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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Former Arkansas senator Blanche Lincoln warned in 2010 that event contracts could enable gambling. Ars Technica now reports that her firm lobbies for Kalshi, the prediction market, on event-contract regulation, and that Lincoln is reported to argue that sports event contracts can have commercial value beyond gambling.
The underlying question is still contested: whether sports and other event contracts listed on federally registered markets are derivatives under federal oversight, gambling under state and tribal rules, or both in some contexts. The positions below are the arguments made by the parties, not a ruling on that question.
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The 2010 warning and the reported change
Ars Technica reports that Lincoln’s 2010 comments warned that event contracts could enable gambling, and that those comments later figured in CFTC rulemaking discussions. The sources describe those comments as warnings. They do not describe a ban she sponsored or secured, so the phrase "tried to ban" goes further than the record the sources document.
The change Ars Technica describes is in her current argument: that sports event contracts can have commercial value beyond gambling. That claim sits in direct tension with the 2010 warning. The sources cited here do not include a direct quotation from Lincoln on the point, so the characterization of a changed position rests on the reporting.
Who is lobbying, and on what
According to Ars Technica, Lincoln’s firm lobbies for Kalshi, and the firm’s disclosures reportedly cover lobbying Congress and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on event-contract regulation. The reporting describes the firm’s work for Kalshi. It does not describe Lincoln’s own day-to-day lobbying, and it does not attribute to her any legal or regulatory position the company has taken.
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Ars Technica also cites an OpenSecrets estimate for 2026 of at least $3 million in lobbying and campaign contributions across federal and state levels. That is a report-attributed estimate, and the reporting does not present it as a total for Lincoln’s firm or for Kalshi alone.
Where the arguments diverge
The dispute turns on which framework governs sports and other event contracts: federal derivatives oversight, state and tribal gambling rules, or both. The table sets out how each side frames the question along four axes that recur in the reporting and in the bill materials.
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| Axis | Sponsors, gaming and tribal interests | Industry-side arguments |
|---|---|---|
| Contract scope | Targets contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style games | Sports contracts can have commercial value beyond gambling; event contracts also cover political and cultural events |
| Regulatory authority | State and tribal gambling authority should apply; critics say the CFTC has abdicated enforcement against illegal gaming on prediction markets | Federal regulatory authority over federally registered markets |
| Rule status | The 2011 CFTC rule addresses event contracts involving gaming; the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act would add a statutory prohibition | Not stated in the reporting beyond its emphasis on federal authority |
| Claimed consequences | Contracts function as gambling and can undermine consumer protection, tribal sovereignty and state regulatory interests | Commercial utility and market value |
The rule, enforcement and pending bill
The 2011 CFTC rule
The rule described in the reporting addresses event contracts involving gaming. The current controversy concerns how that rule applies to sports contracts, how the CFTC enforces it, and where federal oversight ends and state or tribal gambling authority begins.
The gap in the rule is narrower than the overall dispute. Commissioner Kristin Johnson said in a 2025 farewell speech, as quoted by Ars Technica, that the commission had not advanced a final rule on political event contracts during her tenure.
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Enforcement and the agency’s posture
Most of the criticism of federal enforcement in the sources comes from the bill’s sponsors and from a state gaming regulator. The sources do not set out a formal, current CFTC interpretation of sports contracts, so the enforcement picture is the critics’ account rather than an agency position. Their statements are quoted below.
The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act. Their offices describe it as prohibiting CFTC-registered entities from listing contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style games. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto joined in support. The sources describe the bill as introduced and do not report it passing either chamber.
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The volume and participation figures
Every figure below comes from a party to the dispute, so the source is part of the number. None is an agency statistic.
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| Figure | Value and period | Attributed to | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lobbying and campaign contributions | At least $3 million across federal and state levels, 2026 | OpenSecrets, as reported by Ars Technica | Report-attributed estimate; not presented as a total for Lincoln’s firm or Kalshi alone |
| March Madness winner-contract trading volume | More than $100 million, 2026 | Office of Senator Adam Schiff, press release | Sponsor’s figure in advocacy material |
| Super Bowl prediction-market trading volume | More than $1 billion, 2026 | Office of Senator Adam Schiff, press release | Sponsor’s figure in advocacy material |
| Kalshi platform action in the 2025–26 football season | Nearly 50%, 2025–26 season | Levant, Senate hearing testimony, 2026, citing secondary references | Advocacy testimony; not independently verified and not an industry-wide measure |
| Share of weekly prediction-market platform action that is sports contracts | Estimated nearly 80%, 2026 | Levant, Senate hearing testimony, 2026 | Advocacy estimate; not independently verified |
What officials and critics have said
- Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, in an official Senate press release (2026): "For the entirety of President Trump’s second term, the CFTC has abdicated its responsibility to prevent illegal gaming on prediction markets."
- Sen. Adam Schiff, in an official Senate press release (2026): "Sports prediction contracts are sports bets — just with a different name."
- CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson, in a 2025 farewell speech as quoted by Ars Technica: "I am disappointed that during my time at the commission, we were not able to successfully advance a final rule that addressed the introduction of political event contracts."
- Kevin O’Toole, executive director of the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, in a letter to the CFTC as quoted by Ars Technica: "For more than 14½ years, the CFTC acted in a manner which addressed Senator Lincoln’s concerns… Today, the landscape has deteriorated."
What the sources do not establish
- Lincoln’s personal lobbying activity. The reporting describes her firm’s work for Kalshi. This article does not reproduce the firm’s disclosure filings or the full text of Lincoln’s 2010 remarks, so details beyond Ars Technica’s account are not stated.
- Whether sports event contracts are derivatives, gambling, or both. No court ruling or enacted statute in the sources settles that question.
- The current status of the rule and the bill. The sources describe a changing policy and litigation environment, so confirm current status in official congressional records and CFTC announcements.
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