Sometimes, but they are not a dependable investment. LEGO sets have appreciated in historical studies and resale-market estimates, yet those gains vary by set and do not account for the full cost of buying, storing and selling. For adult collectors, the soundest approach is to buy sets you will enjoy owning or building and treat any resale gain as uncertain upside.
What historical returns do LEGO sets show?
Academic studies suggest that LEGO sets have produced substantial returns in particular historical samples. Victoria Dobrynskaya and Julia Kishilova reported an average annual return of at least 11%—8% after inflation—for LEGO sets in their 1987–2015 dataset. Their study also reported a positive multifactor alpha of 4%–5% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.4. These are findings from that historical period, not current expected returns or after-cost results for an individual collector. Read the study record and abstract.
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A 2020 study by Shanaev, Shimkus, Ghimire and Sharma found that, in its historical dataset, smaller sets and sets with lower price-to-piece ratios exhibited higher yields. The authors also associated older sets with higher returns, which they described as a liquidity effect. These historical relationships do not establish that choosing a small set or a low price-per-piece set today will be profitable. The accessible abstract does not support a more detailed account of the study’s methods or findings. Read the study record and abstract.
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What happened to estimated values after retirement?
Brickfact’s study, using data through September 4, 2026, compared estimated values for sealed sets in their retirement month with estimated values at later points. Its figures describe estimated market-value changes—not completed-sale proceeds, an owner’s return, or a forecast. The qualifying sample differs by time horizon.
#1 Best Overall
- Engage your kids in pretend play by letting them build their own play toys, such as creating a toy house or toy scooter. This classic creative kit of LEGO bricks comes includes 33 different colors of bricks
- This brick box includes 8 different types of toy windows and toy doors, 2 green baseplates and 6 toy tires and toy wheel rims to create hours of creativity for kids
- Kids will become creative builders as they use these color toys to build a figure or build a castle while also engaging in kids playtime
- The large build and play LEGO Creative Brick toy playset is compatible with all LEGO construction sets for never-ending creative play
- The green baseplates in this build it yourself set measure over 6-inch long and 6-inch wide, and 4-inch long and 2-inch respectively. Kids will get to build and play with 790 pieces and is ideal for boys and girls of any age
| Time after retirement | Median estimated value change | Sets in sample | Additional context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | +22.3% | 3,117 | 18.8% had no positive change. |
| 24 months | +41.0% | 2,836 | The middle half of observed changes ranged from +13.5% to +91.4%. |
| 60 months | +96.9% | 1,882 | The middle half ranged from +47.3% to +175.6%. |
| 120 months | +157.1% | 695 | This cohort comprises sets retired in 2011–2016, not current releases. |
The wide spread matters as much as the medians: a typical value change in a sample does not tell you what a particular set will fetch. Brickfact’s results omit purchase prices, fees, postage, storage costs, taxes, damage and inflation. Sets also needed enough price observations at both comparison points to qualify, which can underrepresent sets that trade infrequently. Brickfact cautions that the results show an association and do not prove retirement caused prices to rise. Read Brickfact’s study.
What does the resale market include?
Reselling LEGO is not limited to sealed boxed sets. WILCO Toys estimates the 2024 LEGO resale market at $705 million, drawing on tracked secondhand sales on eBay and BrickLink, selected brick-and-mortar stores and additional inputs for its total-market estimate. It estimates that new-in-box sets account for about 30% of activity, while parts and minifigures together account for almost 60%. These are WILCO’s estimates, not an independently audited census of all resale transactions. See WILCO’s market research and resale index.
Rank #2
- Fun and Engaging - Kids will spend hours engaging in pretend play with this medium-sized building kit. Create toy trains or tiger figurines with this classic collection of LEGO bricks in 35 different colors
- Endless Builds - This creative toy for boys and girls includes windows, toy eyes, 18 tires and toy wheel rims that can be placed on a green baseplate for kids to role-play; plus the container can be used as toy storage
- Imaginative Play - Kids can use their imagination, picking an assortment of bricks to bring to life any building toy they want with these colorful toys, fostering kids' playtime and building creativity throughout the process
- Cross Compatible - Kids won't have to stop the role play with just the LEGO Creative Brick playset as these building toys are compatible with all LEGO construction sets.
- Fun for Everyone - In this 484-piece kit, the green baseplate measures over 3 inches long and 6 inches wide; for boys and girls between the ages of 4 and 99 years old
WILCO’s 2024 account names Star Wars, Collectible Minifigures, Super Heroes, Creator and NINJAGO among popular aftermarket themes. That is market context, not a ranking of future investment prospects. The LEGO Group’s record 2024 revenue—DKK 74.3 billion, up 13% year over year—also says nothing by itself about whether a particular retired set will appreciate. See the LEGO Group’s 2024 results.
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How to judge a set before buying it for resale
Start with the price you would actually pay and plausible proceeds from a completed sale—not a listing’s asking price or a market-value estimate. Compare the same set, condition and geography, and check whether comparable items sell often enough to make the quoted value realistic.
Rank #3
- Car building toy for boys and girls – Young vehicle lovers can build and customize their own vehicles with the LEGO Classic Creative Vehicles car toy for kids ages 5 and up
- Truck and car LEGO sets – Kids use building bricks to create a police car toy, ice-cream truck, ATV, front loader, truck, station wagon, off-roader and a limo
- Inspire young builders – Special pieces, including 52 wheels, and simple step-by-step instructions encourage kids to customize their vehicles
- Endless creativity – Includes 10 ideas to kick-start free-building fun, so kids can take their creative construction to the next level
- LEGO car gift – Kids who like police cars, construction trucks, limo car toys and other vehicles will love to receive this building-bricks toy as a birthday, holiday or any-day gift
- Work out your cost basis. Include the purchase price, shipping and any tax you pay. A discount from retail matters only in relation to your full acquisition cost.
- Check demand and alternatives. Consider demand for the specific set and whether similar or replacement sets remain available. Theme popularity is context, not a guarantee.
- Account for the holding period. Retirement timing is uncertain, and a retailer may continue selling existing inventory after production ends. There is no assured price jump on a particular date.
- Compare like with like. Brickfact’s figures cover sealed sets. A built set, damaged box, or set missing parts or minifigures is a different resale proposition.
- Consider liquidity. Look at how many comparable items actually sell and how long sales take. A high quoted value is of limited use if buyers are scarce.
- Subtract the costs of selling and holding. Include marketplace and payment fees, packing and postage, storage, damage risk, applicable taxes, and the cost of tying up your money.
A practical calculation is: net proceeds from a completed sale minus all-in purchase and holding costs. If you annualize your own result, base it on your actual cash flows and holding period; do not confuse that personal calculation with a market-wide return figure.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.So, should adult collectors treat LEGO as an investment?
Only with caution. The historical studies and estimated resale data show that appreciation is possible, but they do not establish a reliable return for sets bought now, or show that LEGO is a better substitute for a diversified investment portfolio. The evidence does not make every retired set a winner, and possible gross appreciation is not the same as money kept after costs.
Rank #4
- The first LEGO brick model of the Hogwarts Castle and Grounds (76419) – Recreate the most iconic location with this buildable LEGO Harry Potter display set
- Scale model – Build and display Hogwarts Castle and its surrounding area, including the Main Tower, Astronomy Tower, Great Hall, courtyards, bridges, greenhouses, Boathouse and the Black Lake
- Revel in details – Check out the Chamber of Secrets, The Winged Key room, Potions Classroom and Chessboard Chamber, plus the Durmstrang Ship, Beauxbatons Carriage, Whomping Willow and Ford Anglia
- Gift idea – Treat yourself or give this 2,660-piece buildable display model to adult Harry Potter fans and collectors as a holiday gift, birthday present or special surprise
- Collectible Harry Potter building set for adults – This LEGO Harry Potter model kit is part of a large assortment of LEGO Sets for Adults who enjoy hands-on, mindful activities to relax and unwind
If you would be happy to build, display or keep a set even if its resale value does not rise, buying it can make sense as a hobby purchase. If profit is the main goal, assess actual completed sales and your full costs before committing money—and be prepared for an uncertain price and sale timeline.
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Quick Recap
Best Value
- Compatible with All Sets - LEGO Classic toy building sets are compatible with all LEGO construction sets, making this a great addition to preschool and elementary school classrooms for sparking creativity and learning
- Fosters Open-Ended Creativity - This LEGO Classic creative tool set for kids encourages open-ended creativity and imagination, making it an ideal starter set for budding LEGO builders aged 4 years and older
- Additional Resources Online - Access extra building instructions, fun videos, ideas, and inspiration to further enhance your child's LEGO building experience
- Sturdy Yellow Suitcase - This LEGO Classic toy set features a durable yellow suitcase with convenient sorting compartments, perfect for organizing and storing building bricks, shapes, wheels, and eyes
- Suitcase Dimensions & Pieces - Measuring 10" (26cm) high, 11" (28cm) wide, and 2" (6cm) deep, this suitcase contains 213 LEGO pieces, providing endless building possibilities for boys and girls
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
