Short answer: A heat pump is not automatically cheaper to run than a gas boiler. It uses roughly three to four units of heat for each unit of electricity, while an A-rated gas boiler turns about 90% of gas energy into usable heat. Because electricity usually costs far more per unit than gas, your tariff, the heat pump’s seasonal performance and your home’s heat loss determine the bill. Energy Saving Trust says a well-designed heat pump costs around the same to run as a new gas boiler at current prices; a suitable time-of-use tariff can make it cheaper.
Up-front cost, radiator capacity, insulation, hot-water storage and installer quality matter as much as the headline efficiency. Compare a complete, correctly sized system and its projected annual performance—not a boiler against a heat-pump unit in isolation.
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Heat pump and gas boiler: the decision at a glance
| Factor | Heat pump | Gas boiler |
|---|---|---|
| How heat is produced | Moves heat from outdoor air, the ground or water using electricity; it does not burn fuel. | Burns natural gas and transfers the resulting heat to water. |
| Physical efficiency | Typically three to four units of heat per unit of electricity, expressed over a test or operating condition as a coefficient of performance (CoP). | An A-rated condensing boiler converts about 90% of the gas energy into usable heat. |
| What determines the bill | Seasonal performance factor (SPF), electricity price, heat demand, controls and any gas standing charge you retain. | Boiler efficiency, gas price, heat demand and the gas standing charge. |
| Typical domestic installation cost | Energy Saving Trust gives around £11,000 for a typical air-source installation. A government expert explainer cites £6,500–£11,500 including VAT, labour and the £7,500 grant, depending on the work required. | Cost varies with boiler output, flue, controls and pipework; no single figure is established here. |
| Heat delivery | Lower flow temperatures and steadier operation; radiators may need to be larger and hot water is normally stored in a cylinder. | Higher flow temperatures and fast response; a combi boiler can make hot water on demand. |
| Space and external equipment | Needs an outdoor unit with clear airflow, indoor hydraulic equipment and usually a hot-water cylinder or other storage. | Needs the boiler, flue, pipework and, for a system or regular boiler, a cylinder; a combi avoids a cylinder. |
| Fuel exposure | Uses electricity and can avoid direct fossil-fuel combustion; emissions depend on the electricity supply. | Continues to depend on mains gas and its associated standing charge. |
The table is a screening tool. A heat pump that is oversized, installed at an unnecessarily high flow temperature or operated on an expensive tariff can cost more than a new boiler. A well-designed system on a suitable tariff can cost less.
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Why efficiency does not translate directly into a cheaper bill
CoP is a test-condition ratio
The coefficient of performance is heat delivered divided by electricity consumed at a specified outdoor temperature, water flow temperature and operating condition. A CoP of 4 means four units of heat for one unit of electricity under that condition. It is not a promise that the system will average 4 across a British winter.
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SPF is the number to use for annual costs
The seasonal performance factor (SPF), also called seasonal CoP, averages performance over the year. It captures changing outdoor temperatures, defrost cycles, pump and control electricity, domestic hot-water operation, radiator size and the flow temperature selected by the installer. Ask for the calculated SPF for your property before signing a contract, together with the assumptions behind it. Two identical heat-pump models can have different annual costs when fitted to different emitters or controls.
Boiler efficiency has a different denominator
An A-rated condensing boiler is commonly described as converting about 90% of the gas energy into useful heat. Its annual fuel requirement is therefore approximately your home’s heat demand divided by 0.90, subject to cycling, controls and hot-water losses. The heat pump’s electricity requirement is approximately the same heat demand divided by its SPF. The cheaper energy source per kilowatt-hour then decides which annual bill is lower.
Tariff and standing-charge effects
Energy Saving Trust notes that electricity on a standard tariff can cost nearly four times as much per unit as gas. That price ratio can erase the heat pump’s efficiency advantage and leave it slightly more expensive to run than a new boiler. A time-of-use tariff designed for heat-pump operation can provide cheaper overnight or off-peak electricity and reverse the result. If you remove a gas connection after switching, the avoided gas standing charge also belongs in the comparison; retaining gas for another appliance means that saving may not occur.
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Government model: about £1,900 versus £2,000 per year
The UK Government Clean Energy Campaign modelled a well-insulated three-bedroom detached house using July 2023–July 2024 prices. It estimated about £1,900 a year for a typical heat pump with an SPF of 3.13 and about £2,000 for a gas boiler. The heat-pump case used the Octopus Cosy smart tariff and assumed no gas standing charge. These are illustrative assumptions, not a prediction for every property, tariff or winter.
Energy Saving Trust’s broader conclusion
Energy Saving Trust’s current guidance says running costs for heat pumps are around the same as for a new gas boiler at current prices. It also explains why standard tariffs can make a heat pump slightly dearer and why time-of-use pricing can make it cheaper. Your own calculation should replace the model’s house, tariff, climate and usage assumptions with your measured heat demand and quoted SPF.
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A practical comparison method
- Obtain the annual space-heating and hot-water heat demand from a room-by-room heat-loss calculation or reliable energy model.
- For a heat pump, divide that demand by the installer’s projected SPF and add any stated auxiliary electricity consumption.
- For a boiler, divide the useful heat demand by the boiler’s realistic seasonal efficiency rather than its best laboratory figure.
- Multiply each fuel requirement by the unit rate on the tariff you would actually use. Include standing charges that remain after a changeover.
- Run the calculation for a standard tariff and any time-of-use tariff you could genuinely access. Show sensitivity to colder weather, higher flow temperature and a lower-than-promised SPF.
Do not treat a manufacturer’s maximum CoP, a promotional tariff or a one-year price forecast as a guaranteed payback.
Up-front cost, grants and VAT
Installation cost is site-specific
Energy Saving Trust gives around £11,000 as a typical air-source heat-pump installation. A GOV.UK expert explainer quoting Joanna O’Loan, Knowledge Manager at Energy Saving Trust, gives a wider £6,500–£11,500 range including VAT, labour and the £7,500 grant, depending on the work. The spread reflects heat-loss calculations, new or enlarged radiators, electrical work, pipework, cylinder and controls, access, foundations and remedial building work. Obtain a whole-system quote rather than comparing the appliance price with a boiler-only quote.
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Ofgem’s scheme information lists these amounts, subject to eligibility and scheme dates:
- £7,500 for eligible air-to-water and ground-source heat pumps.
- £2,500 for eligible air-to-air systems.
- £9,000 for eligible off-gas-grid properties from 21 July 2026 to 31 March 2027.
- 0% VAT on qualifying energy-saving-material installation from 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2027.
Amounts, qualifying technologies, geography and deadlines can change. Confirm the live Ofgem rules before paying a deposit. Installers using the Boiler Upgrade Scheme must be MCS certified, and the grant application is normally handled through the installer.
Why payback cannot be stated as one number
A payback period depends on the difference between your old boiler’s actual fuel use and the new system’s total cost, including financing, maintenance, controls, radiator work and tariff changes. It also depends on the grant available on the installation date. A household with high heat demand, a poor old boiler and access to cheap off-peak electricity may recover the additional cost sooner than a lightly heated, efficient home on a flat electricity tariff. Ask for a cash-flow table showing annual savings under conservative, central and high-cost assumptions.
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Is your home suitable for a heat pump?
Start with a room-by-room heat-loss assessment
The heat pump must be sized from the heat loss of each room at the local design temperature, not by copying the output of the existing boiler. The assessment should account for walls, windows, roofs, floors, ventilation and desired indoor temperatures. It determines the unit’s output, radiator requirements and the design flow temperature. A unit that is too small may rely on immersion heating or fail to maintain comfort in cold weather; one that is too large can cycle inefficiently and cost more.
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Check insulation, but do not assume perfect insulation is mandatory
Reducing heat loss generally allows a smaller heat pump, lower flow temperatures and lower running costs. Loft, cavity-wall, solid-wall, floor and draught measures should be assessed for technical suitability and value. Insulation is not an absolute prerequisite: a properly designed system can operate in an older house, but the heat-loss result must be reflected in the equipment and emitters. Avoid a quote that treats insulation as a vague promise instead of quantifying the effect on room loads.
Radiators and underfloor heating
Heat pumps usually deliver water at a lower temperature than a boiler. Existing radiators may still work, but some rooms may need larger panels, additional emitters or underfloor heating to release the required heat at the proposed flow temperature. Ask for a room-by-room emitter schedule showing each radiator’s output at the heat-pump design temperature. Do not buy so-called heat-pump-compatible radiators by size alone; the output must be confirmed against the calculation.
Outdoor unit and planning constraints
An air-source unit needs free airflow and a location that allows safe condensate drainage, servicing and defrost operation. The installer should check clearances, boundary relationships, foundations, cable routes and any planning or building-control requirements that apply locally. GOV.UK expert guidance says a well-installed, certified unit should not create a noise disturbance; poor siting, vibration transmission or inadequate maintenance can still cause problems.
Indoor space and hot water
A standard heat pump does not provide combi-style hot water on demand. Most homes need a hot-water cylinder, heat battery or another storage arrangement, plus space for pumps, valves and controls. The cylinder is heated gradually and may be scheduled when electricity is cheaper. Check doorways, floor loading, cylinder dimensions, pipe runs and whether the existing airing cupboard or loft can accommodate the equipment before accepting a design.
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How day-to-day use differs
Steady operation versus rapid bursts
Boilers can raise room temperature quickly and, in combi configuration, deliver hot water whenever a tap opens. Heat pumps are generally most efficient when they run steadily at a lower flow temperature, matching the building’s ongoing heat loss. Large overnight setbacks or frequent on-off commands can trigger high-temperature recovery and reduce efficiency. Use weather compensation and room controls as designed, then adjust schedules gradually rather than repeatedly overriding them.
Hot-water scheduling
Stored hot water must be heated in advance. A time-of-use tariff may favour a scheduled heating period, while households with large simultaneous showers may need a larger cylinder or a recovery plan. Confirm the cylinder’s usable volume, reheating time and immersion-heater controls. Keep the manufacturer’s hygiene cycle enabled where required; its occasional higher temperature will use more electricity than normal heat-pump operation.
Noise, maintenance and resilience
Noise is mainly an installation and maintenance issue: use a stable base, avoid reflective corners and keep airflow paths clear. Ask who will service the outdoor unit, clean filters and check refrigerant and condensate systems, and what the warranty covers for the compressor, controls and cylinder. A boiler replacement may be simpler where the existing gas infrastructure and radiators are sound, but it leaves the home exposed to future gas prices and standing charges.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Carbon and energy-system considerations
A heat pump moves heat rather than burning gas at the property, so it can reduce direct fossil-fuel use. Its total emissions depend on the electricity mix, the system’s SPF, refrigerant management and the carbon embodied in installation. A gas boiler’s on-site combustion is tied to gas consumption. If reducing fossil-fuel exposure is a priority, compare the heat pump’s projected annual electricity use and tariff with your expected grid mix rather than relying on a generic efficiency label.
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Questions to put in every installer quote
- What is the calculated design heat loss for every room and for the whole dwelling?
- What heat-pump output and model are proposed, and at what outdoor design temperature?
- What SPF do you project for space heating and hot water, and which flow temperatures and controls produce it?
- Which radiators, underfloor circuits, pipework, cylinder and electrical components must change? Show their outputs and capacities.
- Where will the outdoor unit sit, what are its noise figures and clearances, and how will condensate be managed?
- What is included in the price: surveys, foundations, scaffolding, distribution-board work, commissioning, controls, VAT and removal of the old boiler?
- Which grant and VAT treatment have you used, what happens if eligibility changes, and who submits the application?
- What maintenance, response time, warranty terms and performance monitoring are included?
Get at least three detailed quotes from MCS-certified installers. Compare the design documents and assumptions, not only the headline discount.
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Common mistakes and how to avoid them
Comparing a new heat pump with an old, failing boiler
Use a realistic seasonal efficiency for the boiler you would otherwise install, not the fuel use of a neglected appliance. If replacing an old boiler, separate the savings from improved controls and insulation from the savings attributable to the heat pump itself.
Using CoP instead of SPF
Request the annual SPF calculation and ask what happens at the design cold-weather condition, during defrost and while making hot water. A high catalogue CoP at mild outdoor temperature does not establish annual cost.
Keeping the old radiator design unchanged
Radiators sized for high-temperature boiler water may not emit enough heat at a heat-pump flow temperature. Have every room checked and budget for replacements where the output is inadequate.
Accepting an appliance-only price
Include cylinder, controls, pipework, electrical upgrades, outdoor base, commissioning, certification and remedial work. The lowest appliance quote can become the highest completed-project cost.
Assuming a grant is permanent
Grant values and deadlines are policy decisions. Verify eligibility on the current Ofgem page and in the installer’s written quote before relying on a net-cost or payback calculation.
Ignoring the tariff after installation
Model the tariff you will actually use, including time-of-use rules, minimum terms and standing charges. Recalculate if you cannot access the quoted smart tariff or if you retain a gas connection.
A decision framework for your household
A heat pump is more compelling when
- Your home has manageable heat loss and space for a cylinder and outdoor unit.
- The heat-loss design supports low flow temperatures without unacceptable radiator changes.
- You can obtain a credible SPF projection from an MCS-certified installer.
- You can use a competitive heat-pump tariff or have high enough heat demand for the efficiency gain to matter.
- You value reducing direct gas use and are prepared for steadier heating and scheduled hot water.
A boiler may remain the practical choice when
- There is no suitable outdoor location or indoor storage space and major building work is not feasible.
- The property needs very high-temperature emitters that cannot be upgraded economically.
- Your heat demand is low, your electricity tariff is expensive and no suitable time-of-use option is available.
- You need rapid, on-demand hot water and cannot accommodate a cylinder.
These are decision signals, not blanket rules. A detailed heat-loss assessment and whole-system quote can change the conclusion in either direction.
Bottom line
Choose on measured heat demand, projected SPF, the tariff you can really obtain and the complete installed price after verified support. Heat pumps have the stronger physical efficiency, but electricity-to-gas prices determine running cost. In the UK evidence available now, a well-designed heat pump can cost about the same as a new gas boiler and can be cheaper on a suitable time-of-use tariff; it can also cost more on a standard tariff or in a poorly designed home. Three comparable MCS-certified quotes, a room-by-room heat-loss calculation and an explicit annual-cost model are the safest basis for the decision.
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