A new Canadian scenario analysis estimates that an economy using much more electricity in transport, buildings and industry could produce $3.1 trillion in additional economic output over 2026–2050 and support about 1.6 million more jobs in 2050 than a business-as-usual path. Those are conditional differences between modelled scenarios—not guaranteed gains, and not a forecast of $3.1 trillion in extra output in 2050 alone.
What the $3.1 trillion and 1.6 million figures mean
Powering Canada’s Growth, released September 29, 2026, reports results from macroeconomic modelling by Open Insights, a consortium led by University of Victoria researchers. The report was published by New Economy Canada and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
- $3.1 trillion: cumulative additional economic output over 2026–2050, in real 2022 Canadian dollars, compared with the model’s business-as-usual scenario. It is not annual GDP in 2050.
- 1,606,250 jobs: the modelled difference in employment between scenarios in 2050, rounded to about 1.6 million. It is an endpoint estimate, not that many jobs added every year.
- $201.9 billion: additional output in 2050 alone in the report’s annual results. The report also gives average additional employment across the modelled years as approximately 975,000 a year, a separate measure from the 2050 endpoint.
The report states $5 in economic benefits for each $1 invested in the power sector. That is the report’s model-based benefit-to-investment result, not a guaranteed commercial return. The headline figures are all relative to a baseline; they do not mean Canada will automatically realize these gains.
What changes in the electrified-economy scenario
The analysis compares a business-as-usual case based on the Canada Energy Regulator’s Current Measures scenario with an electrified-economy case drawing on its Canada net-zero scenario, with adjustments described in the methodology and assumptions. Open Insights used CER energy scenarios as inputs and ran MacroABM-CA, an agent-based macroeconomic model covering Canada’s ten provinces.
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The central distinction is both more electricity generation and substantially greater use of electricity across the economy. The report’s 2050 comparison is:
| Measure | Business as usual | Electrified economy |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity demand in 2050 | 973 TWh | 1,316 TWh |
| Electricity share of total energy use in 2050 | 23.2% | 34.8% |
| Change in electricity demand from 2026 to 2050 | Up 50% | Up 102% |
In the electrified case, electricity use expands in transportation, buildings and industrial processes as well as through power-sector investment. The report says electricity currently supplies 18.2% of total energy use, rising to 34.8% in that scenario.
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Which sectors gain or lose in the model
The report’s sector figures use two different measures: cumulative output differences across 2026–2050 and employment differences in 2050. Its percentage changes show growth relative to each sector’s business-as-usual baseline. These are aggregate Canadian results; they do not establish that every worker or region benefits equally.
| Sector | Cumulative additional output, 2026–2050 | Additional jobs in 2050 | Output versus baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services | +$1.2 trillion | +866,000 | +3.8% |
| Construction | +$458 billion | +203,000 | +8.0% |
| Industry and manufacturing | +$486 billion | +247,000 | +6.8% |
| Power (electricity, gas and steam) | +$246 billion | +100,000 | +17.4%; jobs +50.0% versus baseline |
| Property and real estate | +$444 billion | About +20,000 | +4.8% |
| Fossil-fuel energy | −$381 billion | −40,000 | −6.4%; jobs −17.2% versus baseline |
Services account for the largest listed absolute output and employment gains, while power has the largest relative growth among these sectors. Construction also grows more quickly relative to its baseline than services. The model therefore points to both broad gains and a contraction in fossil-fuel energy relative to business as usual; it does not describe a uniform outcome across industries.
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What has to go right for the gains to materialize
The full result depends on conditions beyond simply adding generation. The model assumes growth in the labour force and that firms can secure capital more quickly. Its methodology says that without enough workers and financing, grid expansion would draw investment and labour away from other sectors, limiting wider growth.
The energy inputs also need qualification. CER scenarios use a November 2025 policy cutoff; the report team says it updated the scenarios for policy and project context through July 2026. The result is therefore based on a defined scenario set and subsequent adjustments, not on every possible policy, project or market development.
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- Data centres: The CER assumptions add 3.5 GW of data-centre demand by 2050 in both scenarios. The methodology characterizes this as materially below other estimates and below demand from projects already proposed. Higher realized demand could push electricity needs beyond the electrified scenario’s doubling.
- Supply chains: The CER scenarios do not provide a detailed supply-chain narrative. The model allocates these effects using historical input-output shares, so new Canadian clean-technology supply chains and project corridors could support more manufacturing and trade than the model captures.
- Exports and commodity markets: The model assumes no major expansion or contraction in export markets; much of the projected gain comes from investment, employment, household income and spending within Canada. Successful export diversification could add growth beyond the modelled results. International commodity demand is not set externally by the model, except that oil and gas assumptions align with CER scenarios; the model assumes excess production can be sold internationally.
How to interpret the report—and its recommendations
This is a scenario analysis published by organizations advocating an electrified economy, with modelling conducted by the named Open Insights initiative. It is useful for understanding how a high-electrification pathway might affect output and employment under the report’s assumptions, but it is not an independent guarantee that the outcomes will occur. The authors’ report page and methodology provide the underlying framing and qualifications.
The report recommends sustained political commitment and public investment across jurisdictions, mobilizing public and private capital, coordinated workforce development and stronger domestic supply chains. Its argument is that expanding electricity supply alone will not deliver the full gains if electrification, labour capacity and investment do not advance alongside it.
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At the May 2026 National Electricity Strategy announcement, Prime Minister Mark Carney said: “The path to affordability is electrification; the path to competitiveness is electrification; the path to net zero is electrification.” That statement expresses the policy case; the report’s numbers remain conditional model outputs rather than proof of realized affordability or competitiveness effects.
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