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ASML raised its 2026 total-net-sales outlook to €43 billion–€45 billion on July 15, up from the €36 billion–€40 billion range issued in April. The increase reflects stronger-than-expected demand across its installed base and a semiconductor outlook increasingly supported by AI infrastructure spending. ASML’s latest forecast implies a midpoint of €44 billion, €6 billion above the April midpoint.
How much did ASML raise its 2026 forecast?
ASML revised its guidance twice during the first half of 2026. The progression shows how quickly customer demand expectations changed:
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| Date | 2026 sales guidance | Midpoint | Stated context |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 28, 2026 | €34 billion–€39 billion | €36.5 billion | Issued with FY2025 results |
| April 15, 2026 | €36 billion–€40 billion | €38 billion | Semiconductor outlook solidified as AI infrastructure investment increased |
| July 15, 2026 | €43 billion–€45 billion | €44 billion | Higher installed-base revenue and stronger customer commitments |
Compared with the April range, the July update lifted the lower bound by €7 billion and the upper bound by €5 billion. The midpoint rose by €6 billion, or about 15.8%. Compared with the January midpoint, the July midpoint is €7.5 billion higher.
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What ASML reported in the second quarter
For the second quarter of 2026, ASML reported €9.3 billion in total net sales, a 54.0% gross margin and €2.9 billion in net income. The company said higher-than-expected Installed Base Management sales were the main reason quarterly performance exceeded its expectations. Installed Base Management covers services and support for systems already operating at customer fabs, so it can provide revenue even while new-system shipments are being scheduled.
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ASML’s full-year gross-margin expectation accompanying the new sales outlook was 54%–56%. That range is a forecast for the year, not a statement that every quarter will produce the same margin.
Why AI spending increases demand for ASML equipment
ASML does not manufacture AI processors. It supplies lithography systems used by chipmakers to print extremely small circuit patterns on silicon. The demand chain described by the company is therefore indirect:
- Ongoing investment in AI infrastructure and progress in AI technologies increase demand for advanced computing.
- Chip manufacturers respond by expanding production of advanced logic devices and high-performance memory.
- More wafer capacity requires additional lithography systems, service contracts and upgrades across the fab.
ASML President and CEO Christophe Fouquet said: “Ongoing AI-related investments and continued progress in AI technologies are driving demand for advanced Logic and Memory chips, further strengthening the semiconductor industry’s growth outlook.” In practical terms, AI spending is supporting orders for both leading-edge equipment and the installed-base services attached to systems already delivered.
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What the order and capacity signals show
Strong first-half order intake
ASML said order intake remained extremely strong in the first half of 2026. It also reported that customer commitments across its portfolio increased visibility into longer-term demand. Commitments improve planning confidence, but they are not identical to recognized revenue: shipment timing, customer acceptance and production capacity still determine when sales are recorded.
Planned 2027 additions
To meet expected demand, ASML planned to add 30% to two major capacity areas for 2027:
| Product area | Approximate 2026 systems | Planned 2027 increase |
|---|---|---|
| Low-NA EUV | About 65 systems | 30% additional capacity |
| DUV immersion | About 130 systems | 30% additional capacity |
ASML was also investigating another 30% increase for 2028. These are capacity plans rather than guaranteed annual shipment totals; execution depends on suppliers, manufacturing throughput and customer readiness.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Is AI demand for chipmaking equipment sustainable?
The evidence supports a stronger near- and medium-term outlook, but it does not remove the semiconductor industry’s normal cyclicality. AI demand is more durable when it translates into multiyear fab construction, memory expansion and signed customer commitments rather than short-lived orders from a small number of buyers.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchSeveral indicators in ASML’s update point in that direction: demand spans advanced logic and memory, service revenue from the existing installed base exceeded expectations, order intake was strong through the first half, and customers increased longer-term commitments. ASML’s planned capacity additions for 2027—and its investigation of a further increase for 2028—also show that the company is planning against demand it expects to persist beyond one quarter.
There are still limits to what the guidance proves. AI infrastructure budgets can be revised, chip inventories can overshoot demand, and lithography deliveries can move between quarters. ASML’s forecast is therefore best read as evidence of robust current demand and improved visibility, not a guarantee that AI-related growth will continue at the same rate indefinitely.
How the new outlook compares with ASML’s FY2025 base
ASML entered 2026 after reporting FY2025 sales of €32.7 billion, net income of €9.6 billion and a backlog of €38.8 billion. The July 2026 sales range is above that prior-year revenue level even at its lower bound, indicating the scale of growth ASML now expects as AI-related chip investment feeds through its equipment and services business.
Quick Recap
What to watch next
- Whether quarterly order intake stays strong across both logic and memory customers.
- How quickly ASML converts customer commitments into shipments and recognized revenue.
- Progress toward the planned 2027 low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity increases.
- Whether the company approves or expands the additional 30% capacity investigation for 2028.
- Gross-margin performance within the 54%–56% full-year target range.
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