Researchers have mapped potential climatic refuges in Panama where seasonal conditions may make severe chytrid fungus infections less likely while remaining suitable for harlequin toads. The maps identify candidate locations for conservation work—not places proven free of the fungus, or evidence that the frogs have recovered. Surveys are underway, and future release trials are intended to test whether the modeled refuges help frogs survive.
What researchers found in Panama
A 2026 study by researchers at the Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute modeled seasonal conditions across the historical range of harlequin toads. The models combine disease suitability with local conditions to rank possible release locations and help locate surviving wild populations. The Smithsonian’s account of the study describes the results.
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At sites where most of the studied harlequin toad species persist, more than 80% of seasons were modeled as unsuitable for medium- and high-intensity infections. That is a seasonal suitability finding: it does not mean that more than 80% of frogs are saved, or that those sites are fungus-free. The fungus occurs across almost all of the genus Atelopus’ historical range, but the expected severity of disease varies.
The only species the 2026 account reports at sites suitable for the disease is the variable harlequin toad, Atelopus varius. The study authors say this is consistent with the possibility that the species evolved some resistance to chytrid. It is a possible explanation, not proof of a specific resistance mechanism or a guarantee of protection.
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How chytrid affects harlequin toads
The pathogen is Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which causes chytridiomycosis. According to the Smithsonian account, Bd has spread through Central and South America since the 1970s. Temperature and humidity influence disease suitability and severity, so researchers modeled how those conditions vary by season rather than treating risk as constant year-round.
A location modeled as less suitable for severe infection may still contain Bd. The maps estimate environmental suitability; they do not establish whether individual frogs are infected, how many frogs live at a site, or whether a released population would persist there. Those questions require field evidence and monitored trials.
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What field surveys and DNA tests add
A separate peer-reviewed study published in 2025 developed and validated environmental DNA (eDNA) assays for three imperiled species—Atelopus varius, A. zeteki and A. chiriquiensis—and used them alongside a Bd assay in Panamanian rainforest streams. The study confirmed Atelopus at sampled locations across three regions, detected Bd DNA at most historical sites, and found that the Panama Bd samples belonged to the Global Panzootic Lineage. Its findings are summarized in the study’s publication record.
Water-sample Bd concentration correlated with stream characteristics and the local amphibian-community pathogen load. eDNA can help researchers survey rare hosts and pathogens without capturing the animals, but detecting DNA in a water sample is not a census of living frogs and does not by itself show that frogs at that site are sick or recovering.
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How the maps could guide conservation
The models are intended to help researchers compare candidate sites using several kinds of evidence:
- Seasonal Bd suitability: whether conditions are modeled as suitable for infection, and at what intensity.
- Habitat fit: whether the site’s habitat is suitable for the target Atelopus species.
- Evidence of persistence: whether field surveys indicate that frogs already live there.
- Ability to monitor releases: whether researchers can track outcomes and test the refuge hypothesis.
Researchers have begun surveying candidate locations for habitat suitability and possible release trials. Senior author Brian Gratwicke said the maps give conservationists a way to rank potential release sites. Study co-author Roberto Ibáñez said future trials will allow the team to test the climate-refugia hypothesis experimentally. Until those trials produce results, the maps should be treated as a planning tool, not proof that a release will succeed.
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Why climate change is not automatically good news
The models also project that some places currently suitable for Bd could become unsuitable in coming years. That possibility does not make climate change a conservation solution: harlequin toads adapted to cooler mountain habitats could be harmed as conditions change. The study identifies potential shifts in disease suitability, not a guarantee that new safe habitat will emerge or remain suitable for frogs.
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In May 2025, the Bezos Earth Fund announced a $2 million grant for a five-year regional Latin American amphibian initiative, the Atelopus Survival Initiative, involving the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and the Amphibian Survival Alliance, with the Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute collaborating. The announcement describes captive populations as part of broader efforts to secure amphibian futures; it does not establish that this grant funds every 2026 refuge survey or that any release has succeeded. See the initiative announcement.
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