Australia’s Fire Danger Rating tells you how dangerous a bushfire could become if one starts, and how difficult it may be to control. It is a forecast—not proof that a fire is burning or approaching your property. Use the rating with current incident warnings, fire bans and your local bushfire plan.
The four ratings at a glance
| Rating | Official action message | What the forecast means | Practical response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate | “Plan and prepare.” | A fire could develop, but forecast conditions are at the lower end of the national rating scale. | Make or review your bushfire plan and identify where you will get local updates. |
| High | “Be ready to act.” | A fire would be more dangerous and potentially harder to control than under Moderate conditions. | Have your plan, people, pets, transport and essential items ready to put into action if conditions worsen or an emergency warning is issued. |
| Extreme | “Take action now to protect life and property.” | If a fire starts, it may spread rapidly, produce intense heat and be difficult to suppress. | Act on your household plan now and follow any location-specific advice from emergency services. |
| Catastrophic | “For your survival, leave bushfire risk areas.” | Fire behaviour could be exceptionally dangerous, with survival in the path of a fire potentially unlikely. | Leave bushfire-risk areas as directed by your plan and local authorities; do not assume defending a property is the default option. |
| No Rating | No proactive community action is required. | Conditions are not expected to threaten community safety in the way covered by the rating scale, but a fire can still start. | Continue ordinary awareness and check local information if you are in a fire-prone area. |
These are national action messages under the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS). They are not a substitute for an emergency warning, evacuation order, total fire ban or other instruction issued for your specific location.
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What a fire danger rating actually measures
A rating describes the potential behaviour of a fire if ignition occurs. Higher ratings indicate conditions in which a fire is expected to be more intense, spread faster, spot farther ahead or become harder for firefighters to control. The rating does not estimate the chance that a fire will start, count fires already burning or identify a particular property under threat.
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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallThe AFDRS was introduced nationally in September 2022 so that people travelling, living or working in different states and territories see the same four-level language. Ratings are issued for Fire Weather Districts and can be forecast up to four days ahead. Because weather and fuel conditions change, the forecast should be checked again rather than treated as a fixed prediction.
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How agencies set the rating
Weather and fuel inputs
State and territory fire agencies set the public rating using forecast weather and other relevant conditions. Inputs include temperature, relative humidity, wind, recent rain and the state of available vegetation, known as fuel. Dry grass, forest litter, heath and other fuels can support very different fire behaviour even under similar weather.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Fire Behaviour Index (FBI) is a modelled indication of potential fire behaviour on a scale from zero to 100 and above. Its category thresholds align with the public ratings:
| FBI value | Corresponding category |
|---|---|
| 0–11 | No Rating |
| 12–23 | Moderate |
| 24–49 | High |
| 50–99 | Extreme |
| 100 or above | Catastrophic |
These numbers are index thresholds, not percentages and not probabilities that a fire will occur. The underlying models estimate characteristics such as fire intensity, flame height, rate of spread and spotting potential. The Bureau describes models for eight major vegetation types: buttongrass, grassland, savanna, forest, mallee heath, pine, heathland and spinifex.
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Why the published rating may differ from the index
The FBI usually indicates the district’s rating, but a fire agency can publish a different category after considering local conditions and other operational information. Treat the rating displayed by the responsible agency as the public decision signal; do not try to replace it with a personal calculation from the index.
Why one district can contain different conditions
A district rating is a summary, not a claim that every address has identical danger. AFAC’s explanation, updated 28 May 2026, says the calculation analyses weather, fuel type and landscape information on a detailed grid. It then uses a 90th-percentile method designed to represent widespread higher-risk conditions rather than a single isolated extreme. Local variations, unusual terrain and pockets of elevated fuel conditions can still occur inside the same district.
Rating, warning, fire-weather warning and fire ban: the differences
| Information | Question it answers | Who provides it |
|---|---|---|
| Fire Danger Rating | How dangerous could a new fire be under the forecast conditions? | State or territory fire agency, using forecast and fuel information. |
| Australian Warning System incident warning | Is an emergency happening now, and what should affected communities do? | Emergency services, targeted to the communities involved. |
| Bureau fire-weather warning | Are forecast weather conditions likely to create dangerous fire weather? | Bureau of Meteorology. |
| Total fire ban or local restriction | What activities, such as lighting fires, are prohibited or restricted? | Relevant state or territory fire agency. |
A High or Catastrophic rating does not, by itself, mean a fire is approaching your home. Conversely, a lower rating does not cancel an incident warning for a fire already burning. Read the rating and the warning separately, then follow the most specific current instruction for your location.
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How to check the current rating and warnings
- Search your location in the Bureau of Meteorology’s Forecasts and Observations service or the BOM Weather app. Where available, the display shows the Fire Weather District rating alongside the district forecast.
- Check the relevant state or territory fire agency for the official district rating, active incidents, emergency warnings and evacuation information.
- Look for Bureau fire-weather warnings. These are commonly issued in the afternoon for the following day or early in the morning for the current day, and can be reviewed as conditions change.
- Check your state or territory agency for total fire bans and other restrictions. Never infer a ban solely from the colour or level of the rating.
- Recheck before travelling, starting outdoor work or making a decision to stay or leave. Forecasts, wind changes and incident boundaries can change during the day.
Keep notifications enabled for the official emergency channels used in your state. A district forecast is useful for planning, but an emergency warning targeted at your town or suburb takes priority.
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What each level means for household decisions
Moderate
Use Moderate days to do the work that is difficult during an emergency. Confirm who makes the leave decision, where you will go, how you will travel and what you will do with pets, livestock or people needing assistance. Make sure everyone knows how to receive local warnings. Moderate is not a guarantee that a fire will be harmless; it is the level at which the national message emphasises planning and preparation.
High
Move from planning to readiness. Check that vehicles are usable, phones and battery-powered devices can be charged, and essential medication, documents and water can be gathered quickly. Review weather updates and local agency information more frequently. If conditions deteriorate or an emergency warning is issued, you should be able to implement the plan without having to decide what it is for the first time.
Rank #4
Extreme
Extreme conditions call for immediate action under your plan, not passive observation of the rating. Remove avoidable delays: know your departure trigger, confirm the destination is outside the risk area and monitor official instructions. If you intend to defend a property, that decision must be based on a location-specific plan, capability and official advice; the national rating itself does not establish that defending is safe.
Catastrophic
The national message explicitly centres survival and leaving bushfire-risk areas. Do not wait for flames to be visible before acting on a plan that calls for early departure. Routes, destinations and timing differ by community, so use your local agency’s guidance rather than a universal distance or departure-time rule. If an emergency warning or evacuation instruction is issued, follow it immediately.
No Rating
No Rating is a white-bar state indicating that no proactive community action is required under the system’s criteria. It does not mean fires cannot start, nor does it rule out an incident, smoke or a local hazard. Continue to observe ordinary restrictions and use official incident information if a fire is reported.
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Why danger varies by season and region
There is no single national bushfire season. In information updated by the Bureau on 17 September 2026, peak periods are described as December to February for Victoria, Tasmania, southern New South Wales and most of South Australia. Other regions have different seasonal patterns, and the Bureau cautions that fire seasons can extend beyond the months shown on its map.
Weather can make vegetation grow and then dry out, lightning can ignite remote areas, and a wind shift can increase the size and direction of a fire quickly. A large fire may generate a pyrocumulonimbus storm; strong updrafts can make the fire hotter, drive rapid spread and produce unexpected direction changes. These processes explain why ratings combine weather and fuel information, but they do not replace the published rating or an active warning.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Reading a rating as an incident report: it forecasts potential fire behaviour, not the location of a current fire.
- Treating the district colour as your exact street-level condition: local terrain, fuel and weather can vary within a district.
- Assuming No Rating means zero risk: ignition and local incidents remain possible.
- Using the FBI as a probability: an FBI of 50 is not a 50% chance of fire.
- Assuming a rating automatically creates a total fire ban: restrictions are set separately by state and territory agencies.
- Waiting for a warning before preparing: the rating provides advance planning information, while warnings can arrive after an incident has begun.
- Following generic evacuation advice from another jurisdiction: routes, shelters, bans and triggers are location-specific.
A simple decision routine
- Before the season or on Moderate days: write down your leave and stay options, contacts, destination and transport plan.
- When the rating reaches High: make the plan executable by preparing people, animals, vehicles, medication and communications.
- On Extreme or Catastrophic days: act on the plan and monitor official updates continuously; do not rely on a single morning forecast.
- When an incident warning appears: stop interpreting the general rating and follow the warning’s instruction for your named community.
- After conditions change: check the latest agency update before returning, travelling through a fire area or assuming the danger has passed.
The AFDRS gives Australians a common language for potential bushfire danger. Its value is greatest when paired with current local warnings, restrictions and a plan made before smoke is on the horizon.
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