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Short answer: some direct-air-capture (DAC) cost estimates probably are too low, but “atmospheric carbon capture” has no single price. The 2025 IEAGHG assessment says several published operating-cost estimates are infeasibly low and puts energy provision alone at $43–97 per tonne of CO2 under its assumptions. That is not a complete removal cost. Depending on technology, energy, finance, geography and what the system boundary includes, credible estimates range from hundreds of dollars or pounds per tonne.
The most important distinction is between DAC capture and DACCS (direct air carbon capture and storage). Capture-only figures do not pay for transporting CO2 to a storage site, injecting it permanently, monitoring the site or building the supporting infrastructure.
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What “atmospheric carbon capture” means
Direct air capture removes carbon dioxide from ordinary ambient air rather than from a concentrated industrial exhaust stream. Fans or passive airflow move air through contactors containing a chemical solvent or solid sorbent. The material binds CO2, then heat, pressure changes or another regeneration step releases a concentrated stream for compression.
When that stream is permanently transported and stored, the process is called direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). A tonne captured from air is not automatically a tonne durably removed from the atmosphere: leakage, energy emissions, transport and storage performance determine the net result. Any cost claim should therefore state whether it covers the capture plant only or the complete DACCS chain.
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The cost numbers that can legitimately be compared
These figures come from different years, currencies, technologies and boundaries. They should be read as modeled estimates or assessments, not as a universal market price.
| Source and case | Technology or boundary | Published cost |
|---|---|---|
| International Energy Agency (2022), large-scale plant built today | DAC capture only | USD 125–335 per tonne of CO2 captured |
| CO2RE and ERM (2025), United Kingdom, 2030 low-to-high range | Liquid-solvent DACCS | £325–578 per tonne; medium scenario £440 |
| CO2RE and ERM (2025), United Kingdom, 2050 low-to-high range | Liquid-solvent DACCS | £169–405 per tonne; medium scenario £284 |
| CO2RE and ERM (2025), United Kingdom, 2030 low-to-high range | Solid-sorbent DACCS | £636–842 per tonne; medium scenario £735 |
| CO2RE and ERM (2025), United Kingdom, 2050 low-to-high range | Solid-sorbent DACCS | £259–489 per tonne; medium scenario £353 |
| IEAGHG (2025), energy component under its modeled assumptions | Energy provision only | $43–97 per tonne of CO2 |
| IEAGHG (2025), modeled global deployment | System cost for reaching 1 gigatonne of annual DAC capacity over 2020–2100 | $3.3–9.2 trillion cumulative |
The last IEAGHG figure is a scenario total, not a forecast or a full-chain invoice. The assessment says its system estimates omit CO2 transport and storage, measurement, reporting and verification (MRV), permitting and infrastructure buildout.
Why some published DAC estimates look too low
Energy is a floor, not a footnote
Ambient air contains far less CO2 than the flue gas handled by a point-source capture system. More air must be moved and processed to recover the same mass of CO2, increasing fan electricity and regeneration heat requirements. The IEAGHG energy range shows why an operating-cost claim below that level cannot represent the entire plant unless energy is being supplied under unusually favorable assumptions or excluded from the boundary.
Energy price is only half of the issue. Electricity and heat with high carbon intensity can reduce net removal, while low-carbon energy can cost more or be constrained by availability. A model that assumes cheap, continuously available clean heat may produce a lower number than a project facing real grid charges, transmission limits or seasonal operation.
Capital and operating costs are easy to undercount
DAC equipment includes air-contacting structures, fans, reactors, heat exchangers, pumps, controls, compression and site utilities. Large plants also need replacement sorbent or solvent, maintenance, labor, water management and downtime allowances. IEAGHG identifies uncertainty in capital expenditure, operating expenditure, energy carbon intensity and capital-cost learning as major reasons estimates diverge.
The CO2RE/ERM comparison attributes the higher 2030 solid-sorbent result to higher capital expenditure and non-fuel operating costs, particularly capture chemicals. That difference is a technology-specific result from a United Kingdom model, not proof that every solid-sorbent design will cost more everywhere.
Financial assumptions can change the answer before the plant changes
Two engineering designs can have different levelized costs because one model uses a lower cost of capital, longer asset life, higher utilization or more favorable debt terms. Construction risk, first-of-a-kind contingencies and the time required to reach steady operation also affect the amount of capital recovered per tonne. “Cost per tonne” without a financing case is incomplete.
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A capture-only estimate normally covers the equipment and energy needed to separate CO2 from air. A DACCS estimate should add the steps needed to make removal durable:
- conditioning and compressing the CO2 stream;
- connecting the plant to a pipeline, ship, rail or other transport system;
- injecting CO2 into a qualified geological storage site;
- monitoring storage behavior and reporting verified quantities;
- paying for permits, site characterization, liability and long-term stewardship; and
- building shared energy, water, roads, pipelines and other infrastructure.
Not every study includes every item. IEAGHG’s system-scale estimates exclude several of them, while the CO2RE/ERM DACCS scenarios incorporate transport-and-storage assumptions. Presenting the lower capture-only figure as the price of a verified permanent removal is therefore an apples-to-oranges comparison.
Liquid solvent and solid sorbent: why the modeled costs differ
Liquid-solvent systems circulate an alkaline or amine-based liquid through contactors. A regeneration step releases CO2 and returns the solvent to the process. Solid-sorbent systems pass air over porous solids whose surfaces bind CO2; heat, vacuum or humidity changes regenerate the material.
| Question | Liquid-solvent DAC | Solid-sorbent DAC |
|---|---|---|
| What binds CO2? | A circulating chemical solution | A porous solid material |
| CO2RE/ERM 2030 United Kingdom medium DACCS estimate | £440 per tonne | £735 per tonne |
| CO2RE/ERM explanation for the 2030 gap | Lower modeled capital and non-fuel operating costs in that scenario | Higher modeled capital expenditure and non-fuel operating costs, especially capture chemicals |
The table describes one modeled scenario. Actual costs depend on contactor design, sorbent or solvent life, heat source, plant scale, utilization and local construction and financing conditions. A technology label alone cannot establish a price.
How to test whether a DAC cost estimate is credible
Use the following sequence before comparing a headline number with another study:
- Identify the product. Is the number for tonnes captured, tonnes delivered to a storage site or tonnes verified as permanently removed?
- Record the technology. Note liquid solvent, solid sorbent or another process, along with the plant scale and maturity.
- Check the year and currency. Separate a plant built today from a 2030 or 2050 modeled plant, and do not compare pounds and dollars without stating the currencies and price basis.
- Read the energy case. Look for electricity price, heat price, heat source, carbon intensity, operating hours and assumptions about dedicated generation.
- Inspect capital and finance. Check utilization, construction contingency, financing rate, asset life, replacement schedules and learning assumptions.
- Map the boundary. Look specifically for compression, transport, storage, MRV, permitting and shared infrastructure.
- Ask what is measured. A modeled cost is not an observed commercial tariff. Check whether the value is a range, a medium scenario or a single optimistic case.
This checklist prevents a low capture-only estimate from being ranked against a higher DACCS estimate that includes the rest of the removal chain.
Can DAC costs fall below $100 per tonne?
The IEA’s 2022 assessment says deployment and innovation could bring capture costs below USD 100 per tonne in favorable conditions. That statement is conditional: it describes a possible outcome as technology scales and designs improve, not the cost of all projects operating today. The same assessment places a large-scale plant built today at USD 125–335 per tonne for capture.
Future reductions could come from larger and more reliable contactors, longer-lived capture materials, improved heat integration, lower-cost clean energy, standardized plant modules and cheaper financing. Those gains are not guaranteed. If energy, materials, permitting or storage infrastructure remain expensive, learning in the capture unit may not translate into an equally large decline in full-chain DACCS cost.
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What the 2025 evidence actually supports
IEAGHG concludes that “There is significant uncertainty in current cost estimates of direct air capture technologies.” That finding supports a cautious version of the title: underestimation is a credible concern for some published operating-cost claims, especially when energy or downstream costs are omitted. It does not support saying that every DAC estimate is wrong or that one technology has a universally correct price.
Best Value
The CO2RE/ERM results show how much the answer changes when the comparison is made explicit. In its United Kingdom 2030 medium scenario, liquid-solvent DACCS is modeled at £440 per tonne and solid-sorbent DACCS at £735 per tonne. By 2050, the corresponding medium values fall to £284 and £353, with broad ranges around each. These are scenario outputs that combine technology, energy, financing and scaling assumptions.
Implications for projects, policy and buyers of removals
Project developers
Publish a cost breakdown rather than a single blended figure. Separate capture energy, other operating costs, capital recovery, compression, transport, storage, MRV and site obligations. Show sensitivity to energy price, utilization, financing and material replacement. State the expected net tonnes removed after energy emissions and storage losses.
Policymakers
Support standardized reporting so grants, contracts and tax incentives do not compare incompatible boundaries. A policy paying for verified removals should define permanence, monitoring, liability and eligible energy sources, not merely tonnes passing through a capture unit.
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Corporate purchasers
Ask whether a quoted price covers a captured tonne or a verified stored tonne, which country’s rules apply, how storage is monitored and who carries reversal liability. A lower price may simply exclude services that another supplier has included.
A practical way to report a DAC cost
A defensible statement names the technology, geography, operating year, currency, scale and boundary in one sentence. For example: “The CO2RE/ERM 2025 United Kingdom medium scenario models 2030 liquid-solvent DACCS at £440 per tonne, including its stated transport-and-storage assumptions.” A separate sentence can then explain what the model does not establish, such as a universal price for plants in other regions.
That format preserves the useful number without turning a scenario into a promise. It also makes clear why the 2025 IEAGHG warning matters: when energy, finance or full-chain infrastructure is missing, an apparently cheap DAC estimate can understate what a durable atmospheric removal project must actually spend.
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