Yes. A 2026 study estimates at least a 0.92 probability that the Antarctic Ice Sheet will lose mass during this century, including under aggressive emissions cuts. But continued loss does not mean emissions no longer matter: the same study finds at least a 0.89 probability that higher emissions will cause greater Antarctic mass loss by 2100.
What the study means by continued Antarctic ice loss
The finding concerns the Antarctic Ice Sheet: the vast body of ice resting on land. When grounded ice flows into the ocean and melts, it adds water and contributes to sea-level rise. Floating sea ice and floating ice shelves are different; their melting does not directly add the same volume of water to the ocean as the loss of grounded ice.
The study’s probability refers to the likelihood of Antarctic mass loss over the 21st century. It does not mean every part of Antarctica will lose ice every year, nor does it say the ice sheet is beyond the influence of emissions choices.
Why the ice sheet can lose mass even as snowfall increases
Antarctica can gain ice through snowfall while losing mass overall. The balance also depends on ice flowing toward the ocean and on how much ice melts or breaks away. The IPCC’s 2021 assessment says dynamic losses driven by ocean warming and ice-shelf disintegration are likely to outpace increased snowfall this century.
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Ice shelves float at the coast and can slow the flow of grounded glaciers into the sea. When warming ocean water contributes to ice-shelf weakening or disintegration, that restraint can diminish, allowing more grounded ice to flow seaward. It is that dynamic loss of land-based ice—not simply the seasonal melting of floating ice—that matters for Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise.
What emissions cuts still change
The result is not that cuts are futile. In the 2026 study, the probability that higher emissions lead to greater Antarctic mass loss by 2100 is at least 0.89. The central distinction is between the likelihood of some loss and its eventual scale: the study finds continued loss very likely across the emissions pathways it examines, while also finding that higher emissions raise the risk of more loss.
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How much could Antarctica contribute to sea-level rise by 2100?
For a very-high-emissions pathway, the study estimates a median Antarctic contribution of 15.7 centimetres by 2100. Its 95th-percentile estimate is 25.4 centimetres. These figures are for Antarctica’s contribution alone, not total global sea-level rise.
| Result | What it says |
|---|---|
| Aggressive emissions reductions | At least 0.92 probability of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss during the 21st century; a sea-level contribution figure for this pathway is not stated here. |
| Higher emissions | At least 0.89 probability that higher emissions produce greater Antarctic mass loss by 2100. |
| Very high emissions | By 2100, a median Antarctic sea-level contribution of 15.7 cm and a 95th-percentile contribution of 25.4 cm. |
The 95th percentile is a high-end point in the study’s modeled distribution, not the most likely outcome or a hard maximum. It should not be read as interchangeable with the median.
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Why the projections have a range
The 2026 study used a machine-learning emulator trained on Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) simulations and calibrated it against satellite observations. Its projections reflect uncertainty at several stages, including climate forcing, climate-model output, ice-sheet behavior and sea-level physics. The authors found that ice-model features were, on average, the largest source of uncertainty in the raw simulations.
Choices such as how a model represents ice sliding and melting beneath ice shelves can affect projected losses. That uncertainty helps explain why estimates are presented as probabilities and ranges; it does not erase the study’s main result that mass loss this century is very likely.
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Why the study stops at 2100
The paper limits its emulator projections to 2100 because its ensemble is too small to capture strong nonlinear behavior that may emerge in the 22nd century. Its results therefore do not establish how much ice Antarctica will lose after 2100, or whether the same probabilities and estimates apply later.
The 2026 analysis updates the headline probabilities and its scenario-specific estimates. Earlier work provides context rather than a substitute: the IPCC’s 2021 assessment also judged that Antarctic mass loss is likely to continue across assessed scenarios, and a 2018 study found continued loss under warming constrained below 2°C while noting important uncertainties.
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