CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin’s current bull cycle to rise about 3–5x rather than repeat a 10x-plus parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market. That is an attributed forecast—not a confirmed market outcome or a price target. The available reporting does not specify the low used as the starting point or give a fixed BTC price or timeline.
What Ki Young Ju is forecasting
In a post dated September 22, 2026, Ki Young Ju wrote: “I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.” Bitcoin Foundation reproduced the statement in its September 23 report.
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The forecast describes the potential scale and shape of a cycle: a more restrained advance than the largest past rallies, then a less severe downturn. It does not establish that the bull market has begun, nor does it guarantee that the projected advance or milder bear market will happen.
Why he expects a less extreme cycle
Ju’s thesis is that Bitcoin’s larger market and growing institutional ownership—including ETF and custody flows—may dampen volatility in both directions. In that view, more capital entering the market can support growth, while each additional dollar may move the price less than it did in earlier, smaller cycles.
#1 Best Overall
A Bitcoin Magazine interview listing published October 5, 2026, frames the discussion around institutional flows and volatility and lists topics including ETF cost basis, realized capitalization, Coinbase flows, whale selling and the four-year cycle. The interview page itself was not accessible in the reporting reviewed, so its chapter list and summary do not independently verify details beyond the visible listing. The listing’s “Bull Run Has Started” language is a market-regime characterization, not proof that Ju’s projected advance will occur. Bitcoin Magazine interview listing.
What the cited on-chain indicators say—and what they do not
Bitcoin Foundation’s account attributes several interpretations to Ju’s model and analysis. These are indicators and readings of market structure, not guarantees of future price movement.
Rank #2
- MVRV: The report says MVRV remained above 1 in Ju’s model during this cycle. In the report’s explanation, that means market value stayed above aggregate on-chain cost basis.
- CryptoQuant’s PnL Index: The report describes a less pronounced cycle pattern in the index, which tracks market profitability. A changed pattern may inform a cycle thesis, but it does not determine what price does next.
- Realized capitalization: Ju reportedly views its continued growth as evidence of capital entering Bitcoin. His interpretation is that each new dollar may have less price impact than in earlier cycles.
- Whales and futures positioning: The report says Ju considered early large holders to have stopped selling and futures traders to have increased long positions near a recent low. Wallet labels and derivatives measures depend on methodology; this does not show that every long-term holder has stopped distributing Bitcoin.
The underlying report cautions that on-chain measures do not guarantee future price action. Holder classifications, exchange-wallet attribution, derivatives positioning and profitability indices can be measured or interpreted differently. See the Bitcoin Foundation report for its account of Ju’s readings.
How the 3–5x outlook compares with a 10x-plus cycle
| Question | Ju’s moderated-cycle thesis | 10x-plus parabolic-cycle thesis |
|---|---|---|
| Upside scale | 3–5x, as Ju stated; the starting low is not specified in the accessible reporting. | 10x-plus is the scale of rally Ju says he does not expect this cycle. |
| Market structure | A larger market and greater institutional participation may dampen price swings. | A more extreme rally would imply a stronger parabolic move; the cited sources do not establish an independent competing forecast or its assumptions. |
| Downturn after the advance | Ju anticipates a milder bear market, without specifying its depth. | The cited sources do not provide a separate downturn forecast for this scenario. |
| Target and timing | No fixed price target, clearly defined starting point or fixed horizon appears in the accessible reporting. | No independent target or timetable is established in the cited sources. |
The comparison is between Ju’s forecast and the more extreme rally scale he rejects—not a contest between two independently documented analyst price targets.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the “bull run has started” wording
The phrase appears in CryptoQuant analyst-profile wording reported alongside Ju’s cycle outlook. It should be read as an attributed view, not as proof of a market regime change or evidence that the 3–5x outcome is underway. The accessible reporting does not establish a confirmation rule, such as a particular price level or indicator threshold, for declaring a bull market.
For context, a September 22, 2026 CoinNess report says Ju referred to historical crashes of around 80% when discussing earlier retail-dominated cycles. That figure characterizes past declines in his comparison; it is not a forecast, a floor on future losses or a measure of how mild a future bear market would be. CoinNess report.
Quick Recap
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What remains unspecified
- The base for the multiple: Reporting does not clearly define which cycle low anchors 3–5x. It would be misleading to turn the range into a target from today’s price.
- A price target: Ju’s reported statement gives a multiple, not a fixed future BTC price.
- A timetable: The accessible sources do not state when the advance should reach the projected range.
- Certainty: This is a forecast based partly on interpretations of flows and on-chain indicators. Those interpretations may be revised or disputed, and the metrics do not ensure a particular market outcome.
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