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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsHDFC Securities forecast around 12% year-on-year revenue growth across its FMCG coverage for the July–September 2026 quarter, but that is a brokerage estimate—not an industry result, a consensus across all companies or a forecast for every stock. Its preferred names included Nestlé India, Godrej Consumer Products, Britannia Industries, Honasa Consumer, Emami and Bikaji Foods. The outlook is selective: input costs could squeeze margins, and stronger sales do not necessarily mean stronger profits or a rising share price.
What the 12% forecast means
Q2 FY27 covers July through September 2026 for Indian companies following an April–March financial year. As of October 13, results were still ahead: Business Standard reported that Nestlé India had informed exchanges it would announce its Q2 FY27 results on October 15, 2026. The figures below are therefore forecasts published before results, not reported performance.
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HDFC Securities attributed its roughly 12% year-on-year revenue-growth expectation across its FMCG coverage to a softer year-ago base and selective price increases. It maintained an underweight stance on the sector, citing weak earnings visibility and a waning competitive moat, and said performance improvement would be important for valuations. The 12% figure should not be treated as a market-wide statistic or as a promise that every covered company will grow at that rate. LiveMint reported HDFC Securities’ October 7 preview and stance.
HDFC Securities put its concern plainly: “FMCG sector valuations continue to de-rate amid weak earnings visibility and a waning moat. We maintain our underweight stance and see performance improvement as critical for valuation. Q2 topline is likely to be stronger on a low base and incremental price hikes,” as quoted by LiveMint on October 7, 2026. This is the brokerage’s view, not a universal consensus.
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Which FMCG stocks analysts highlighted
HDFC Securities’ October 7 preferred list comprised Nestlé India, Godrej Consumer Products, Britannia Industries, Honasa Consumer, Emami and Bikaji Foods. Its forecasts show why a preferred-stock list is not the same thing as a ranking by near-term earnings growth.
| Company | Forecast or analyst signal | What to keep in mind |
|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India | HDFC Securities forecast 21% revenue growth for Q2 FY27. Business Standard reported brokerage estimates of ₹6,765–₹6,809 crore in revenue and ₹1,022–₹1,034 crore in PAT. | The range represents estimates reported before results, not company guidance or actual performance. Business Standard also reported brokerages’ volume expectation of around 10%. |
| Godrej Consumer Products | HDFC Securities forecast 18% revenue growth. | This is a revenue estimate; it does not by itself establish profit growth or a share-price gain. |
| Britannia Industries | HDFC Securities forecast 12% revenue growth. | Brokerage commentary also flagged sugar and palmolein inflation as costs to watch. |
| Emami | Included in HDFC Securities’ preferred list; its October 7 summary expected single-digit earnings growth. | A preferred name can still face subdued earnings growth. |
| Bikaji Foods | Included in HDFC Securities’ preferred list; the brokerage forecast a 15% decline in adjusted PAT and set a ₹700 target price. | The target and earnings outlook point in different directions. The target was reported in an October 7 summary and is a brokerage estimate, not a guaranteed return. |
| Honasa Consumer | Included in HDFC Securities’ preferred list. | The reviewed previews do not establish a comparable company-specific revenue or profit-growth figure here. |
HDFC Securities’ October 7 summary also forecast single-digit earnings growth for HUL and Dabur, while expecting earnings declines for ITC, Bikaji Foods and Gopal Snacks. These earnings forecasts should not be conflated with the brokerage’s broader revenue-growth estimate. LiveMint’s October 7 coverage summarized the revenue and company forecasts. The profit outlook and margin concerns were also reported by NDTV Profit.
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What the company forecasts say about sales drivers
Nestlé India: volume, pricing and international growth
In a separate preview summary published October 12, HDFC Securities expected Nestlé India’s domestic revenue to grow about 20%, with volume growth around 10% and domestic pricing of about 6%; it expected international growth of 35% year on year. These are distinct parts of the brokerage’s outlook, not interchangeable measures of total company growth. Business Standard’s October 13 report gave a separate range of brokerage estimates: revenue of ₹6,765–₹6,809 crore, equivalent to 20–21% year-on-year growth, and PAT of ₹1,022–₹1,034 crore, about 37–38% growth. It attributed the expectations to factors including demand, mix, premiumisation, coffee prices and cost efficiency. The estimates vary by brokerage and should remain attributed rather than blended into a single consensus. LiveMint’s October 12 preview and Business Standard’s October 13 preview report these expectations.
ITC: cigarette sales and reported revenue can diverge
HDFC Securities’ October 12 preview said cigarette gross revenue growth could be offset by excise-related pressure on net sales, and forecast an 8% decline in cigarette volumes. This is a reminder that gross sales, net sales and unit volumes can tell different stories within one company.
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Britannia: a better comparison, with commodity costs to watch
The same HDFC Securities preview described improved net sales against a weak comparison for Britannia, while noting sugar and palmolein inflation. A weak base can lift the reported growth rate, while higher input costs may limit the amount that reaches profit.
Marico: growth against a high base
HDFC Securities expected approximately 12% domestic revenue growth for Marico against a high base, with volume growth of about 10%. ICICI Direct separately highlighted Marico as a potential beneficiary of lower copra costs and a better mix. Those are separate brokerage observations, not a guarantee that lower costs will translate into a particular margin or share-price outcome. LiveMint reported HDFC Securities’ October 12 company preview; ICICI Direct’s October 2026 preview discussed demand and input costs.
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Why margins may weaken while revenue rises
Revenue growth measures sales, not what remains after costs. HDFC Securities warned that raw-material inflation could weigh on margins, even as a softer comparison and price increases supported topline growth. Economic Times cited sugar, edible oils, packaging and freight as cost pressures. ICICI Direct flagged elevated crude derivatives and other input prices as risks to EBITDA margins for home- and personal-care companies. Economic Times’ October 12 preview and ICICI Direct’s October 2026 sector preview cover these risks.
- Food commodities: Sugar and edible oils can affect food businesses; the previews specifically noted sugar and palmolein for Britannia.
- Crude-linked costs: Crude derivatives can pressure home- and personal-care margins.
- Other operating costs: Packaging and freight were among the costs cited by Economic Times.
- Company-specific factors: Copra costs and product mix were relevant to ICICI Direct’s Marico outlook; coffee prices and cost efficiency featured in brokerages’ Nestlé India expectations reported by Business Standard.
- Pricing and mix: Price increases can support revenue, but the eventual effect on profit depends on costs and what consumers buy.
Economic Times expected about 20% revenue growth for Nestlé India, low double-digit growth for HUL and strong double-digit growth for Britannia. These are its reported estimates, not a combined consensus with HDFC Securities or ICICI Direct. Different coverage universes, assumptions and measures help explain why previews do not always match.
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How to judge the outlook after results
To assess whether a company delivered a good quarter, look beyond its headline sales-growth percentage. Compare the underlying drivers and the conversion of sales into earnings.
- Check volume against price and mix. A company can grow revenue through more units sold, higher prices or a richer product mix. Where brokerages separated these drivers, as they did for Nestlé India and Marico, compare them rather than treating revenue growth as proof of stronger demand.
- Put revenue beside EBITDA and PAT. Sales can rise while operating margins or profit fall. Compare the reported result with the specific brokerage forecast for that measure, not with the sector’s 12% revenue estimate.
- Identify the cost exposure. Match the company’s input risks—such as sugar, edible oils, crude derivatives, packaging, freight, copra or coffee—to management commentary and reported margins.
- Separate geographies where disclosed. Domestic and international growth can differ materially; Nestlé India’s preview, for example, separated domestic growth from expected international growth.
- Account for the comparison base. A soft or weak year-ago quarter can make this quarter’s percentage growth look stronger; a high base can make growth harder to achieve.
- Treat target prices as dated estimates. The October 7 target-price and implied-upside calculations were anchored to prices at that time. They are not current market prices, realized returns or assurances of future performance.
Could these stocks gain after Q2 results?
The previews identify companies analysts considered worth watching, but they do not establish which shares will rise after results. Even a company that beats a revenue forecast may disappoint on profit, margins, volume or guidance; share prices also depend on expectations already reflected in the market price. Bikaji Foods illustrates the uncertainty: HDFC Securities included it among preferred names and reported a ₹700 target while forecasting a 15% adjusted PAT decline. That combination is an analyst’s risk-and-valuation judgment, not evidence of a certain gain.
All company growth, margin and earnings figures in this article are pre-results forecasts published in October 2026. Actual results, management commentary, commodity costs, market prices and analyst estimates can change the picture. The available previews do not establish actual Q2 FY27 results or subsequent share-price performance.
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