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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesGoldman Sachs was reported to have forecast a roughly 26% US-dollar price gain over about 12 months for the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index, with technology-led earnings growth in Korea and Taiwan central to the bullish case. The figure is a dated forecast—not a promised investor return—and the implied upside changes with the index level used as the starting point.
What Goldman Sachs’s 26% forecast means
The target applies to the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index, commonly identified as MXAPJ. “Price return” measures a change in the index level; it is not the same as total return, which also accounts for income such as dividends. The reported target was 1,120, raised from 1,080. Investing.com reported the revision on September 5, 2026, describing 26% as the implied price gain from the index level at that time.
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| Report and snapshot | MXAPJ level | Target | Reported implied upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 5, 2026 Investing.com report; its underlying market reference date was not specified in the report summary | Not stated by Investing.com | 1,120, raised from 1,080 | 26% USD price gain, as reported by Investing.com |
| September 4, 2026 snapshot in a September 5 Finvaulta summary of Goldman Sachs | 891 | 1,120 | 26% USD price upside |
| October 3, 2026 Finvaulta summary of Goldman Sachs | 880 | 1,120 | 27% implied upside |
The October figure is not a new target: it shows how the same 1,120 target translated into a different implied return when the reference level was lower. The September and October figures are snapshots from their respective reports, not live market readings. Finvaulta describes its summaries as representations of Goldman Sachs material, not independent verification or live data.
Why the forecast depends on technology earnings
Investing.com attributed the target increase to higher earnings forecasts, led by Korea and Taiwan, and to strength in technology-sector earnings. An August 30, 2026 interpretation by Hilo Research of Goldman Sachs’s view supplied further detail: demand for AI hardware and semiconductors was presented as an important support for earnings in those markets. These are reported expectations, not a guarantee that demand, profits, or share prices will follow the forecast.
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| Market or region | 2026 earnings-growth forecast | 2027 earnings-growth forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Asia-Pacific region | 72% | 23% |
| Korea | 350% | 35% |
| Taiwan | 62% | 30% |
| Japan | 19% for FY2026, revised from 13% | Not stated in the August 30 Hilo Research interpretation |
These are earnings-growth forecasts reported by Hilo Research on August 30, not equity returns. Korea’s exceptionally high 2026 estimate is a forecast for earnings growth, not an expected 350% gain in Korean stocks. Separately, a September 5 Finvaulta summary reported that second-quarter 2026 earnings across 1,029 reporting companies in the region had grown 102% year over year. That is a reported quarterly comparison, not the same measure or period as the full-year forecasts above.
How broad is the opportunity beyond Korea and Taiwan?
The reported strategy was not uniform across the region. Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation said Goldman Sachs favored Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and China A-shares, while underweighting Australia and parts of ASEAN. It described preferences for technology hardware and semiconductors, capital goods, banks excluding Australia and China, and healthcare.
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The same interpretation highlighted how much the index-level forecast depended on Korea and Taiwan: its implied 12-month price return fell from 26% for MXAPJ to 8% when those two markets were excluded. That comparison matters for readers assessing whether the regional headline reflects broadly distributed gains or relies heavily on a small set of technology-linked markets.
| Measure in dated report | MXAPJ | Excluding Korea and Taiwan | Source and date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied 12-month price return | 26% | 8% | Hilo Research interpretation of Goldman Sachs, August 30, 2026 |
| Implied total return | 28% | 11% | Hilo Research interpretation of Goldman Sachs, August 30, 2026 |
| Implied total return | 29% | Not stated | Finvaulta summary of Goldman Sachs, September 5, 2026 |
The total-return figures differ between the two dated summaries, so they should not be treated as a single settled estimate. Neither should total return be substituted for the 26% price-return headline.
What the valuation figures add—and what they do not
Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation reported MXAPJ at 11.1 times forward earnings with a 19.9% return on equity, and Korea at 5 times forward earnings versus higher valuations in Taiwan. These are report-date estimates, not current quotes. They offer context for the earnings thesis, but a low multiple alone does not establish that a market is undervalued or that it will outperform.
The same interpretation described valuations in growth-adjusted terms as favorable and investor positioning as less stretched, while also emphasizing the region’s reliance on technology earnings. Those are components of the reported argument, not assurances that prices have fully reflected—or will reward—future earnings growth.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Which risks could undermine the outlook?
The September 5 Investing.com report identified rising bond yields, Middle East tensions, and uncertainty around the upcoming US midterm elections as possible sources of near-term volatility. The October 3 Finvaulta summary added a more difficult market snapshot: MXAPJ had fallen 1.3% in the week and stood 5% below its June 22 peak, though it remained up 22% year to date. The index excluding Korea and Taiwan was down 7% year to date in that same summary.
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →That October 3 summary also reported a US 10-year Treasury yield of 5.24% and about US$10 billion in weekly foreign outflows across emerging Asia excluding China, led by Korea and India. Those figures are dated observations, not current market data. The summary cited Q4 seasonality and earnings revisions as support for a positive 12-month view, but higher yields and outflows as near-term qualifications.
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- Yield sensitivity: Higher US yields can pressure equity valuations and make technology-heavy markets more vulnerable to shifts in investor risk appetite.
- Technology-cycle exposure: The earnings case relies substantially on Korea and Taiwan and on continued demand for semiconductors and AI hardware.
- Geopolitical and political uncertainty: The September report specifically flagged Middle East tensions and US election uncertainty.
- Regional divergence: The forecast’s much lower implied return excluding Korea and Taiwan, alongside the dated year-to-date comparison, shows that a regional index headline can conceal very different market outcomes.
How to assess the call
The most useful way to read the forecast is to keep its moving parts separate: the report date and reference index level; price return versus total return; the broad index versus an index excluding Korea and Taiwan; and the earnings and valuation assumptions behind the technology-led thesis. The reported figures establish what Goldman Sachs was said to expect at particular dates; they do not establish what investors will earn.
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