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Not on the share-price declines alone. LiveMint reported on 5 October 2026 that Asian Paints was down 15.5% year to date, Kansai Nerolac 25.01% and Berger Paints India 14.34%. Those figures do not support the headline claim of a fall of up to 27%, and a decline does not establish that a share is undervalued. The case for buying depends on valuation, consumer demand, dealer inventories, competition and whether margins hold up as input costs rise.
What the reported declines do—and do not—tell investors
The percentages below are figures LiveMint reported on 5 October 2026. Its accessible report passage does not provide enough detail to independently confirm the start and end dates or whether the calculations use adjusted prices. Treat them as reported market snapshots, not a verified comparison of total returns.
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| Company | Reported year-to-date change | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| Asian Paints | Down 15.5% | LiveMint, 5 October 2026 |
| Kansai Nerolac | Down 25.01% | LiveMint, 5 October 2026 |
| Berger Paints India | Down 14.34% | LiveMint, 5 October 2026 |
A fall can make a stock worth reassessing, but it says nothing on its own about the price investors are paying relative to normalized earnings or cash generation. The available figures do not establish a comparable valuation ranking for these companies. Investors would need current share prices and a consistent earnings basis to make that comparison.
Diwali demand: distinguish restocking from sales to consumers
Elara Securities’ channel checks, as reported by LiveMint on 5 October, described soft demand through the quarter, a weak August and some improvement in September as dealers began stocking premium paints ahead of the festive season. Dealer inventory was estimated at 2.5–3 months, against a normal 1.5–2 months. Secondary sales had yet to show meaningful improvement, while dealers had cut purchases in August.
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That distinction matters for interpreting a seasonal pickup. A manufacturer’s sales to dealers can rise when retailers rebuild stock, even before consumers buy more paint. With inventory above the cited normal range, dealers may also need to sell down stock before placing fresh orders. The useful confirmation is sustained consumer sell-through and volume growth, not just higher pre-festival shipments.
What the Q2 FY27 figures represent
The numbers below are Elara Securities estimates reported by LiveMint on 5 October 2026. They are forecasts, not actual Q2 FY27 results or company guidance. Revenue growth can also reflect price increases, so it should not be read as equivalent to volume growth.
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| Measure | Elara estimate reported by LiveMint |
|---|---|
| Paint industry volume growth | Mid-single digits year on year |
| Paint industry revenue growth | 12–13% year on year |
| Berger Paints revenue growth | 12.8%, supported by an average price increase of around 8% |
| Kansai Nerolac revenue growth | 12% |
| Asian Paints decorative-business revenue growth | 10%, with volume growth around 5% |
These estimates point to expected revenue growth, but the difference between industry revenue and volume estimates shows why investors should examine both. Company filings and reported results are the way to check what actually happened; brokerage forecasts should remain clearly separate from those outcomes.
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Dealer schemes and product mix
LiveMint’s account of Elara’s channel observations described elevated competition in July and August, followed by some moderation in Birla Opus dealer schemes during September. It also reported Elara’s view that Asian Paints’ Neo Bharat had a lower landed dealer price than regular distemper, potentially reversing some of the company’s Q1 mix gains. These are brokerage and channel observations, not independently verified market-share findings. The reported material does not provide comparable audited market-share data for the three companies.
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Crude-linked costs and margins
LiveMint reported Brent crude at around $70 a barrel in early July and nearly $97 by the end of September 2026. That is a dated, volatile market observation, not a durable cost assumption. Higher crude can add pressure to input costs; the effect on any company depends on its costs, pricing, product mix and timing.
Elara expected earlier price increases to provide some cushion, but forecast year-on-year Q2 EBITDA margin declines across its paint coverage. The company estimates diverged:
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| Company or group | Expected Q2 FY27 EBITDA margin change | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| Elara paint coverage universe | Down around 70 basis points year on year | Elara Securities, as reported by LiveMint on 5 October 2026 |
| Asian Paints | Down around 117 basis points | Elara Securities, as reported by LiveMint on 5 October 2026 |
| Kansai Nerolac | Down around 49 basis points | Elara Securities, as reported by LiveMint on 5 October 2026 |
| Berger Paints | Up around 50 basis points, on a favorable base | Elara Securities, as reported by LiveMint on 5 October 2026 |
Elara also expected margins in Q3 to improve with growth and mix. That is a forecast, not confirmation that the improvement will occur. Investors can compare it with reported results as they become available.
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A decision framework for the three stocks
There is no supported blanket buy call here. A useful comparison starts with questions that current prices and company results can answer:
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- Ready to use, pre-mixed door and trim paint offers a fresh new look on interior or exterior metal, wood and fiberglass
- Water-based paint formula emits less odor and withstands fading for a long lasting finish
- Dries to the touch in 45 minutes, up to 3X faster than traditional oil-based paints
- Durable, chip resistant coating provides ultimate protection with modern curb appeal
- Beautiful satin door paint is available in 6 pre-mix color options for the perfect look
- Valuation: Compare each share’s current valuation using the same dated price and a consistent, normalized earnings and cash-generation basis. Ask whether the market price already assumes a recovery; the reported declines do not answer that question.
- Demand quality: Look for volume and consumer sell-through, not only revenue growth or shipments into dealer channels. Check whether the elevated inventory described in the channel checks is normalizing.
- Competitive position: Track the effect of dealer schemes, discounting and lower-priced products on volume, mix and market share. The reported observations do not establish a like-for-like market-share comparison.
- Margins: Compare actual reported margins with the brokerage forecasts and assess whether price increases and product mix offset input-cost pressure.
- Evidence after Diwali: Look for sustained sales and fresh dealer orders after the festive stocking period. One round of restocking is not evidence of a durable demand recovery.
Where to verify company results
Use the companies’ investor-relations materials for reported results and management statements, and keep those separate from brokerage estimates. Asian Paints’ investor page identifies its financial year as 1 April to 31 March. Kansai Nerolac’s financial-information page lists its FY2026 annual report and financial-result materials. The material available here does not reconcile all relevant Q1 FY27 figures across all three companies, so a company-by-company decision requires checking the underlying filings.
LiveMint’s article carried this disclaimer on 5 October 2026: “This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint.”
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