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Freedom251 › Blog › Eurasian Economic Union

From Diplomacy to Dealmaking: A New Route for Russia–India Trade

By Freedom251 Team · · 4 min read

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India and Russia recorded USD 68.7 billion in bilateral goods trade in FY 2024–25, but the flow was heavily weighted toward imports into India: Indian government figures put exports to Russia at USD 4.9 billion and imports from Russia at USD 63.8 billion. The countries’ stated aim is to raise annual trade to USD 100 billion by 2030 while making it more balanced. That is a policy target, not a result already achieved.

How much does India trade with Russia?

The latest complete-year official goods-trade baseline identified is for India’s FY 2024–25. The figures below are from a Government of India Press Information Bureau brief published in 2025; they are not a 2026 running total.

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Measure FY 2024–25 value
Bilateral goods trade USD 68.7 billion (Government of India, 2025)
Indian exports to Russia USD 4.9 billion (Government of India, 2025)
Indian imports from Russia USD 63.8 billion (Government of India, 2025)

On those same-year figures, imports exceeded exports by USD 58.9 billion. The imbalance is the central commercial challenge behind official calls for more Indian exports. The figures are attributed to the Indian government; the material available here does not include an independent reconciliation against Russian customs data or a harmonized international series.

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Services trade should be kept separate from this goods comparison. The same government brief reports USD 1.021 billion in bilateral services trade for 2021, the latest services figure it gives. Because it refers to a different year, it should not be added to the FY 2024–25 goods total as if both described the same period.

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What does India export to Russia, and what does it import?

The relationship pairs Russian energy and commodity supplies to India with a smaller Indian export flow that includes manufactured and agricultural products. The Indian government’s categories illustrate the difference in scale and composition; they do not, by themselves, establish how much any one category contributes to the total.

India’s imports from Russia

  • Crude oil and petroleum products
  • Sunflower oil and fertilizers
  • Coking coal
  • Precious stones and metals

India’s exports to Russia

  • Pharmaceuticals and chemicals
  • Iron and steel
  • Marine products

Policy statements emphasize expanding Indian exports and industrial cooperation, but they do not establish that these sectors will close the trade gap. Growth depends on actual orders and delivery, as well as whether companies can manage payments, logistics, insurance and market-access requirements.

How do the countries plan to reach USD 100 billion in annual trade?

At their December 5, 2025 summit, the two governments restated a goal of USD 100 billion in annual bilateral trade by 2030 and welcomed a Programme for the Development of Strategic Areas of India–Russia Economic Cooperation till 2030. Their stated approach includes increasing Indian exports, industrial cooperation, technology partnerships and investment. The target is an ambition; the announcement does not demonstrate that trade has already reached that level or establish a forecast for a particular year.

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In September 2026, India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal described work toward the trade target and a separate USD 50 billion two-way investment target by 2030. News On AIR reported that a bilateral priority-investment mechanism was tracking 40 live projects in advanced manufacturing, energy, mining, railways and emerging technologies. “Live” describes projects being tracked, not projects completed or investments delivered.

India–EAEU free trade agreement status

India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) have begun formal negotiations on a goods free trade agreement, according to the September 2026 Indian government report. The agreement is not reported as signed, ratified or in force. Until negotiations produce an agreement and it enters into force, businesses should not assume that the proposed deal provides new tariff preferences.

Investment agreement work

The December 2025 joint statement called for more effort on a bilateral investment-promotion and protection agreement. That is a negotiating and policy workstream, distinct from the USD 50 billion investment ambition and from the projects tracked by the priority-investment mechanism.

What needs to work behind the trade announcements?

The leaders’ agenda identifies practical conditions for turning policy into transactions: reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, addressing logistics bottlenecks, facilitating connectivity, ensuring smooth payments, finding mutually acceptable insurance and reinsurance solutions, and maintaining regular business contact. These are named priorities, not evidence that each obstacle has been resolved.

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Payments: objectives are not the same as transaction availability

The governments say they will continue work on settlements in national currencies and consultations on interoperability among national payment systems, financial messaging systems and central-bank digital currency platforms. This signals an intended framework and continuing technical and policy discussions. It does not establish that every bank, company or transaction can currently settle in national currencies, or that the systems are already interoperable. Firms need to confirm payment routes and counterparties for each transaction.

Insurance and market access

Insurance and reinsurance are explicitly part of the bilateral agenda, alongside trade barriers. The official statements reviewed do not set out transaction-level availability, coverage terms or a universal solution. The practical position can therefore differ by shipment, insurer, bank and counterparties involved.

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Which routes are part of the India–Russia trade agenda?

Official statements identify three connectivity priorities: the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the Chennai–Vladivostok maritime corridor and the Northern Sea Route. The September 2026 Indian report again names the INSTC and Chennai–Vladivostok route.

These references establish political priority, not a performance comparison. The official passages reviewed do not provide consistent route-level figures for transit time, cost, capacity, reliability or shipment volumes. Without those measures, it is not possible to say which route is fastest, cheapest or most dependable, or how much any corridor has already increased trade.

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What will show whether the strategy is working?

The policy direction is clearer than the commercial outcome. To assess progress toward the 2030 ambition, the most useful indicators are measurable results rather than new declarations:

  • Whether Indian exports to Russia rise on a comparable fiscal-year basis, alongside the total trade figure and imports.
  • Whether tracked investment projects reach milestones and deliver capital or operating capacity.
  • Formal milestones in the India–EAEU negotiations and any eventual agreement’s entry into force.
  • Evidence that payment channels, insurance arrangements and trade-barrier changes are usable for real transactions.
  • Comparable route data on cost, time, capacity and reliability for the named corridors.

Those indicators separate the stated ambition from the progress that companies and policymakers can verify.

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Eurasian Economic UnionIndia–Russia relationsIndia–Russia tradeinternational tradetrade corridors

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