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Why the payments stack is drawing investor attention
Payments are spreading across more rails and more layers of software. A customer may see a wallet or an in-app checkout, while the payment underneath still travels over a card network. In other cases, money moves directly between bank accounts. Business software may also handle invoicing, reconciliation or financing around a transaction.
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That makes the investment question broader than which checkout button gains share. Investors are watching who controls the payment route, credentials and data, and which providers can turn those roles into durable revenue. McKinsey’s 2026 Global Payments Report estimates that global payments generated about $2.6 trillion in revenue from 3.8 trillion transactions and $2.1 quadrillion in annual value flows. Those figures describe market scale, not the returns available to any one company.
The report also says global payments revenue growth slowed from 11 percent annually through 2024 to 3 percent in 2025. McKinsey projects average annual growth of 4 percent over the following five years, below the prior decade’s 7 percent average. These are industry-wide estimates and forecasts; they do not establish how quickly any specific rail or provider will grow.
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What “beyond cards” includes
Card alternatives are not a single replacement system. They differ in how money moves, what infrastructure they rely on and where providers may earn revenue.
| Model | How it works | Investor question |
|---|---|---|
| Account-to-account (A2A) and instant payments | Money moves between bank accounts, often through a domestic payment system. India’s UPI and Brazil’s Pix are examples operating at scale. | Can providers make the economics work when transaction yields may be lower than card-based alternatives? |
| Open-banking payment initiation | A service initiates a payment from a bank account with the required customer authorization. | Can it gain acceptance while meeting local data-protection, consent and interoperability requirements? |
| Digital and local wallets | A wallet provides a digital payment experience. The underlying payment may use a card, an account transfer or another rail. | Who controls the customer relationship and payment routing—and which rail ultimately processes the transaction? |
| Embedded finance and commerce software | Financial services and payment functions are built into business software or another digital service. Providers may add invoicing, reconciliation, working-capital tools or fraud controls. | Can the provider earn from useful adjacent services, rather than relying only on transaction fees? |
| Agent-mediated commerce | Software agents may search, select and complete purchases with less visible human checkout activity. | If checkout becomes less visible, who supplies and monetizes credentials, consent, routing and transaction rules? |
These models can overlap. McKinsey’s 2025 report estimated that digital wallets accounted for about 30 percent of global point-of-sale volume in 2024. That is a wallet figure, not a measure of cardless payments: a wallet transaction can still use card rails. The same report estimated $2.5 trillion in global payments revenue, $2.0 quadrillion in value flows and 3.6 trillion transactions worldwide. Those are its 2025 report figures, not a like-for-like growth calculation against the later report’s estimates.
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Why the opportunity looks different by region
Payment adoption depends on local infrastructure, policy, regulation and customer habits. A model that competes effectively in one market may not have the same economics or acceptance elsewhere.
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- North America, the UK and Western Europe: McKinsey describes these as card-resilient markets, where acceptance, rewards and buyer protections help cards remain established.
- India and Brazil: Instant-payment systems such as UPI and Pix illustrate how domestic A2A networks can operate at scale.
- Parts of Africa: Mobile-money services developed in markets where traditional card networks had less reach, creating a different route to digital payments.
Visa’s 2025 strategy paper identifies real-time payments, A2A transfers, open-banking payments and local consumer wallets as cardless methods gaining traction. It presents potential benefits for merchants and financial institutions, not universal or guaranteed outcomes. Mastercard’s 2025 material cites an external forecast that global e-commerce A2A payments would grow at a 14 percent compound annual growth rate through 2027. That is a forecast attributed through Mastercard, not a measured result or proof that the rate was achieved.
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Where providers may capture value—and where margins can be squeezed
A payment rail can gain transaction volume without producing attractive profits for every participant. A2A and instant payments may offer lower transaction yields, while cards face fee pressure and scrutiny. Lower costs for a merchant do not, by themselves, show that a payment provider can maintain margins or replace revenue from another part of the stack.
Software and services can broaden the revenue opportunity. McKinsey’s 2025 report describes providers investing in invoice automation, reconciliation and working-capital tools, particularly where businesses still rely on manual processes. Global Payments’ 2026 trends summary also highlights embedded finance, expanded point-of-sale systems, instantaneous money movement, stablecoins for cross-border transactions and self-service. These are areas named in a company outlook, not evidence that each has reached broad adoption.
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McKinsey’s 2026 report argues that, if software agents complete transactions with little visible checkout interaction, value could shift toward machine credentials, consent management, routing and automated policy controls. This is a thesis about where future monetization might sit, not proof that these layers already capture a particular share of payment profits.
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AI adds both an efficiency case and a disruption risk
McKinsey estimates that agentic AI could put about $75 billion of global payments revenue at risk by 2030 under its baseline adoption scenario, rising to $160 billion under an aggressive scenario. The report attributes most baseline exposure to deposit net interest income and a smaller portion to consumer card revenue. These are modelled scenario estimates, not observed losses or certain outcomes.
The same report estimates up to $110 billion in annual operational productivity opportunity from generative and agentic AI across four payment-provider functions. That is potential, not realized savings. Whether a provider benefits depends on adoption, implementation costs and its ability to use the technology without weakening security or service.
Visa and Global Payments also describe agentic or cardless commerce as an emerging trend. Those company outlooks do not establish a settled consumer adoption path or identify a winner. Global Payments CEO Cameron Bready described commerce change as “steady innovation building upon itself” in the company’s December 11, 2025 announcement of its 2026 Commerce and Payment Trends Report.
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Rather than treating the market as cards versus everything else, compare payment models and providers on the factors that determine whether usage can translate into sustainable revenue.
- Geographic reach and acceptance: Assess a provider’s position in the markets and payment use cases that matter. Global card networks, domestic instant-payment systems, wallets and mobile-money schemes do not have identical reach.
- Revenue capture and transaction economics: Identify who earns fees, processing revenue or income from adjacent services. Higher volume on a lower-yield rail does not automatically mean higher profit.
- Customer experience and trust: Consider speed and checkout friction alongside authentication, fraud handling, dispute processes and buyer protections. These factors help explain why cards remain resilient in some markets.
- Integration and operating costs: More rails may require local connections, routing, reconciliation and technology investment. Revenue growth alone does not reveal whether those costs are manageable.
- Regulation and interoperability: Payment rules and data-protection frameworks vary by country, affecting which models can launch, connect and scale.
- Adjacent-service potential: Look for evidence that a provider can deliver valuable reconciliation, invoicing, working-capital, embedded-banking or fraud services—not just a broad claim that it operates in a growing market.
- Evidence behind forecasts: Separate reported results from company outlooks, external forecasts and scenario models. A projected market opportunity is not a company’s realized revenue or an investment return.
Cards are part of the changing market, not a vanished one
The evidence points to a more diverse payments market, with regional differences and competition over routing, services and economics. Cards retain advantages in acceptance, rewards and buyer protections in many markets, while other models address distinct needs or infrastructure gaps. Investors are looking across the stack because payment activity may shift among rails and software layers; the central question is which providers can capture value as it shifts, at what cost and under which local rules.
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