Chainalysis estimates that at least $176.3 billion in crypto activity was attributed to China from July 2025 through June 2026, with domestic peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers accounting for 59.1% of that estimate. The figure describes attributed on-chain activity—not an official Chinese government statistic, a count of Chinese crypto owners, or proof that every transaction happened inside mainland China.
What does the $176 billion China crypto figure actually measure?
It is Chainalysis’s estimate of crypto activity attributed to China over a 12-month measurement period, July 2025 to June 2026. The firm describes the amount as at least $176.3 billion and says the true total could be higher. Because crypto activity is restricted, the company says attribution is difficult.
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This is an analytics estimate built from available blockchain data and attribution methods. It is not a government account of national crypto use, a survey of household holdings, or a measure of how much crypto people own. Nor does the estimate establish that all attributed activity physically took place in mainland China: wallet attribution does not by itself identify a user’s location, identity, or reason for transacting.
How much of the activity was peer to peer?
Chainalysis estimates that domestic P2P flows represented 59.1% of China’s crypto-economy total in the July 2025–June 2026 period. That share was 3.5 times the share in the prior period, according to the firm. In this context, P2P refers to transfers between wallets rather than activity routed through a centralized exchange.
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A separate metric tracks unique wallets sending stablecoin P2P transactions: Chainalysis reports that count grew 43-fold between Q1 2024 and Q2 2026. That is a change in wallet count across a different period, not a 43-fold increase in the $176.3 billion estimate or in the number of people using crypto. Wallets are not people; one person may control multiple wallets, and a wallet’s activity does not establish its owner’s location or identity.
How are people in China still using crypto if it’s banned?
Restrictions on covered business activity and continued on-chain transfers can coexist. Chainalysis attributes much of the estimated activity to wallet-to-wallet flows, while access to exchanges is restricted. P2P transfers can occur without the same exchange-based route, but the estimate does not establish who arranged them, what services were involved, or whether any particular transaction complied with applicable rules.
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China’s eight-agency notice of February 6, 2026, says virtual currencies do not have legal-tender status and that covered virtual-currency business activities conducted in China are illegal financial activities, strictly prohibited, and to be shut down. The notice names activities including fiat-to-crypto and crypto-to-crypto exchange, acting as a central counterparty, providing transaction-information intermediation or pricing, token issuance and financing, and virtual-currency-related financial-product transactions. It also bars financial institutions and non-bank payment providers from supporting such activity through accounts, transfers, clearing, or settlement, and restricts internet companies from providing online venues, promotion, or paid referrals. The CSRC-published notice states: “虚拟货币不具有与法定货币等同的法律地位。” Translation: “Virtual currencies do not have legal status equivalent to legal tender.”
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The notice continues a policy line formalized in earlier notices, including the 2021 notice, as officials explain in the February 6, 2026 Q&A. The listed prohibitions concern covered conduct; they should not be simplified into a claim that every individual holding or every transaction in every location receives identical treatment.
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Are Chinese users buying stablecoins peer to peer?
Chainalysis’s reported data are consistent with substantial stablecoin activity moving through P2P wallets. For its 2026 reporting period, the firm estimates that self-custodied stablecoin holdings turned over 33.2 times per year, compared with its 9.3-times global benchmark. It reports average holdings of $3.1 billion and $104.1 billion transferred across 18.1 million transactions in its China-attributed sample.
High turnover is consistent with stablecoins being used as working capital or settlement assets, which is Chainalysis’s interpretation of the flow pattern. It does not prove that stablecoins are widely accepted as domestic currency, identify what each transfer paid for, or establish that a given payment route is legal.
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The firm also reports that monthly incremental stablecoin P2P activity rose from roughly $240 million in March 2025 to nearly $5 billion about a year later, after increases in each of 13 consecutive month-over-month periods. Growth appeared across transaction-size bands. Those observations describe attributed flows; they do not reveal the users’ identities or motives.
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That causal claim is not established. Chainalysis notes that the increase in stablecoin P2P activity began around March 2025, when social-credit measures expanded into finance and the internet. It suggests that some people excluded from conventional financial services may seek alternatives, while others may prefer channels outside monitored banking or e-commerce systems. But the report calls the proposed connection a “working hypothesis.” Timing and correlation do not show that social-credit measures caused the growth.
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On-chain data can show transaction patterns, not why a person transacted or whether a specific policy prompted that choice. The same observed growth could reflect different users and purposes; the available figures do not settle those explanations.
What the estimate says—and what it cannot settle
The Chainalysis estimate points to persistent, heavily P2P-attributed activity despite restrictions on covered virtual-currency businesses. It does not show that the restrictions have no effect, that they caused activity to move to P2P channels, or that the estimate captures every China-related transaction.
A separate Chainalysis estimate says identified Chinese-language money-laundering networks processed $16.1 billion in inflows during 2025 across more than 1,799 active wallets. That is a measure of activity attributed to identified illicit services—not a component or correction to the $176.3 billion estimate, and not a proxy for ordinary P2P payments or all people in China.
The clearest reading is therefore limited but important: Chainalysis sees a large volume of crypto activity attributed to China, with P2P accounting for a majority of its estimate. The figures document activity that persists under restrictions; they do not establish its full scale, the motives behind it, or the policy’s causal effect.
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