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Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on October 1, 2026, that she currently estimates the federal funds target range needs to rise by another 50 basis points or more. That is Logan’s personal assessment—not an FOMC decision, a committee commitment or a timetable for future moves.
What did Logan say about further rate increases?
In prepared remarks at the Dallas Fed’s Voices of the Eleventh District event, Logan said: “I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals.” The September 2026 FOMC meeting had raised the target range by 25 basis points, according to her remarks. She did not specify the range’s resulting endpoints or say when another increase should occur. Read Logan’s prepared remarks.
The Dallas Fed notes that the views in the speech are Logan’s own and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Federal Reserve System. Her estimate should therefore be read as one policymaker’s view of the appropriate policy path, not as a prediction of what the committee will decide.
Why does Logan think policy needs to become more restrictive?
Inflation remains above the Fed’s goal
Logan said inflation was declining but trending toward the mid-2% range, still above the FOMC’s 2% goal. She described roughly the preceding half-decade of above-target inflation as a serious strain on household budgets. In her view, without enough policy restraint, inflation would likely remain above target.
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Growth and spending have been resilient
Logan characterized economic growth as strengthening and consumer spending as resilient. Those conditions, alongside inflation above target, led her to judge that the current policy stance was not restrictive enough. She said further increases would at minimum reverse the risk-management cuts made the previous autumn; she did not present that as a complete rate path.
The labor market looked balanced
Logan cited an unemployment rate of 4.1%, which she described as close to most estimates of the lowest sustainable level. Her assessment paired a balanced labor market with inflation still above goal: policy, she argued, needed to address both parts of the Fed’s dual mandate—maximum employment and stable prices.
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Could rising yields reduce the number of Fed increases needed?
Yes, potentially. Logan also pointed to significantly higher long-term yields. Market contacts linked the rise to expectations of stronger nominal growth and a higher neutral interest rate; model decompositions also attributed some of it to higher term premiums, as well as higher risk-free rates. She cautioned that these decompositions rely on models and subjective judgments.
Higher long-term yields can tighten financial conditions even without another change in the federal funds target. Logan put the offset this way: “But higher term premiums can slow the economy, reducing the need to tighten monetary policy.” This was a conditional possibility, not her conclusion that additional increases were unnecessary. Her overall estimate still called for 50 basis points or more, while recognizing that financial conditions could affect how much further policy needed to move.
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Did Logan give a target rate or a schedule?
No. Logan did not name an exact terminal rate—the level at which increases would stop—or provide a schedule for reaching a more restrictive stance. She said: “The level of the fed funds target range that creates some restriction is uncertain. It changes over time and depends on the broader financial environment.”
She said she would assess labor-market conditions, prices, growth, consumption and financial conditions. Those factors matter because the amount of restraint needed depends not only on the policy rate but also on how financial markets and the wider economy are evolving.
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What Logan’s estimate does—and does not—establish
- It establishes: As of her October 1 remarks, Logan personally estimated that another 50 basis points or more was needed to balance the outlook and risks for the Fed’s goals.
- It does not establish: That the FOMC had adopted that estimate, that it would deliver a particular number of increases, or that rates would rise on a specific timetable.
- It leaves open: How much additional tightening would be appropriate if elevated long-term yields slowed economic activity or changed financial conditions.
The Dallas Fed’s archive lists the October 1 event and distinguishes it from Logan’s other appearances: Dallas Fed speeches by Lorie Logan.
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