Probably—but only as a category-growth catalyst, not because Apple has already been proven to sell more Samsung phones. Foldables still represent about 2% of the global smartphone market, leaving room for Apple to attract first-time buyers while Samsung remains the forecast leader in 2026. The likely result is a larger premium foldable market in which Samsung keeps a substantial incumbent advantage.
Apple’s entry could enlarge the foldable market
Counterpoint Research forecasts more than 100 million cumulative foldable smartphone shipments worldwide by the end of 2026, but foldables would still account for only about 2% of all smartphones. That small base matters: Apple can add buyers who have never considered a foldable instead of taking every sale directly from Samsung.
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IDC forecasts 20.6 million foldable smartphone shipments in 2025 and 30% year-over-year category growth in 2026. IDC analyst Francisco Jeronimo describes Apple’s entry as a turning point because Apple has often helped unfamiliar product categories reach mainstream consumers. That is an interpretation of Apple’s likely market effect, not evidence that Samsung sales have already risen because of Apple.
TechRadar’s analysis reaches a similar possibility: early Apple demand may come primarily from existing iPhone owners upgrading to a foldable iPhone, rather than Galaxy Z Fold owners switching away. If that happens, Samsung benefits indirectly from greater consumer awareness, more retail attention and a larger accessory and software ecosystem.
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Samsung is still the forecast leader
Counterpoint’s September 7, 2026 forecast gives Samsung the largest share of global foldable shipments for the year. These are forecasts, not audited final sales.
| 2026 forecast | Samsung | Apple | Huawei |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global foldable shipment share | 38% | 25% | 22% |
| Potential Apple shipments | Up to 6 million units |
IDC’s December 9, 2025 forecast puts Apple above 22% of first-year foldable unit shipments but at 34% of industry value, with an expected average price of $2,400. The different percentages reflect different forecasts and methodologies; neither should be treated as a final market-share result.
Counterpoint’s panel forecast provides another view of supply. It expects 27.5 million foldable smartphone panels in 2026, about 24% more than in 2025. Samsung is forecast to rank first in panel procurement at 31%, while Apple could account for about 29% in its first year. Panel procurement is not the same as completed phone shipments, so these figures should not be combined into a single ranking.
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Galaxy Z Fold7 already shows Samsung momentum
Samsung has a measurable incumbent baseline before Apple’s product is established. Counterpoint’s US carrier-and-retail-panel dashboard estimates that Galaxy Z Fold7 sell-through was 36.6% higher than Galaxy Z Fold6 sell-through during the comparable first five months. The Fold7 launched in the United States on July 25, 2025, and the dashboard’s monthly data runs through July 2026.
Those numbers are sell-through estimates, not channel shipments, and Counterpoint says they can be revised. They show that the Fold7 reversed the previous generation’s US sales decline, but they do not show that Apple caused the increase. The Fold7 is therefore a useful measure of Samsung’s own product momentum, not proof of a one-to-one Apple-to-Samsung sales effect.
Why Samsung’s hardware lead still matters
Samsung has been developing book-style and clamshell foldables across multiple generations. That experience covers hinge durability, crease management, multitasking software, app support, service networks and everyday ergonomics. Apple’s first foldable generation would have to establish those basics while also meeting Apple’s standards for polish and battery life.
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Counterpoint says the market is moving toward wide, book-style in-fold devices. In-fold and clamshell designs were roughly at parity in 2025, but in-fold products have a clear lead in 2026. Larger screens support productivity and content consumption, and vendors can earn higher prices from them. Tri-fold phones remain showcase products because additional hinges add weight, manufacturing complexity and yield constraints.
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Apple’s projected 34% value share is higher than its projected first-year unit share above 22%. IDC’s expected $2,400 average price explains the difference: Apple may sell fewer devices than its unit share suggests while capturing a larger portion of industry revenue.
Counterpoint also expects Apple’s early ramp to be supply-constrained, with up to six million units in its 2026 forecast. Constrained availability would limit Apple’s immediate unit impact but could reinforce the product’s premium positioning. It also means early demand should not be mistaken for a stable long-term share until supply improves.
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Omdia’s smartphone figures are a separate signal
Omdia’s preliminary estimate for the third quarter of 2026 places Samsung at 23% and Apple at 22% of all global smartphone shipments. These are not foldable-only shares. Omdia says Samsung’s August 2026 Galaxy Z Fold8 and Galaxy Z Flip8 launches supported its premium positioning, while describing the iPhone Duo as Apple’s entry into foldables. Because the estimate is preliminary and covers the entire smartphone market, it cannot be used to replace the foldable forecasts above.
Should you buy a Galaxy Z Fold7 or wait?
Buy the Galaxy Z Fold7 when you need a foldable now
- The Fold7 is already available, with a known design, software support and accessory ecosystem.
- Counterpoint’s US sell-through estimate indicates stronger demand than the Fold6 during the comparable launch period.
- A current Samsung model avoids waiting for an Apple launch whose final name, timing, regional availability and supply have not been established here.
Wait for Apple when you value ecosystem continuity over certainty
- Waiting makes sense for an iPhone owner who wants to keep Apple services, apps and account integration.
- Apple’s forecast premium positioning suggests a high-priced first generation, and early supply may be limited.
- Do not assume waiting guarantees a specific release date, price or form factor; verify Apple’s announcement and local availability before making a purchase decision.
Check the practical trade-offs
Book-style foldables are designed for a phone-sized outer display plus a larger inner screen. They are useful for documents, multitasking and video, but they are generally heavier and more complex than conventional phones. Clamshell models prioritize pocketability. The best choice depends on whether expanded screen space or compact portability is the priority.
Samsung welcomes the competition
Samsung MX President and COO Won-joon Choi framed Apple’s arrival as beneficial competition in an interview reported by TechRadar in 2026:
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“You know, rather than focusing on the competition, I think we have been focusing on our consumers. What is the experience that we can bring to consumers, and how complete are those experiences? I think healthy competition with other companies will bring more innovations, and then bring more benefits to consumers. We are welcoming others to join this category, which we created back in 2019.”
That public position fits the market data: Samsung enters Apple’s debut with established products and momentum, while Apple could make more consumers consider a foldable for the first time.
What would prove the salesperson thesis?
The claim becomes stronger if Apple’s launch expands total foldable shipments while Samsung maintains or grows its unit volume. It becomes weaker if Apple mainly shifts premium buyers away from Galaxy Z Fold devices without expanding the category. The first evidence to watch is audited shipment data after Apple’s launch, followed by regional sell-through, supply availability and repeat purchases—not launch-week attention alone.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchFor now, the defensible conclusion is narrower: Apple may be Samsung’s best category-growth catalyst yet. Samsung remains the 2026 forecast leader, and the Fold7’s US momentum shows the company does not need Apple’s help to generate demand. Apple’s biggest contribution may be bringing millions of new shoppers to the foldable market, where Samsung is already waiting.
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