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Why does Roy see a possible RBI rate hike?
In a Moneycontrol interview published October 5, 2026, Roy said India’s external environment had become less supportive. He pointed to manageable August–September consumer price index (CPI) prints but higher forward risks, particularly from oil. He also interpreted RBI liquidity absorption as a sign of a shift toward pre-emptive tightening.
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Roy put the condition plainly: “Hence, a rate hike in the coming months is a meaningful possibility, especially if the oil inflation scenario sustains.” He added: “However, we believe that this looks like a shallow hike cycle as of now.” Both statements are his assessment, not RBI guidance. He said a reversal in the conflict situation would weaken the case for hikes.
What would make the outlook change?
The interview’s scenario turns on whether oil-related inflation pressure persists, how the conflict evolves and whether liquidity absorption and domestic financial conditions continue to tighten. These are factors in Roy’s outlook, not a published RBI decision rule.
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- Persistent oil pressure: Roy sees this as the condition that could make a hike in coming months more likely.
- Easing conflict: In his view, it would reduce the need for hikes.
- Liquidity and financial conditions: He cites RBI liquidity absorption as a pre-emptive tightening signal; the interview does not establish what the RBI will decide at a particular meeting.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation catalogue lists the provisional August 2026 CPI release as issued on September 14. CPI measures changes in household retail prices and is used as an indicator for inflation targeting and price stability. That catalogue entry does not establish a September 2026 CPI reading, so no September rate can be inferred from it.
How do higher global yields affect the risk picture?
Roy linked higher bond yields to inflation, oil, fiscal deficits, bond issuance and term premiums. The interview reported his approximate 10-year yield figures as follows; these are interview figures, not live quotes or independently verified market data.
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| Market | 10-year yield cited by Roy |
|---|---|
| United States | About 5.3% |
| United Kingdom | About 5.35–5.40% |
| Japan | Around 3% |
| India | Above 7% |
For India, Roy said government-security yields above 7% were already tightening financial conditions through domestic bonds, the rupee and the cost of capital. Higher yields can weigh on equity valuations, he cautioned, but stronger nominal growth can also support earnings. He also flagged a potential vulnerability for highly leveraged AI companies if borrowing costs rise while the returns on large capital spending remain uncertain.
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The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026. That move is an official decision. The FOMC’s projections are different: they record individual participants’ assessments of appropriate policy under their own assumptions, not a binding promise of future rate increases.
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Roy read the September projections as showing that 16 of 18 participants anticipated at least one further 25-basis-point hike after September, with four anticipating two. That is his interpretation of the projections as reported in the interview; it should not be read as a commitment by the FOMC. Roy said US inflation remained above a comfortable level and pointed to energy costs as a risk.
What does Roy say about foreign investment in India?
Roy described foreign investor interest in India as interrupted rather than fundamentally impaired over the long term. In his account, growth elsewhere—particularly in East Asian economies benefiting from artificial intelligence—has competed for capital. Perceived disruption to India’s established IT-services industry and elevated valuations in parts of the domestic market, supported by retail demand, have also weighed on growth-focused flows.
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Roy said foreign institutional investors had sold more than around US$50 billion in India’s secondary market over the previous two years, while redirecting a significant portion of capital to primary-market investment. The figure and explanation are from his Moneycontrol interview; they are not independently validated here. He said a reversal in the US AI trade could broaden global capital flows, but sustained interest in India would also depend on relative earnings growth, valuations and macroeconomic conditions.
Why does Roy see mixed signals for gold?
Roy identified higher inflation, rate expectations, real yields and a stronger dollar as near-term headwinds for gold. He said real rates had risen roughly 40 basis points in three weeks, describing it as one of the sharpest moves over such a period. That figure is interview-reported, not independently verified. His point is that inflation alone does not ensure a gold rally: real rates, the dollar and growth also matter.
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At the same time, Roy said geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns and a shortage of compelling alternatives could support gold ownership. He interpreted the September pullback after August’s rally as a response to changing Federal Reserve expectations and softer ETF flows, rather than evidence of weakening fundamental demand. These are market views, not individualized investment advice.
What is Roy’s outlook for mid-cap earnings?
Roy expects mid-cap earnings growth to outpace large-cap growth over the next four quarters, with new-age digital businesses, financials and metals among possible drivers. For newer digital companies, he expects a potential shift from cumulative losses in FY26 toward breakeven and profits as operating leverage and unit economics improve. These are forecasts, not reported earnings results.
Is Roy still bullish on the AI technology cycle?
Roy’s long-term view remains bullish, but he expects volatility. His assessment rests on three questions:
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- Returns on investment: Whether large language model companies can generate sufficient returns and repay heavy investment amid high capital needs and uncertain unit economics.
- Timing of market expectations: Whether investors are overestimating AI’s near-term impact while underestimating its longer-term change.
He sees leverage and the cost of substantial capital spending as risks. A major breakthrough, in his view, would be visible if the industry’s profit pool shifted from chipmakers toward AI companies or application-layer businesses.
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