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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsBitcoin’s recovery no longer sits below the key cost-basis levels that defined the July 2026 downturn: Glassnode reported in late September that price was above both the short-term-holder realized price and the True Market Mean. That reclaimed ground is not proof of a durable recovery. Glassnode’s September 30 report pointed to overhead selling and muted trading activity, while its July reports had already warned that a single improvement would not establish a bottom.
What “underwater” means for Bitcoin holders
In on-chain analysis, a holder cohort is considered underwater when Bitcoin’s market price is below that cohort’s estimated realized price. Glassnode defines realized price as the aggregate price at which coins last moved on-chain, an estimate of average acquisition cost—not a verified record of what each investor paid.
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The short-term-holder (STH) and long-term-holder (LTH) groups are separated by a 155-day movement threshold. Glassnode’s definitions exclude coins held in exchange reserves: coins moved within the previous 155 days fall into the STH group, while those not moved within that period fall into the LTH group. These are analytical groupings, not fixed lists of people. A coin can shift cohorts as time passes, and the cohort’s estimated cost basis can change as membership changes.
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How the stalled-recovery setup changed
July: price remained below both reference levels
In its July 8, 2026 report, Glassnode said Bitcoin had spent about five months below the True Market Mean and the STH cost basis. At that report’s reference point, the levels were $76,600 and $72,200, respectively. Bitcoin had rebounded from $58,300 to $64,400 over the preceding week but was still below both. Glassnode identified realized price near $53,000 as a possible lower band, not a guaranteed floor.
The pressure was not limited to newer holders. Glassnode reported that the LTH share of total realized value from loss realization had risen from 15% in early February 2026 to 43% by July 8. Entity-adjusted LTH realized losses were about $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022, and Glassnode said that pressure had not yet cooled meaningfully. Its July report described the state of the decline this way: “The bottoming process is advancing, but not yet complete.”
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Mid-July: capitulation eased, but confirmation was lacking
On July 15, Glassnode said LTH capitulation had turned down from its peak and buyers had absorbed the June lows. It also cautioned that one turn did not establish that selling was exhausted. Derivatives traders were unwinding downside bets, but Glassnode had not yet seen that move followed by spot buying.
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Late September: key levels were back below price
Glassnode’s September 23 report said Bitcoin was above the True Market Mean, then at $77,000, and above the STH cost basis. The report placed the next major on-chain resistance near $96,700 and noted that ETF buying had picked up, while describing market confirmation as conditional.
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In its September 30 report, Glassnode put the STH cost basis at $73,300, with Bitcoin about 13% above it, and the True Market Mean at $77,200. These figures describe the report’s dated market snapshot, not a live quote. The report said its data cutoffs varied from September 28 to September 30 and could be revised.
What still made the recovery uncertain
Overhead selling
Glassnode identified a sell-order wall between $85,000 and $85,500 in its September 30 report. That indicates a concentration of sell orders at the time of the report; it is not a price ceiling or a forecast that Bitcoin must turn down there. The same report placed the next major on-chain resistance near $96,700 in its September 23 analysis, a different measure from the sell-order wall.
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ETF flows and trading volume
ETF buying had picked up by September 23, but Glassnode reported on September 30 that flows had faded after two days of roughly $1 billion in inflows. Total spot-market plus U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF volume averaged about $6.4 billion per day, which Glassnode described as near the low end of its range since spot ETFs launched. That combination matters because price holding above cost-basis levels without sustained flows or stronger volume is less persuasive evidence of broad demand.
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Long-term-holder selling pressure
The July LTH loss figures showed how severe the earlier stress had become, while the July 15 update indicated capitulation had turned down from its peak. Those readings do not establish that all long-term-holder selling pressure had ended. For a recovery assessment, the direction of realized losses matters: continued cooling would be more constructive than a renewed increase, but no single cohort metric establishes a market bottom.
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How to judge whether a recovery is gaining confirmation
- Track price against both references. Compare Bitcoin with the STH cost basis and the True Market Mean, rather than treating a brief crossing of one level as sufficient.
- Watch whether LTH realized losses keep cooling. A decline from elevated loss realization would suggest less forced selling than a renewed rise, but it is only one part of the picture.
- Look for sustained ETF demand. A couple of large inflow days are weaker evidence than flows that persist over time.
- Check spot volume alongside price. Expanding spot activity would make a move more convincing than price appreciation on subdued turnover.
Glassnode’s July and September 2026 reports provide dated snapshots rather than a price forecast. The latest report cited here is September 30, 2026; its figures should not be read as current October market data. A cohort crossing is a useful indicator of changing conditions, not proof that a durable recovery has arrived.
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