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It could take up to two years, Amin H. Nasser said—but only under a specific scenario: the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, confidence returns, and the market replenishes inventories while continuing to meet demand. The Aramco president and CEO made the estimate at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on October 5, 2026. It is his conditional assessment, not a guaranteed timetable or an independently verified market forecast.
What did Nasser say about the two-year timeline?
Nasser said pressure on the oil market would intensify until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened and confidence returned. He then said: “Even then, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years.” The condition matters: the estimate describes rebuilding stocks after those changes, while still supplying ongoing demand—not a promise that inventories will be restored exactly two years after any reopening.
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The remarks are in Aramco’s published text of Nasser’s October 5, 2026 speech. Reuters also reported the conditional estimate on October 5, 2026, in a story syndicated by Yahoo Finance: Reuters report on the estimate.
What inventory and supply figures did he cite?
Nasser said the world entered the crisis with almost 10 billion barrels of global oil stocks. He said nearly 3 billion barrels of gross oil supply had been lost and more than 1 billion barrels had been drawn from stocks to mitigate that loss. These are figures he presented in the speech, not independently audited totals.
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He also said less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remained, and that the vast majority was not practically available. He said most of the stock draw had come from onshore commercial inventories. That distinction is important: the less-than-6-billion-barrel figure is not a measure of oil that could all be released immediately to meet a shortage.
Nasser summarized the limits of emergency reserves this way: “Emergency reserves might buy us a winter. They cannot fix long-term supply.” The quote and the inventory figures appear in Aramco’s speech text.
How does this compare with Aramco’s earlier outlook?
Aramco’s Q1 2026 earnings-call script offered a different, earlier framing. The company said an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would still leave a period of months for market rebalancing, while a delayed reopening could push normalization into 2027.
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Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Those comments addressed rebalancing and normalization under scenarios discussed at the time. Nasser’s October speech addressed replenishing inventories while continuing to meet demand. The statements are not directly interchangeable, and the earlier guidance does not independently confirm the later two-year estimate. See Aramco’s Q1 2026 earnings-call materials.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the estimate does—and does not—establish
The two-year figure is Nasser’s conditional estimate. The cited speech does not independently establish the current global inventory total, how much oil is available for immediate use, or the assumptions about demand growth and post-reopening supply flows that produce the timeline. It should therefore be read as Aramco’s assessment, not as a consensus forecast or a verified countdown.
For readers, the key distinction is between reopening a route and restoring inventories: Nasser’s scenario assumes the route reopens and confidence returns, yet still allows for a prolonged rebuilding period because supply must also keep pace with demand.
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