The S&P 500’s bull market began at its October 12, 2022 closing low and had gained 117% by October 9, 2026, when Reuters reported the index near record highs. AI-related investment has helped support corporate profits and economic growth, but the rally’s concentration in a handful of large companies and questions about whether AI spending will pay off make “room to run” a possibility, not a promise. The separate headline figure of “$40 trillion up” is not established by the available report: it does not define what assets, period, or calculation that amount represents.
How the bull market is measured
A bull market is commonly defined as a rise of at least 20% following a decline of at least 20% from a peak, although definitions vary. Reuters dated this cycle’s start to October 12, 2022, the day the S&P 500 reached its closing low. In a report published October 9, 2026, shortly before the four-year anniversary, Reuters said the index had gained 117% and was near record highs.
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That 117% is the reported rise in the S&P 500 over the bull-market period through Reuters’ October 9 report. It is not the same as a figure for total market capitalization, household wealth, or all U.S. assets. Reuters’ report does not establish the title’s “$40 trillion up” amount or say what it measures, so that number cannot be treated as a description of this index gain.
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Corporate profits and economic growth
Reuters described strong corporate profit growth as a support for stocks. It also reported that Oxford Economics estimated AI accounted for about one-third of recent U.S. economic growth. That estimate includes direct investment in AI infrastructure and a wealth effect associated with stock gains; it should be read as an attributed estimate, not proof that AI alone caused that share of growth.
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Investment in AI infrastructure
Large technology companies, often called hyperscalers, have been investing in data centers and related infrastructure. Reuters linked that spending to corporate profits and economic growth, and reported an expectation of more than 35% S&P 500 earnings growth “this year” attributed to AI-related hyperscaler data-center capital expenditure. Because the report does not establish a forecast period beyond that relative wording here, the figure should not be read as a timeless or independently verified earnings result.
Investment can lift activity and benefit suppliers before it is clear whether the resulting AI services will generate profits sufficient to justify the cost. That distinction is central to the bullish case and its main uncertainty.
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Why some investors see room for further gains
Record-high index levels, reported profit growth, and continued infrastructure spending underpin the case that the rally may continue. Mark Hackett, chief market strategist for Nationwide, told Reuters, “Four years is not, by any stretch of the imagination, scary with regards to a bull market,” adding that bull markets “don’t end of old age; they end from disease.” The point is that a market’s age alone does not identify when it will turn.
Reuters also reported that Edward Jones remained overweight equities, though less aggressively than before. That positioning reflects a constructive but more measured view, rather than a claim that stocks are risk-free or certain to rise.
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What makes this rally vulnerable
A large share of the index sits in a few companies
J.P. Morgan Asset Management figures cited by Reuters put the top ten S&P 500 companies at about 40% of the index’s weight, up from about 28% in October 2022. Only the technology and communication services sectors had outperformed the index among its eleven sectors, according to the report. This means the headline index’s strength does not describe every sector or stock equally.
Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones, warned Reuters: “The risk of concentration is that if the prevailing theme goes out of favor, portfolios might feel it in an outsized way.” A reversal in the companies carrying the most index weight could therefore have an outsized effect on the benchmark.
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AI spending still has to produce returns
Spending on data centers and related infrastructure is evidence of investment, not proof that every company making that investment—or every company associated with AI—will earn an adequate return. Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise, told Reuters that “the easy money around AI has been made” and that technology companies will face increasing pressure to show that current spending translates into profits. If realized returns disappoint, enthusiasm around the market’s defining theme could weaken.
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Higher yields and interest rates can compete with stocks
Reuters identified higher Treasury yields as a potential weight on equities: when bonds offer more income, they can become more competitive with stocks and put pressure on equity valuations. It also noted that Federal Reserve rate hikes could slow economic activity. These risks can matter even if corporate earnings remain positive, because investors weigh expected earnings against both borrowing costs and alternatives such as bonds.
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How to read the bullish case alongside the risks
- AI investment versus AI returns: Data-center spending can support current activity, but companies still need to demonstrate that it produces profits.
- Index performance versus market breadth: A strong S&P 500 can coexist with weaker performance across most sectors, particularly when the largest companies account for a growing share of the index.
- Equities versus bonds: Higher Treasury yields can make fixed income more attractive and put pressure on stock valuations.
- Market longevity versus market health: Four years is not, by itself, evidence that a bull market must end; earnings, rates, concentration, and the durability of AI-related gains are more informative risks to watch.
The evidence supports a nuanced view: the U.S. bull market had substantial gains and real economic support from AI-related investment, but those facts do not establish that the same pace can continue. Its next phase depends in part on whether earnings catch up with expectations and whether gains extend beyond the largest AI-linked companies.
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