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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchForrester forecast in 2022 that the worldwide public-cloud market would exceed $1 trillion in 2026. That was a projection, not a reported result. As of October 4, 2026, the public figures cited here do not establish whether the market crossed that threshold using Forrester’s definition.
What Forrester forecast
Forrester’s November 2022 announcement put the worldwide public-cloud market at an estimated $446.4 billion in 2022 and projected that it would more than double to over $1 trillion by 2026. The firm described the outlook as a growth trajectory of more than 20%. These are forecast values published in 2022, not audited historical results. Forrester’s announcement does not, in the public material cited here, disclose enough detail to reconstruct its market-sizing methodology.
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Which parts of cloud were included?
Forrester’s December 2022 press release highlighted two large components of its 2026 outlook:
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems| Category | Forrester’s 2026 forecast, published in 2022 |
|---|---|
| Cloud infrastructure services | Nearly $496 billion |
| Cloud applications | Nearly $397 billion |
Forrester described these as rounded estimates, not exact totals. The public release does not establish that these two categories exhaust the overall market, so they should not be added together and presented as a precise reconciliation of the $1 trillion forecast. The figures and the firm’s explanation are in its December 2022 press release.
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The announcement frames the forecast as a worldwide public-cloud market outlook. The accessible public material does not provide a full category-by-category definition or a detailed methodology. That makes scope especially important when comparing the projection with later reports that measure infrastructure services, or use different categories and reporting periods.
Why Forrester expected growth—and why it saw pressure
Forrester expected continued expansion, but a more difficult competitive environment. Its outlook pointed to several forces that could complicate providers’ growth and profitability:
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- More competition and commoditized infrastructure: As core infrastructure services become less distinctive, major providers face pressure to compete on price and features.
- High investment requirements: Hyperscalers were investing in analytics, AI and machine learning, databases, development services and SaaS while continuing to fund large infrastructure build-outs.
- Market fragmentation: Political and regulatory tensions could make the market less uniform across regions.
- Edge computing: Edge vendors could capture a larger share of IT spending that might otherwise go to centralized cloud services.
Forrester also described areas where providers could differentiate or sustain demand. Serverless development, automation and low-code integration could support infrastructure-related growth; investments in databases, analytics and development tools could add value beyond basic computing and storage. Cloud applications presented a different challenge: Forrester described that market as approaching saturation even as hyperscalers sought to improve their SaaS offerings and host SaaS products.
In the December 2022 release, Forrester principal analyst Lee Sustar said: “This growth will continue into 2026. It will be challenged, however, by competitive pressure for hyperscalers and providers to make massive investments in services like database and analytics, development services, and SaaS — all while maintaining high levels of infrastructure investment to keep pace with their rivals’ innovation.”
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What later market figures do—and do not—show
Synergy Research Group reported that cloud-infrastructure-services revenue reached $143.4 billion in the second quarter of 2026, with $500 billion in revenue on a trailing-12-month basis. Synergy’s measure includes IaaS, PaaS and hosted private cloud; it says public IaaS and PaaS account for most of that market. Synergy also reported 47% year-over-year growth in public IaaS and PaaS for Q2 and 43% growth in the broader cloud-infrastructure category. Those growth rates apply to their stated service groupings, not to the entire public-cloud market in Forrester’s forecast.
The figures are evidence of strong infrastructure-market activity, but they do not prove that Forrester’s full public-cloud market crossed $1 trillion. The scopes differ, and Synergy’s quarterly and trailing-12-month measures are not the same as Forrester’s forecast for a full-year market total. See Synergy’s Q2 2026 report for its figures and definitions.
Gartner’s June 2026 forecast abstract describes AI demand for high-performance infrastructure as reshaping cloud spending. It says IaaS is leading growth, PaaS is supported by orchestration needs, and SaaS follows a more measured path as businesses optimize applications. The accessible abstract does not give a total-market dollar amount, so it cannot confirm or refute the $1 trillion threshold. Gartner’s forecast abstract provides that segment-level context.
Did public-cloud spending actually pass $1 trillion in 2026?
The figures above do not answer that question on a like-for-like basis. To evaluate a later market estimate against Forrester’s forecast, check whether it measures public cloud or includes hosted private cloud; which categories it counts, such as IaaS, PaaS and SaaS; whether it reports a full year, one quarter or trailing 12 months; and whether it is an original forecast, revised forecast or reported estimate. Currency and nominal-versus-constant-dollar treatment also matter when a source specifies them.
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Without a full-year figure using a scope comparable to Forrester’s, the responsible conclusion is that the 2022 forecast anticipated a market above $1 trillion in 2026, while the cited later infrastructure data show strong growth in a narrower, differently defined measure. They do not establish the full-year outcome for Forrester’s market definition.
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