Most corporate economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer said the rise in U.S. borrowing costs since August was not large enough to cool inflation or slow economic growth. That is a survey judgment—not proof that higher rates have had no effect. The same respondents expected inflation to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and 84% anticipated one more quarter-point rate increase before 2027, according to CFO Dive’s Oct. 12, 2026 report.
What the survey says about borrowing costs and inflation
In the Wolters Kluwer survey as reported by CFO Dive, 59% of corporate-economist respondents said the increase in U.S. borrowing costs since August was too small to cool inflation or slow growth. The finding captures what those respondents believed; it does not establish how much monetary policy has affected the economy or whether additional rate increases will succeed.
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The report does not give the Wolters Kluwer survey’s sample size, field dates, question wording, or weighting method. Its percentages should therefore be read as reported survey results, not as a complete measure of economists’ views or an independently verified reading of economic conditions.
What economists expected for inflation and growth
Inflation was expected to remain above target
Respondents identified price pressures as the economy’s largest threat. They expected core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to edge up in the near term, ease slightly in the second half of 2027, and remain above the Fed’s 2% target. These are forecasts from the survey, not later observed inflation readings.
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Growth and business investment looked resilient
The surveyed economists raised their estimate for third-quarter GDP growth by 0.4 percentage point to 2.9%, citing stronger consumer spending and business investment. They also forecast business spending to grow at a 12.6% annual rate in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027. Those figures describe the panel’s expectations, not confirmed annual results.
The combination—persistent inflation concerns alongside stronger growth estimates—helps explain why respondents could see borrowing costs as insufficiently restrictive while also expecting economic activity to hold up. The survey does not, by itself, show that rate increases caused or failed to cause any particular growth or inflation outcome.
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What economists expected the Fed to do next
Wolters Kluwer survey respondents were asked about the outlook for policy: 84% expected one more 0.25-percentage-point federal-funds-rate increase before 2027. CFO Dive reported that the FOMC had raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point the previous month, to a 3.75%–4% range, with all 12 voting members in favor. It also said the Fed’s September projections showed a median rate path consistent with one additional quarter-point increase. These policy details are time-sensitive; the survey forecast should not be mistaken for a subsequent committee decision.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →In an Oct. 12, 2026 speech, Cleveland Fed President and CEO Beth M. Hammack said, “A restrictive monetary policy stance is appropriate to ensure a timely return to 2 percent inflation.” She also cautioned, “Explaining my reaction function is not a prediction for policy.” Hammack explicitly framed her views as her own, not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or her FOMC colleagues. Her remarks are conditional context, not an announcement of a committee decision. Read the full speech from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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What the survey says about AI and the economy
All surveyed economists expected AI initially to support GDP growth, while 83% expected AI adoption initially to add to inflation. The two responses are not contradictory: respondents saw potential for AI to expand economic activity and, at the same time, create near-term price pressure. The report does not quantify the expected size or duration of either effect.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How the separate NABE outlook differs
A separate National Association for Business Economics (NABE) panel forecast 2.1% GDP growth for 2026, 0.1 percentage point above its June forecast. Nearly half of NABE panelists did not expect the next downturn to begin before 2029. Eighteen percent identified a monetary-policy mistake as the leading downside risk—more than triple the earlier share, according to CFO Dive’s account of the survey chair’s remarks.
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NABE’s figures come from a different panel and are not a second measurement of the Wolters Kluwer survey. They offer another snapshot of expectations, with a lower 2026 growth forecast and concern about policy-related downside risk. CFO Dive quoted NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev as saying, “The mix of risks is shifting, however,” before describing the change in panelists’ leading downside risks.
Quick Recap
How to read the headline claim
- It is an opinion captured in a survey: 59% of Wolters Kluwer respondents judged the borrowing-cost increase insufficient to cool inflation or slow growth.
- It is not a verdict on policy effectiveness: the survey result does not prove that rate increases had no effect or that future tightening will fail.
- Forecasts are not outcomes: the inflation, GDP, business-spending, and rate figures describe expectations reported in 2026.
- The Fed’s next move was uncertain: the 84% figure is respondents’ expectation of another increase, not a guarantee of action.
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