China remained Southeast Asia’s largest infrastructure-financing partner in 2024, but commitments to new Chinese infrastructure projects appeared to have stalled for a third consecutive year. The distinction matters: spending on projects already under way can keep China in the lead even as the flow of new commitments slows.
China still leads regional infrastructure spending
The Lowy Institute reports that the six largest financiers accounted for 90% of Southeast Asia’s infrastructure spending in 2024. China made up about 31% of that spending in 2024. Across the period since 2015, its share was 39%.
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| Financier | Share of Southeast Asia infrastructure spending | Period |
|---|---|---|
| China | About 31% | 2024 |
| China | 39% | Since 2015 |
| Japan | 21% | Comparison reported by Lowy |
| Asian Development Bank | 17% | Comparison reported by Lowy |
| World Bank | 10% | Comparison reported by Lowy |
These are shares of infrastructure spending, not counts of newly signed projects or measures of commitments. They should not be read as interchangeable indicators. Lowy’s figures are reported in its 11 October 2026 article, “China remains largest infrastructure partner, but new project signings have stalled”, part of the 2026 Southeast Asia Aid Map Report.
Why the slowdown in new signings does not erase China’s lead
Project commitments and spending describe different stages of infrastructure finance. A commitment can signal support for a new project; spending can continue as an already committed project is built or financed. As a result, a slowdown in new signings does not immediately remove the contribution of legacy projects from spending totals.
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Lowy says commitments to new Chinese infrastructure projects appeared to have stalled for a third consecutive year, while existing projects helped sustain China’s position as the region’s largest partner. The article summary does not provide annual signing values, project counts, a country-by-country breakdown of the slowdown, or a precise operational definition of a new commitment. The three-year finding should therefore be understood as the article’s reported trend, not as a quantified count of projects.
Infrastructure remains central to China’s development finance
Almost 90% of China’s official development finance (ODF) spending in Southeast Asia in 2024 went to infrastructure, according to Lowy. The share differed by country:
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| Country | Infrastructure share of China’s 2024 ODF | Example cited |
|---|---|---|
| Cambodia | 64% | China provided $247.5 million in 2024 ODF for Phnom Penh airport. |
| Philippines | 100% | China provided $213 million in 2024 ODF for the Kaliwa Dam. |
| Myanmar | 55% | No project example stated in the article summary. |
These country percentages describe the infrastructure share of China’s ODF in 2024; they do not mean that China supplied the same share of each country’s total infrastructure financing. The project amounts are specific ODF figures cited by Lowy, not estimates of total project cost.
Why financing the region’s infrastructure needs remains difficult
Lowy puts Southeast Asia’s infrastructure financing gap at around $3.1 trillion when adjusted for climate impacts. Closing a gap of that scale depends not only on identifying projects but also on securing capital on terms and at a risk level that public and private funders can support.
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- Less concessional aid: Reduced aid has constrained the lower-cost capital used to make blended-finance structures viable.
- Weaker investor appetite: Economic and fiscal shocks have weighed on investors’ willingness to fund infrastructure projects.
The $3.1 trillion figure is the climate-adjusted regional gap reported by Lowy; it is not a measure of the amount China, or any single financier, is expected to provide.
Multilateral development banks could take a larger role
Multilateral development banks (MDBs) accounted for 32% of regional ODF infrastructure spending in 2024. Lowy also reports that MDB spending and commitments had increased since 2022, suggesting potential for these institutions to play a larger role as the financing landscape changes. The 32% figure is a share of ODF infrastructure spending, not the same measure as China’s overall share of regional infrastructure spending.
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What the trend says—and what it does not
Lowy’s authors interpret the slowdown as a more selective Chinese financing role: a shift away from ambitious megaprojects toward smaller projects that are easier to manage. That is their explanation of the pattern, rather than a separately established causal finding in the figures summarized here.
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