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A 2025 analysis of eight gravitationally lensed quasars offers an independent way to measure how fast the universe expands. University of Tokyo coverage reports about 4.5% precision and says the result is more consistent with present-day measurements than with estimates inferred from the early universe. That makes it a useful clue in the Hubble tension—not a resolution: the reported precision is still short of the roughly 1–2% target described as necessary to test the disagreement decisively.
What is the Hubble tension?
The Hubble constant describes the universe’s present-day expansion rate, commonly expressed in kilometers per second per megaparsec (km/s/Mpc). The Hubble tension is the persistent mismatch between values inferred using different methods and different eras of the universe.
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As rounded context, SciTechDaily’s 2025 account of the University of Tokyo work gives approximately 73 km/s/Mpc for nearby-galaxy measurements and approximately 67 km/s/Mpc for an inference from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the relic light from the early universe. These are illustrative values, not the exact result of the TDCOSMO analysis.
Why do the measurement methods disagree?
The methods do not simply measure the same nearby objects in different ways. Each builds an expansion-rate estimate from different observations and assumptions, so a mismatch could reflect unrecognized measurement uncertainties, limitations in a method’s model, or a physical explanation not yet established.
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Nearby-universe distance ladder
Local measurements use nearby calibrators to establish distances, then extend those measurements using objects such as supernovae in more distant galaxies. The resulting estimate is based on observations in the relatively recent universe.
Early-universe inference
CMB measurements observe conditions in the early universe. Deriving the present expansion rate from them requires a cosmological model that connects those early observations to the universe today.
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Strong-lensing time delays
Time-delay cosmography follows a different route: it uses the arrival times of multiple images of a distant quasar, created by a foreground galaxy’s gravity, together with a model of that galaxy’s mass. It can therefore provide an independent cross-check, though it has its own modeling uncertainties.
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- A foreground galaxy bends quasar light. A massive galaxy between Earth and a distant quasar acts as a gravitational lens, splitting the quasar’s light into multiple images.
- Changes arrive at different times. The light follows paths of different lengths through the lens, so variations in the quasar’s brightness appear in its images at different times.
- Researchers model the lens. They combine the measured time delays with a model of the foreground galaxy’s mass distribution.
- The combined evidence constrains expansion. The timing and lens model allow researchers to infer the expansion rate, giving a measurement route distinct from the distance ladder and CMB inference.
The lens model matters: different assumptions about how mass is distributed within the foreground galaxy affect the inferred result. That dependence is a key source of uncertainty, not a reason to dismiss the method; it is a condition researchers must constrain.
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What did the 2025 TDCOSMO analysis find?
The account of the study reports that researchers analyzed eight time-delay lens systems and achieved about 4.5% precision. It describes the resulting measurement as more consistent with other present-day observations and less consistent with early-universe measurements. The precise central value and uncertainty interval are not established in the accessible account, so the rounded 73 and 67 km/s/Mpc figures should not be mistaken for this study’s result.
The paper is identified as “TDCOSMO 2025: Cosmological constraints from strong lensing time delays,” published in Astronomy & Astrophysics on December 5, 2025 (DOI record). The reported methodology, figures and quotations are available in SciTechDaily’s December 10, 2025 coverage of the University of Tokyo research.
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Does this solve the Hubble tension?
No. About 4.5% precision is not the roughly 1–2% precision that the University of Tokyo coverage describes as a target for decisively testing the tension. The result adds a measurement that leans toward the present-day side of the disagreement, but it does not establish that the tension has been solved or that new physics is responsible.
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The next challenge is to increase the number of usable lens systems and refine the modeling, especially of lens-galaxy mass distributions. More systems and better-constrained models could improve precision; the reported analysis alone cannot determine whether the mismatch is due to new physics or unresolved uncertainties.
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