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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Steven McClurg, Canary Capital’s founder and CEO, predicts that a secular bond bear market could last more than 30 years and that the 10-year Treasury yield could reach 8% within four years. Those are forecasts reported by Benzinga on October 11, 2026—not established facts or a settled market consensus. If rates remain higher, REITs could face pressure through more expensive refinancing, lower property valuations and stronger competition from Treasury yields. But those channels do not guarantee that every real-estate investment trust or ETF will fall.
What McClurg forecast—and what remains uncertain
Benzinga reports that McClurg considers the 34-year bond bull market to have ended in 2016. He said, “A secular bond bear market will likely last for 30+ years. We are 10 years in already, as the yield has moved from 1.37% at the lowpoint in 2016,” and forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield could reach 8% within four years.
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These statements should be read as McClurg’s outlook, not as a verified path for interest rates. Benzinga’s account does not establish that the forecast is shared by other forecasters or independently verify the yield history underlying the quoted 1.37% figure. A bond bear market lasting decades is not a certainty, and the 8% target is a prediction rather than a current yield.
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How higher rates could affect REITs
REITs can be sensitive to interest rates for several different reasons. The effect on a particular company depends on its financing, properties and ability to generate rental income; a higher-rate environment does not produce an identical result across the sector.
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Refinancing and interest expense
A REIT that must refinance debt when borrowing costs are higher may face larger interest payments. That can leave less cash available for operations, investment or distributions. The exposure depends in part on when debt matures and whether it carries fixed or floating rates. A company with longer-term fixed-rate borrowing may be less immediately exposed to rising rates than a heavily leveraged company with near-term refinancing needs.
Property valuations and discount rates
Higher discount rates can put pressure on the values investors assign to future property income. That is a valuation channel, not a guarantee that every property’s market value will decline: rental growth, local conditions and property-sector fundamentals also matter.
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Competition for income
If Treasury yields rise, they may offer investors a more competitive alternative to REIT distributions. That could weigh on the appeal or market valuation of some REITs. The comparison is not simply a choice between two yields: REITs also carry property and business risks, while distributions and Treasury interest have different characteristics.
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Mortgage affordability and housing demand
McClurg also argued that higher mortgage rates could weaken housing demand, describing real estate as “probably the asset that will be most impaired” if rates rise and demand falters. The statement is his assessment, reported by Benzinga, rather than evidence that demand shortages will occur. Mortgage affordability is a possible channel, but its effect on a given real-estate business depends on its market and property exposure.
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VNQ, XLRE and REM represent different exposures
The three ETFs discussed in Benzinga’s article are examples of listed real-estate exposure, not funds McClurg specifically recommended. Their mandates differ, so the bond-bear thesis should not be treated as a single, uniform ETF trade.
| ETF | What it represents | Rate-sensitivity distinction |
|---|---|---|
| VNQ | Vanguard says the fund tracks a U.S. real-estate index that includes publicly traded equity REITs and other real-estate-related investments. Vanguard reported 140 holdings as of July 31, 2026, and a 0.13% expense ratio as of May 28, 2026. | A broad real-estate fund’s exposure includes property-owning companies and related investments; the effect of rates can vary across its holdings. |
| XLRE | State Street identifies XLRE as its Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF. Benzinga describes it as focused on real-estate companies in the S&P 500, a narrower universe than a broad real-estate fund. | Its narrower universe means it should not be assumed to have the same holdings or sector mix as a broad real-estate fund. State Street’s page includes performance data dated August 31, 2026. |
| REM | iShares says REM tracks U.S. REITs holding residential and commercial mortgages. | Mortgage REITs are distinct from companies that primarily own properties. Benzinga notes their sensitivity to funding costs, interest-rate spreads and mortgage-backed securities values. |
The VNQ holding count, fee and XLRE performance date above are dated figures, not permanent attributes. Holdings, expense ratios, benchmarks and performance can change; consult each issuer’s current fund materials before making a comparison. The available information does not support a current, like-for-like ranking of the three ETFs by cost, distributions, performance or overall rate risk.
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How to assess the risk without treating the forecast as a certainty
For an investor evaluating a REIT or real-estate ETF, the useful question is not simply whether rates will rise. It is how the underlying businesses might respond if borrowing costs stay elevated, and whether the fund’s exposure fits the investor’s goals and risk tolerance.
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- Check financing exposure in the underlying companies. Leverage, debt maturities and fixed-versus-floating borrowing help explain how quickly higher rates could affect interest costs.
- Consider rental demand and property sectors. Rental growth and property-specific conditions can influence the ability to absorb higher financing costs.
- Compare current fund materials on aligned dates. Review issuer fact sheets and prospectuses, using the same measurement periods for holdings, fees, distributions and returns. The figures cited here do not provide a complete, current comparison across all three funds.
- Separate a scenario from an outcome. A possible long-term rise in rates is a risk scenario to evaluate, not proof that a specific ETF will underperform.
McClurg’s warning is therefore most useful as a prompt to examine financing and income sensitivity—not as a standalone reason to predict a uniform decline in REIT ETFs. The outcome would depend on whether his rate forecast materializes and on the very different balance sheets, property exposures and fund mandates involved.
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