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What does the $22.6 billion forecast measure?
The figure is Novaspace’s projection for commercial satellite-service revenue serving defense and security customers by 2035. It is not a forecast of all military communications spending, satellite-manufacturing sales, or the value of government-owned systems. Novaspace published it in September 2026 as part of its Satellite Communications for Defense and Security, 2nd Edition release. Novaspace’s public release does not disclose detailed modeling assumptions or scenario ranges, so the estimate should be understood as the publisher’s forecast rather than an independently validated outcome.
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How does Novaspace expect revenue to change by orbit?
Novaspace attributes most projected growth to non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) services, while forecasting lower geostationary orbit (GEO) service revenue. Its figures are:
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|---|---|---|
| Total commercial defense and security satellite-service revenue | More than $22.6 billion by 2035 | Projected service revenue, not capacity demand. |
| NGSO service revenue | $21.3 billion by 2035; 34% CAGR | Novaspace’s projected NGSO revenue and compound annual growth rate. |
| GEO service revenue | $2.3 billion in 2025, declining to $1.3 billion in 2035 | Revenue is forecast to fall even as GEO capacity demand grows. |
| Global defense SATCOM demand | More than 7.5 Tbps by 2035 | A capacity-demand projection, distinct from service revenue. |
| GEO capacity demand | Triples, according to Novaspace | GEO is not forecast to disappear; the release does not state a comparable absolute capacity figure. |
Revenue and capacity can move in different directions: a forecast of lower GEO service revenue does not mean that defense customers stop using GEO capacity. Novaspace’s release does not provide enough detail to explain the pricing, utilization, or other model assumptions behind this divergence.
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Which regions are expected to account for the largest shares?
Through 2035, Novaspace projects that the United States will account for more than 50% of global defense SATCOM demand and 48% of revenue. It projects China at around 30% of each. These are regional shares in the publisher’s forecast, not reported market outcomes. Novaspace’s release describes analysis segmented by region, military force, orbit, and frequency band, but does not publish detailed scenario assumptions.
Why are defense buyers using commercial SATCOM?
Government procurement notices and company announcements show several routes for accessing commercial services, from purchase agreements to managed solutions and task orders. These examples illustrate how commercial capacity is being integrated; they do not measure total market spending or establish the accuracy of Novaspace’s 2035 estimate.
U.S. military branches: a Ku-band purchase agreement
On July 7, 2026, SES said its SES Space & Defense subsidiary won a five-year blanket purchase agreement intended to make Ku-band satellite services easier for U.S. military branches to buy. SES describes multi-operator network integration and access to its multi-orbit fleet. The announcement concerns a procurement vehicle, not a measure of market-wide expenditure. SES’s announcement.
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U.S. Marine Corps: a managed commercial service
On September 23, 2026, Viasat announced that its Inmarsat Government subsidiary received the MECS2 commercial SATCOM services contract for the U.S. Marine Corps. Viasat describes a managed solution involving multiple providers and orbits, with network and security operations support. Viasat’s announcement.
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U.S. Joint Force: a task order for OneWeb services
A SAM.gov procurement notice updated September 18, 2026 describes a task order for OneWeb services and control capacity under a proliferated LEO commercial SATCOM program. A task order is a distinct buying route from the blanket agreement and managed-service contract above. The SAM.gov notice.
France: commercial LEO alongside government systems
In June 2026, France’s Directorate General of Armaments said the Centaure contract integrates Eutelsat OneWeb into the armed forces’ satellite communications alongside Syracuse IV capabilities. This is an example of commercial and government capabilities being used in the same communications environment. France’s Directorate General of Armaments.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does commercial integration mean for resilience?
Novaspace Senior Manager Santiago Perez described distributed SATCOM architectures as improving military communications resilience against disruption, jamming, and kinetic attacks, and characterized the shift as a broader evolution in military communications. These are Perez’s attributed industry comments, not independently established technical findings. Novaspace’s release.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchOversight provides a useful qualification to the resilience case. The U.S. Government Accountability Office describes the Department of Defense approach as combining existing and planned government systems with commercial options in a department-wide SATCOM enterprise. It identifies alternate pathways as a possible resilience benefit and calls for regular reporting on implementation progress. Commercial access can contribute options, but integration and implementation remain matters to track. GAO’s assessment.
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How certain is the 2035 outlook?
The public release presents forecast figures and describes the report’s analytical coverage, but does not disclose detailed model inputs, assumptions, or scenarios. That limits what readers can conclude about the sensitivity of the estimate to changes in procurement, service pricing, adoption, or other factors. The contract examples show real forms of commercial procurement; none should be treated as proof that revenue will reach the forecast level.
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