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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Are baby lobsters disappearing in Maine? In the state’s central and midcoast waters, sampled baby lobsters fell 80% from 2010 to 2022. A University of Maine analysis found that the decline was followed by a 70% drop in young lobsters and a 50% decline in lobsters large enough for fishermen to catch. The sequence is a warning signal for the midcoast, not proof of a coastwide collapse or a fixed number of years of advance notice.
What the University of Maine study found
Researchers from the University of Maine and the Maine Department of Marine Resources (DMR) aligned independent surveys that use scuba divers, traps and trawls. Each survey samples different life stages and depths, so the percentages describe separate measures rather than the survival of one tracked group of lobsters.
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| Life stage | Reported change | Time window or qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Baby lobsters | 80% decline | Sampled from 2010 through 2022 |
| Young (adolescent) lobsters | 70% decline | Since 2015 |
| Lobsters large enough to catch | 50% decline | Decline occurred after the earlier life-stage changes; the news release does not specify a complete start window |
The study defines young lobsters as animals with shell lengths of 45–83 millimeters (1.8–3.3 inches). It was published in Marine Ecology Progress Series by Jarrett and colleagues in 2026.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesThe analytical value is the ordering of the trends: baby-lobster numbers fell first in the midcoast, then adolescent numbers, followed by adults in the size range targeted by the fishery. You should not add or multiply the three percentages; they come from different surveys and periods.
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Where the signal is strongest
Midcoast and central Maine
The clearest linked decline runs from Brunswick to the Schoodic Peninsula. Baby, adolescent and catchable-adult trends moved in the same direction there, making the early-life-stage change a potentially useful indicator for this region.
Downeast Maine
Baby-lobster numbers also declined from 2010, but the adult decrease was smaller and adolescent results varied. Lower sample counts and slower, more variable growth may make a consistent pattern harder to detect in eastern waters.
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Southern Maine
Samples across life stages were comparatively stable since 2010. The report notes that deep water in southern Maine remains too cold for lobsters even as surface temperatures rise, so the amount of newly suitable territory has changed less than it has farther east.
| Region | Pattern across life stages | Important context |
|---|---|---|
| Brunswick to Schoodic Peninsula | Strongest and most consistent decline | Warmer water, faster growth and expanded use of deeper habitat |
| Downeast | Baby decline; adolescent results variable; smaller adult decline | Fewer samples and slower, variable growth can obscure the signal |
| Southern Maine | Relatively stable since 2010 | Deep water remains comparatively cold, limiting habitat change |
How warming water may be involved
Warmer water has changed lobster growth rates and habitat use in midcoast and Downeast Maine. In particular, more suitable conditions at greater depths have encouraged lobsters to use deeper areas. That shift can affect where lobsters live and how many appear in a survey.
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Robert Jarrett II, the study’s lead researcher, said central Maine showed the clearest links among baby, adolescent and adult lobsters during a boom and subsequent decline tied to warmer water temperatures. He also said faster growth there creates a more consistent signal than in eastern Maine, where growth is slower and more variable.
Those observations establish an association with warming-driven growth and habitat shifts, not proof that temperature alone caused every decline. Lobster behavior, habitat preference and survey design all influence the counts.
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Why a survey can show fewer lobsters without measuring deaths
Divers, traps and trawls cover particular places and depth ranges. If lobsters redistribute into deeper habitat, a survey that samples mostly shallower grounds may encounter fewer animals even when some have moved rather than died. The study therefore treats the baby-lobster trend as an early indicator for the midcoast while cautioning against reading it as a guaranteed coastwide forecast.
The analysis demonstrates that one life-stage trend preceded others; it does not establish a fixed number of warning years, a formal management threshold or a coastwide rule that applies equally from southern Maine to the Canadian border.
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What it means for Maine’s lobster fishery
Maine DMR has more than 40 years of information on catch, discards, bycatch and natural lobster populations. It uses those records in stock assessments and other studies. The new analysis can add an earlier recruitment signal to that existing monitoring system, especially in the midcoast, but it does not set quotas or determine a management action by itself.
Kathleen Reardon, a senior lobster-fishery scientist with DMR, said the agency leads multiple surveys covering lobsters across their full life cycle as part of a comprehensive coastwide approach. Jarrett described American lobster as one of the world’s most data-rich fisheries while noting that sampling is still expanding to support a sustainable fishery and track environmental change.
The economic stakes are substantial: the University of Maine report says Maine lobster landings generated more than $461 million in 2025. That figure explains why earlier information about recruitment matters, but the study does not convert its percentage changes into a predicted dollar loss.
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What readers should watch next
- Whether future baby-lobster surveys continue to fall or stabilize in the Brunswick-to-Schoodic region.
- Whether adolescent and adult trends continue to follow the same sequence.
- How much additional sampling reaches deeper habitat where lobsters are increasingly found.
- Whether DMR incorporates the early-life-stage signal into future stock assessments or monitoring decisions.
For now, the defensible conclusion is regional: a sharp fall in sampled baby lobsters preceded major losses at later life stages in central and midcoast Maine. It is an important warning about recruitment and environmental change, but not a coastwide prediction of when or how far the fishery will decline.
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