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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11The newest official U.S. ecommerce estimate is $340.2 billion in seasonally adjusted sales for the second quarter of 2026. That is 12.2% higher than Q2 2025 and equals 17.1% of all U.S. retail sales. The estimate is preliminary, is not adjusted for inflation, and measures the way an order is placed rather than whether the customer paid online. Separate 2026 consumer research shows shoppers using AI assistants for product research, reviews and deals, while many still visit physical stores and remain concerned about data privacy.
The latest U.S. ecommerce sales statistics
The U.S. Census Bureau’s Q2 2026 quarterly retail e-commerce estimate is the most recent official sales measure available in the supplied material. It reports:
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| Measure | Q2 2026 figure | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Seasonally adjusted ecommerce sales | $340.2 billion | Preliminary estimate for April–June 2026, adjusted for recurring seasonal patterns |
| Year-over-year change | 12.2% (±0.9 percentage points) | Compared with Q2 2025; the Census report documents sampling variability |
| Share of total retail sales | 17.1% | Seasonally adjusted ecommerce sales divided by seasonally adjusted total retail sales |
| Unadjusted ecommerce sales | $329.5 billion | Reported without seasonal adjustment; equals 16.4% of total retail sales |
Do not combine the adjusted dollar figure with the unadjusted share. They are different statistical series. Seasonal adjustment removes predictable calendar effects such as holiday shopping patterns; it does not remove the effect of inflation or otherwise convert nominal dollars into real purchasing power.
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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Census labels the Q2 estimate preliminary. Its sample-based estimates can be revised as additional information becomes available. The reported margin of error means that a small movement should not automatically be treated as a statistically certain change. For the adjusted year-over-year increase, Census gives a 12.2% estimate with a ±0.9 percentage-point sampling interval.
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What Census counts as ecommerce
The Census Bureau’s definition is based on how the customer places an order or negotiates its price and terms. A sale qualifies when that process occurs through an internet site, mobile device, extranet, electronic data interchange (EDI), email or a comparable online system. The payment itself may occur online or offline. For example, an order placed through a website and paid for when collected in a store can still be ecommerce under this definition.
Businesses included
The quarterly estimate covers retail businesses with paid employees. It is an employer-firm retail series, so it is not a complete census of every possible transaction by every type of seller.
Activities excluded from the retail ecommerce estimate
- Online travel services
- Financial brokers and dealers
- Ticket sales agencies
Those exclusions matter when comparing Census figures with a platform’s transaction volume or a broad “digital commerce” estimate. A marketplace, payment processor or analytics company may include services and business-to-business activity that Census does not include in this retail series.
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How large is ecommerce relative to all retail?
Using the seasonally adjusted series, online retail represented 17.1% of U.S. retail sales in Q2 2026. The unadjusted series puts the share at 16.4%. Both statements can be correct because they use different versions of the data.
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The percentage is a share of retail sales, not a share of all consumer spending. Housing, health care, restaurants, travel and many other expenditures are outside the retail denominator or treated differently. It also does not mean that 17.1% of households shop online, nor that 17.1% of purchases are delivered to homes. It is a dollar-sales ratio for the Census retail categories and period.
NRF’s $5.6 trillion forecast is not an ecommerce total
The National Retail Federation forecasts $5.6 trillion in total U.S. retail sales in 2026, representing 4.4% nominal growth. This is an annual industry forecast for combined online and store purchases, not a forecast of ecommerce sales alone.
NRF’s core retail definition includes online and physical-store purchases while excluding auto dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. That scope differs from Census’s employer-firm quarterly ecommerce series, so dividing the $5.6 trillion forecast by the Q2 ecommerce figure would produce a meaningless comparison. The Census number is a quarterly government estimate; the NRF number is an annual forecast covering a different retail perimeter.
NRF says its forecast assumes tariffs remain close to the levels known when it was prepared. The organization cautions that substantially higher tariffs or prolonged trade-policy uncertainty could weaken hiring, equity markets and consumer spending. It also says geopolitical uncertainty was too high to incorporate into the forecast at that time. These are assumptions and limitations, not guarantees about the eventual 2026 result.
What shoppers say they are doing in 2026
NRF and IBM published proprietary consumer research on January 7, 2026, based on responses from 18,000 consumers globally. These are survey findings: they describe what respondents reported, not verified transaction records or the percentage of all purchases influenced by each behavior.
| Reported behavior | Share of respondents | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Use AI assistants to research products | 41% | Respondents said AI helps them gather product information before buying |
| Use AI assistants to look for reviews | 33% | Reported use for finding or evaluating reviews |
| Use AI assistants to search for deals | 31% | Reported use for discounts, lower prices or promotions |
| Still shop in physical stores | 72% | Shows that store visits remain common among surveyed consumers |
| Comfortable sharing data | 52% | General comfort reported in the survey context |
| Share overlapping privacy, misuse or unwanted-marketing concerns | 83% | Concerns are not mutually exclusive categories |
| Trade down to budget alternatives | About one-third | Reported price sensitivity, alongside selective willingness to pay more |
The percentages do not describe mutually exclusive groups. A person can use an AI assistant, shop in a store, share some data and still worry about privacy. Likewise, “use AI for reviews” does not establish that an AI-generated recommendation led to a completed order.
AI is becoming a discovery layer
The 41% research figure, 33% review figure and 31% deal-search figure point to different stages of shopping. Product research is broad discovery; review searches are an evaluation step; deal searches are price-oriented. Retailers and publishers should therefore avoid treating “AI shopping” as one single behavior. Measurement should specify whether it covers discovery, comparison, recommendation, checkout or customer service.
Stores remain part of the journey
With 72% of surveyed global consumers saying they still shop in stores, the findings support an omnichannel interpretation rather than an online-versus-offline replacement story. A shopper might discover an item through an AI assistant, inspect it in a store, then order online, or reverse that sequence. The survey does not quantify how often each path occurs.
Price pressure and selective trust
About one-third of respondents reported trading down to budget alternatives. The same study describes selective indulgence and a willingness to pay more for trusted brands. That combination signals a conditional consumer: price matters, but trust and perceived value can justify a premium. It should be presented as a pattern in this sample, not as a universal rule for every market or income group.
Privacy is a conversion issue
More than half of respondents said they were comfortable sharing data, yet 83% reported overlapping concerns about privacy, misuse and unwanted marketing. The two results are not contradictory. Consumers may accept data sharing when the purpose and benefit are clear while objecting to opaque collection, resale or excessive messaging. The survey does not specify a single privacy threshold that applies to all respondents.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to compare the 2026 figures correctly
Before placing two statistics in the same chart or sentence, check five dimensions:
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- Geography: Census figures cover U.S. retail sales; the NRF/IBM behavior study covers global respondents.
- Measure: Census reports dollar sales and retail share; NRF reports a forecast growth rate; the survey reports self-described behavior.
- Period: Q2 is a quarterly actual estimate, the $5.6 trillion figure is an annual 2026 forecast, and the consumer findings were published January 7, 2026.
- Adjustment: The Census sales estimate is seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted. The unadjusted series should be kept separate.
- Scope: Census uses an employer-firm retail series and an order-method definition; NRF’s forecast uses core retail categories; the survey represents its 18,000 respondents.
A sound comparison labels all five dimensions. For example, “U.S. seasonally adjusted Q2 ecommerce sales rose 12.2% year over year” is a government estimate. “Forty-one percent of surveyed global consumers reported using AI assistants for product research” is a survey result. Neither should be rewritten as a universal statement about every shopper or every sale.
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What these statistics do—and do not—say about inflation
The Census dollar estimates are nominal. Because they are not adjusted for price changes, a rise in sales dollars can reflect a combination of more units, higher prices, or both. The 12.2% year-over-year increase should therefore not be described as a 12.2% increase in the quantity of goods purchased.
The 17.1% share is also a nominal sales share. It indicates how online retail dollars compare with total retail dollars under the same adjusted series; it does not measure delivery volume, order frequency, website visits or the number of online shoppers.
Global ecommerce context and the remaining data gap
The available 2026 material supports a global consumer-behavior picture through the NRF/IBM survey, but it does not establish a comparable official global retail ecommerce sales total or global online share for 2026. Do not substitute a global business-to-business digital-commerce value, a platform’s gross merchandise volume or an older commercial forecast for that missing measure. Those figures would use different definitions, dates and scopes.
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Quick Recap
Practical checklist for using ecommerce statistics in a report
- Label Q2 2026 Census sales as preliminary and seasonally adjusted.
- Keep the $340.2 billion adjusted figure separate from the $329.5 billion unadjusted figure.
- Include the ±0.9 percentage-point qualification when presenting the 12.2% year-over-year change.
- State that Census sales are nominal and not inflation-adjusted.
- Explain that ecommerce is identified by the order or negotiation method; payment can be online or offline.
- Do not present NRF’s $5.6 trillion total-retail forecast as ecommerce revenue.
- Identify NRF/IBM percentages as self-reported responses from 18,000 global consumers, published January 7, 2026.
- Do not add survey percentages together or treat them as verified purchase shares.
- Specify geography, period, scope and adjustment whenever two statistics appear together.
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