EUROFER’s September 2026 outlook forecasts EU apparent steel consumption to grow just 0.1% in 2026, then 2.3% in 2027. That would be a rebound, not a full recovery: consumption is still expected to be about 7 million tonnes below its 2019 level in 2027. Construction is supporting the near-term outlook, while automotive output is still forecast to decline in 2026; the broader recovery across steel-using sectors is expected in 2027.
What the latest EU steel-demand forecast says
EUROFER’s Q3 2026 Economic and Steel Market Outlook, published in September and summarized in an October 1 release, projects apparent steel consumption growth of 0.1% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The October release describes the outlook as a modest improvement and says demand would remain roughly 7 million tonnes below 2019 levels in 2027. EUROFER’s October 1, 2026 release gives the headline forecast and the comparison with 2019.
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These percentages refer to apparent steel consumption, a market-consumption measure—not the volume produced by EU steel mills. It should also not be conflated with real steel consumption or EUROFER’s SWIP indicator, which measures output across steel-using sectors.
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The growth forecast starts from a depressed market. Even after the projected 2027 increase, apparent consumption is expected to remain about 7 million tonnes short of 2019. The outlook therefore signals improvement from a weak base, not a restoration of pre-pandemic demand.
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EUROFER also reports that EU crude steel production reached 125.8 million tonnes in 2025, which its Q3 outlook describes as a record low. This is a production figure, not a consumption forecast, and should be read as context for the condition of the industry rather than as a proxy for demand.
How construction and automotive fit into the outlook
Construction and mechanical engineering support 2026
EUROFER identifies construction and mechanical engineering as sources of support for steel demand in 2026. Separately, it forecasts output across steel-using sectors (SWIP) to rise 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. Those SWIP rates measure activity in steel-consuming industries; they are not apparent steel-consumption growth rates.
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Automotive is still a near-term headwind
The Q3 outlook forecasts automotive output to fall a further 0.9% in 2026. It would therefore be inaccurate to describe the auto sector as already performing strongly. EUROFER’s October summary points instead to a broader recovery in steel-using sectors in 2027; it does not make the automotive forecast interchangeable with the steel-demand forecast.
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Forecasts are snapshots, and the estimate shifted over the year. EUROFER’s March 2026 Q1 outlook projected apparent-consumption growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. Its June Q2 release put those figures at 0.4% and 2.2%. The later Q3 outlook revised them to 0.1% and 2.3%.
| EUROFER forecast vintage | 2026 apparent-consumption growth | 2027 apparent-consumption growth |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026, published March 2026 | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| Q2 2026, published June 2026 | 0.4% | 2.2% |
| Q3 2026, published September 2026; latest located outlook | 0.1% | 2.3% |
The comparison shows how new data and changing assumptions can alter the outlook. Use the Q3 figures as the latest located estimate, and identify the report quarter when citing earlier numbers. The earlier reports’ comparisons with pre-pandemic levels are not directly interchangeable with the Q3 figure of about 7 million tonnes below 2019 in 2027.
Risks that could limit the rebound
EUROFER points to elevated energy costs, weak manufacturing, and uncertainty around global trade and geopolitical tensions as pressures on investment and industrial activity. Its Director General, Axel Eggert, said in the October 1 release: “Modest improvements in demand should not be mistaken for a genuine recovery. Manufacturing remains weak, energy costs remain elevated, and uncertainty linked to global trade and geopolitical tensions continues to weigh on investment and industrial activity.”
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Trade figures in the Q3 outlook also show a difficult backdrop: EU steel exports to third countries fell 20%, or 14 million tonnes, in the first half of 2026. In the same period, total imports were 34 million tonnes, including 26 million tonnes of finished products, following a 5% decline. EUROFER reported capacity utilization at 67% in May 2026, compared with 65% in 2025. These are indicators of production and trade conditions, not alternative measures of apparent consumption.
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- For expected market demand, use the apparent-consumption forecast: 0.1% growth in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027 in EUROFER’s Q3 2026 outlook.
- For output across steel-using industries, use SWIP: 1.5% growth in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027 in that same outlook.
- For sector direction, note that construction and mechanical engineering support the 2026 picture, while automotive output is still forecast to decline in 2026.
- For context, the 2027 consumption level is still expected to be about 7 million tonnes below 2019.
Keeping the measure and forecast vintage attached to each number avoids treating unlike indicators—or an earlier estimate—as the same claim.
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