El Niño does not automatically empty the ocean of sardines or mackerel. It changes sea temperature, upwelling, plankton and fish distribution; that can reduce recruitment in one stock, move fish away from a port, or briefly increase catches without improving the underlying population. Pacific sardines face the clearest documented U.S. supply vulnerability, while Pacific mackerel remain legally healthy but historically less abundant and more mobile.
What El Niño changes in the ocean
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in which surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm, disrupting weather patterns worldwide, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). For small pelagic fish, the important chain is local: warmer surface water can weaken or displace coastal upwelling, alter plankton communities and shift the temperature range where fish feed, spawn and survive.
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Those effects are not uniform. FAO’s 1950–2023 retrospective found that strong to extraordinary Eastern Pacific El Niño events affected marine fisheries in 11 of 19 FAO major fishing areas. An affected area may experience a changed species mix, a different fishing season or altered catchability rather than a total collapse. FAO also cautions that a short-term landing increase can reflect fish becoming easier to catch, not higher productivity or stronger recruitment.
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Pacific sardines: the sharper U.S. supply risk
Biology and habitat
Pacific sardine recruitment and biomass respond strongly to ocean conditions. In the California Current, changes in temperature, upwelling and plankton can affect the survival of young fish and the location of adult schools. NOAA’s Future Seas work projects sardine habitat and range shifting north as warming changes the ecosystem. A 2025 NOAA publication also reports that gradual warming and shorter marine heatwaves can redistribute sardine subpopulations and change their availability to fishing ports.
Management constraint
Most West Coast sardine fisheries have been closed since 2015 because estimated biomass fell below the current harvest-control-rule cutoff, NOAA Fisheries reported in 2023. That closure is a stock-management response, not proof that every sardine population worldwide is depleted. It does mean U.S. fleets have less legal access to Pacific sardines when an El Niño changes where fish occur.
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The result is a two-part vulnerability: the population must rebuild enough to clear the management threshold, and the fish must be in locations where vessels can find and land them. A temporary concentration near a port cannot by itself demonstrate recovery.
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Different status from sardines
Pacific mackerel are managed separately from the northern Pacific sardine stock. NOAA’s species profile says the 2023 assessment found Pacific mackerel were not overfished and were not subject to overfishing. The same profile says abundance remains historically low because of oceanographic conditions. “Not overfished” is therefore a legal stock-status finding, not a promise of plentiful landings or low prices.
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El Niño can move the fish
Adults migrate north in summer, and NOAA says that northerly movement is accentuated during El Niño events. Fleets may encounter mackerel farther north or outside their usual operating pattern, raising fuel, timing and access costs even if the regional stock remains harvestable. Movement also changes which ports and processors receive fish.
NOAA’s species profile records 3.3 million pounds of Pacific mackerel landed in 2024, valued at $800,000. Those are reported 2024 landings and value, not a global supply forecast. NOAA’s 2025 catch-only assessment covers biomass estimates and harvest guidelines for the 2025–26 and 2026–27 fishing years.
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Sardines and mackerel compared
| Question | Pacific sardine | Pacific mackerel |
|---|---|---|
| Primary biological response | Recruitment, biomass and habitat can shift with temperature, upwelling and plankton. | Short-term distribution and migration are especially important; northward movement is stronger during El Niño. |
| U.S. management status in the cited evidence | Most West Coast fisheries closed since 2015 after biomass fell below the harvest-control-rule cutoff. | 2023 assessment: not overfished and not subject to overfishing; abundance still historically low. |
| Immediate fleet issue | Fish may be outside areas where a fishery can legally operate, and rebuilding limits access. | Fish can shift away from customary ports, changing travel, timing and processing logistics. |
| Documented market exposure | Pacific sardines are exported largely for human-consumption canning. | Pacific mackerel supply Asian, European, Middle Eastern and Baltic human-consumption markets. |
| Time horizon | El Niño redistribution plus multi-year recruitment and warming trends. | Seasonal and El Niño movement plus longer-term low abundance and ocean conditions. |
How a regional shift reaches a can
Fishing, processing and trade connect a local ocean anomaly to a consumer product. If sardines are less available to a cannery, processors may receive fewer fish, source from another region or stock different pack sizes and species. Mackerel can follow a similar path through export markets serving Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Baltic region.
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Will canned fish become more expensive?
There is no authoritative single global price or shortage forecast in the available evidence. Retail prices depend on the stock and fishing area, management rules, catch timing, processing capacity, inventories, transport and exchange rates. El Niño can increase that exposure by making fish less predictable or moving them farther from a plant, but the direction and size of a price change are region-specific.
Can fishers switch from sardines to mackerel?
Sometimes, but not as a simple one-for-one substitution. A vessel may need different permits, quotas, gear, seasons, buyers or refrigeration arrangements. The two species can also be in different places at the same time: sardine recruitment and biomass may be weak while mackerel move north, or a mackerel school may be reachable while sardines remain below a harvest-control threshold.
Switching effort can also transfer pressure to another stock. Managers therefore evaluate stock assessments, catch limits and ecosystem conditions rather than treating a high catch of one species as evidence that the other has recovered.
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What the evidence does—and does not—show
- El Niño changes habitat, upwelling and food webs; “warmer water means fewer fish” is too simplistic.
- Pacific sardines show the clearest documented U.S. supply vulnerability because biomass has remained below the management cutoff and most West Coast fisheries have been closed since 2015.
- Pacific mackerel can be legally healthy while remaining historically less abundant and shifting geographically.
- A landing spike may reflect increased catchability rather than improved productivity, so it cannot by itself prove stock recovery.
- Regional fishery changes can reach canned and processed seafood through international trade, but they do not establish a uniform global shortage.
NOAA fisheries lead author Robert Wildermuth describes the management challenge this way: “The goal as climate change continues is to develop information and tools that help fishery managers stay on top of the changes.” Annie Yau of NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center similarly says managers are asking how to maintain sustainable fisheries while the environment changes.
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