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Bajaj Finance has been one of the few large Indian stocks to hold its ground in 2026. According to an Economic Times article dated October 4, 2026, the share was down about 2% for the year, while the Nifty was down roughly 13%. The case for owning it rests on reported loan growth, improving asset quality and a proposed ₹17,500 crore capital raise that brokerages say could fund further expansion. That case is plausible. It is not a guarantee of returns, and most of the optimistic numbers below are broker estimates, not results.
How much has Bajaj Finance outperformed the Nifty?
The Economic Times article reports Bajaj Finance down about 2% in 2026 against a decline of nearly 13% for the Nifty, with the index falling about 6% in September alone. Treat these as dated figures from one news report, not live market data or an independently checked index series.
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The article blames the weak market on foreign selling, high US bond yields, elevated crude prices, a weak rupee and general risk aversion. It cites foreign outflows from Indian equities of $2.7 billion in September and $26.8 billion year to date. It adds that financial stocks also faced regulatory concerns. These are the article’s explanations. They do not prove that these forces alone explain how the stock behaved.
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What the company itself has reported
Bajaj Finance describes its business as consumer finance, personal loans, MSME, gold loans, vehicle financing and commercial lending. It says it uses technology and AI alongside a risk-focused culture.
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Q1 FY27 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)
- AUM: ₹400,388 crore, per the company’s investor presentation.
- Profit after tax: ₹5,346 crore.
- Capital adequacy: 20.90% including Tier II capital; Tier I capital was 20.01%.
The Economic Times adds that AUM grew 24% year on year, net interest margins were stable, asset quality was improving, credit costs were lower on guided lines and profit came in 5% above estimates. Those points are the article’s account, not figures quoted from the presentation here.
FY2026 annual report
| Metric | FY2026 figure |
|---|---|
| AUM | ₹509,975 crore |
| Net total income | ₹53,324 crore |
| PAT* | ₹20,689 crore |
| Gross NPA | 1.01% |
| Net NPA | 0.41% |
| ROE* | 19.2% |
| Customer franchise | 119.33 million |
*The company’s PAT and ROE exclude an additional ECL provision of ₹1,406 crore, management and macroeconomic overlays of ₹142 crore and a one-time New Labour Codes charge of ₹265 crore, all recognized in FY2026. Reported profit and ROE on an unadjusted basis would be lower.
One caution: the Q1 FY27 AUM figure (₹400,388 crore) is lower than the FY2026 year-end figure (₹509,975 crore), which does not square with 24% growth. The two numbers may be defined or presented differently. Check the AUM definition in the company’s filings before comparing them.
The ₹17,500 crore capital raise
The article says the board approved raising ₹11,700 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP) and ₹5,800 crore through warrants issued to promoter Bajaj Finserv. This is a proposal, not a completed transaction.
Will it dilute shareholders?
Yes, new equity increases the share count, but the article reports Jefferies estimating that the dilution is modest relative to the capital’s benefit:
- The raise is about 3% of market capitalization and 13% of estimated FY27 net worth.
- Estimated FY28 book value per share could rise about 8%.
- EPS would stay broadly flat, and ROE would fall marginally.
So the broker view is that the raise strengthens the balance sheet without lifting per-share earnings. Whether that is rewarded depends on how fast the new capital is deployed into loans.
Why raise capital now?
The article cites Jefferies noting leverage of 4.9 times and retained ROE of 17%. It suggests three possible motives: funding loan growth, the value of the reported 87% stake in Bajaj Housing Finance, and management succession expected in March 2028. These are the broker’s inferences. The company has not confirmed them as reasons in anything reviewed here.
What analysts expect
The article reports that UBS upgraded the stock from Sell to Neutral and raised its target price from ₹910 to ₹1,100, citing better asset quality and higher provision coverage. UBS forecasts EPS growth above 30% in FY27, slowing to the high teens in FY28. Jefferies’ estimates are above. These are external forecasts, not company guidance. A Neutral rating is also a long way from a strong buy call.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to test the thesis yourself
The available evidence gives selected operating and broker figures, not a full peer comparison or a valuation analysis. To judge whether the stock is likely to reward investors, check these in order:
- Growth: Is AUM growth around the reported 24% holding as the base gets larger?
- Credit quality: Do GNPA (1.01%), NNPA (0.41%), provision coverage and credit costs stay stable or improve?
- Capital: Does the raise complete on the proposed terms, and does capital adequacy stay near 20%?
- Profitability: Does EPS growth approach the UBS forecast, and does ROE stay close to the 19.2% adjusted level?
- Valuation: What price are you paying relative to book value and earnings, measured over the same dates as peers?
What the evidence does not settle
The market comparison, the capital-raise details and the brokerage views all come from a single October 4, 2026 article. The Nifty figures, the foreign flow totals, the board filing and the original Jefferies and UBS notes were not independently checked here. Relative resilience in a falling market also does not mean a stock can’t fall further, particularly if a QIP is priced at a discount or macro conditions worsen. This article is information, not personalised investment advice.
The Bottom Line
Bajaj Finance’s 2026 resilience is supported by strong reported capital ratios, low NPAs and a broker-endorsed capital raise. The expected reward, though, rests on forecasts: about 8% higher book value per share and fast EPS growth in FY27. Watch whether the raise closes and whether credit quality holds, because those two things decide whether the optimism is borne out.
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