity consumption across each rate period.
- Add standing charges. Include gas and electricity charges in both cases. Remove the gas charge only if the connection will genuinely be cancelled.
- Add maintenance and planned replacements. Use written service prices and identify items such as pumps, controls, cylinders and immersion elements.
- Calculate carbon cost. Multiply each energy input by the emissions factor and carbon value you have chosen. Record the year, geography and whether the factor is average, marginal or supplier-specific.
- Compare capital costs. Subtract only confirmed grants, then calculate the incremental cost against a realistic boiler alternative.
- Calculate payback and test sensitivities. Re-run the result with higher and lower energy prices, different SCOPs, insulation upgrades and alternative carbon values.
When a gas boiler can still be cheaper
- The property needs expensive insulation, larger radiators, a cylinder or electrical upgrades before a heat pump can operate efficiently.
- Electricity is bought mainly at expensive peak rates and no suitable smart tariff is available.
- The household keeps a gas connection, so the gas standing charge remains alongside the heat-pump electricity bill.
- The boiler is relatively new and replacement would bring forward a large cost with little immediate energy saving.
- The heat pump is poorly designed, oversized, operated at high flow temperatures or inadequately commissioned.
When a heat pump is more likely to win
- The building is well insulated and can maintain comfort at low flow temperatures.
- A correctly sized system achieves a strong seasonal performance and can shift some demand to cheaper electricity periods.
- A confirmed grant materially reduces the installed-cost difference.
- Gas prices or carbon values rise relative to electricity, or the electricity supply becomes less carbon-intensive.
- You value the additional function of summer cooling and are comparing whole-system benefits rather than a heating bill alone.
How carbon pricing changes the decision
Putting a price on emissions does not make electricity automatically zero-carbon, nor does it guarantee a particular household charge. The result depends on which emissions are counted and how the electricity factor is chosen. A marginal grid factor asks what generation responds to an extra kWh; an average factor spreads total generation emissions across all kWh; a supplier-specific factor may reflect a contractual supply claim. Use one method consistently for both systems and disclose it.
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For the heat pump, the DESNZ sensitivity values produce a carbon cost of about £23.94 for every MWh of electricity input. A heat pump using 1 MWh would therefore receive that add-on under the stated assumptions; a system using 3 MWh would receive three times it. The corresponding gas calculation requires the gas emissions factor specified by the accounting framework. Because no single universal household gas factor or a complete carbon-inclusive tariff is established, a precise national carbon-adjusted bill would be false precision.
Questions to ask an installer and tariff provider
- What is the room-by-room design heat loss and proposed flow temperature?
- What SCOP was used, and at what climate and flow-temperature assumptions?
- Which radiators, pipework, cylinder and electrical components must change?
- How will controls use weather compensation and cheaper tariff periods?
- What are the standing charges if the gas meter is removed or retained?
- Which grant rules apply to this property and installation date?
- What annual servicing, maintenance and warranty costs are included?
- What measured information will be supplied after commissioning so seasonal performance can be checked?
Frequently asked questions
Does a heat pump always save money after carbon costs?
No. Carbon pricing generally improves its relative position, but tariff structure, heat demand, SCOP, standing charges and the selected emissions factors determine the outcome.
Is the £53.19 per tonne figure a new household tax?
No. It is the UK ETS reference price for scheme year 2026–27 cited in DESNZ guidance. It is a policy/reference value for sensitivity analysis, not a promise that this amount will be added directly to a domestic bill.
Can I keep my existing radiators?
Possibly. The answer depends on room heat loss, radiator output at the proposed lower flow temperature and the designer’s calculations. A boiler-era radiator size alone is not enough evidence.
Why does the Government example show a heat pump saving only £100?
The example combines a high-efficiency heat pump with electricity and gas prices from a specific period and tariff, uses an SPF of 3.13 and omits the gas standing charge in the heat-pump case. It is not a guaranteed saving for another tariff or home.
Should I compare a new heat pump with repairing an existing boiler?
Compare like-for-like decisions and time horizons. Include the cost and expected life of the repair or replacement, then separately show the heat pump’s capital premium and operating costs.
Does a heat pump provide cooling?
Many air-source systems can provide cooling, but the function depends on the model, emitters, controls and installation. Treat it as an additional benefit, not as an assumed reduction in the heating payback calculation.
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